Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by melbgirl

I'm starting to turn into some kind of a forex guru....scary!!! I'm starting to buy GBP/JPY...maybe this time it will be better than it would have been two days ago...

That's pretty good value there compared to other Yen crosses, though there's still further downside at the moment. This pair is highly volatile with 400 pips a day range pretty common.

Originally Posted by cmellon

That's pretty good value there compared to other Yen crosses, though there's still further downside at the moment. This pair is highly volatile with 400 pips a day range pretty common.

Yep, it's looking rather dramatic tonight...good timing as Fridays are usually thin trading, so they can maximize the effect (I wonder if it's SNB intervention? Just guessing.) But some entites were definitely gunning to bring the EUR down earlier today.
I try to make it safer by doing a bit of scalping while establishing the positions I'm hoping to keep. Also EUR/AUD short is looking good.

Originally Posted by se1paul

I don't agree with unlimited government spending as a way to guarantee prosperity. However, I feel it is now time for governments to spend aggressively, in a coordinated fashion, in an attempt to offset some of the fall in private sector demand, rather than letting the economy suffer far greater damage further down the road, which will take longer to recover from and be more costly in the long run. This spending must also be done with other broader changes to address the global imbalances, otherwise we will revisit similar problems a few years from now.


Cheers, Paul

The Obama stimulus plan amounted to the entire individual taxes collected in the U.S. last year. Which do you think would be more stimulative, the government printing and spending or a one year tax holday on individual income taxes?

Originally Posted by qed

Which do you think would be more stimulative, the government printing and spending or a one year tax holday on individual income taxes?

How can the politicians LOOT the money if they are not allowed to print $$$ or bring in tax revenues to Treasury?! Come on!.... They want both! They will print as long as there are trees in Amazon Forest in Brazil! Best to invest in paper and ink-making companies...

Real stimulation? Job creation. People are ready to do any job. This is a great time for infrastructure development - laying new roads, bridges, dams, cleaning up dumping grounds.... since work force is available at low cost. Handing over money to banks? That is criminal at best.

Originally Posted by qed

The Obama stimulus plan amounted to the entire individual taxes collected in the U.S. last year. Which do you think would be more stimulative, the government printing and spending or a one year tax holday on individual income taxes?

Can you please show the source from where you obtained those figures from? I assume you are using $825 billion as the cost of the Obama plan, the cost and rollout of which is spread over three years?

Anyway, I would prefer to see a mixture of public spending projects and tax cuts spread out evenly over a period of time, say 12 months, where employees see a line on their payslips showing the regular rebate amount, hopefully leaving them feeling a little bit better off.

I would then like to see a large portion of money carefully spent on infrastructure projects, schemes that would provide employment, and benefit and support the productivity of the economy for years to come. I would include money to be set aside for retraining schemes in areas most affected by the decline in housing and local industries, parts of the country where unemployment is at its highest.

Hopefully, some of this infrastructure spending would help start to re-balance the economy, whereas an income tax holiday for one year would only provide the economy with much of the same: money flowing out of the US to gift significant benefits overseas economies, with all of the cost met by the US. Where is the long-term benefit in that? How does this even attempt to resolve the dangerous imbalances in the American economy?

The benefits to GDP growth from these tax rebates I outline above should be felt within a short space of time, after they expire the benefits to the economy from the infrastructure spending should hopefully begin to take effect.

I find it fascinating that the higher the NZDUSD and AUDNZD go the more the mini-lot traders short according to the SSI numbers. These small traders will have to cover those losing positions. This makes me think that the stock market will continue to surge higher because I think the same short selling and covering phenomenon is happening in the stock market. I'm not sure what this will mean for the EURUSD, but am wondering if improvements in the U.S. economy could be beneficial to the USD, finally.

Originally Posted by melbgirl

Yep, it's looking rather dramatic tonight...good timing as Fridays are usually thin trading, so they can maximize the effect (I wonder if it's SNB intervention? Just guessing.) But some entites were definitely gunning to bring the EUR down earlier today.
I try to make it safer by doing a bit of scalping while establishing the positions I'm hoping to keep. Also EUR/AUD short is looking good.

I heard the Yen crosses got pummeled due to the repatriation flow talk for Japanese March Fiscal Year end. I don't think we have suddenly become so risk averse again?

This is the 100 year flood. The repatriation trade has not been a good bet this year.

Originally Posted by melbgirl

BTW Rickos, here is the yen rally...LOL....just when we least expect it...I thought it wasn't a good idea to join in the rally today....

It's nice to wake up to profits once in a while.
But it's not only JPY.
BTW Commezbank just reported $68B in radioactive waste.

And as to our Czech friend, all I can say is, C'mon in, the water's great!!!

And, MelBgirl, right when I was about to expose all of you "shady" types, the forum went dead. But, you can't stop me. I've seen
The Invasion of the Body Snatchers!!!! I know what to do!

Originally Posted by cmellon

I heard the Yen crosses got pummeled due to the repatriation flow talk for Japanese March Fiscal Year end. I don't think we have suddenly become so risk averse again?

Oh yes, this is what Rickos was teasing me about because I kept referring to this risk all week LOL...so here it is Rickos....delivered as "promised" hahaha...

Originally Posted by rickos69

It's nice to wake up to profits once in a while.
But it's not only JPY.
BTW Commezbank just reported $68B in radioactive waste.

And as to our Czech friend, all I can say is, C'mon in, the water's great!!!

And, MelBgirl, right when I was about to expose all of you "shady" types, the forum went dead. But, you can't stop me. I've seen
The Invasion of the Body Snatchers!!!! I know what to do!

I know what you mean LOL...anyway, you guys can have all the fun, I'm going to call it a week...leaving in a bit of short EUR/AUD trades and two long GBP/JPY and a short EUR/JPY for the weekend...good luck all!

Originally Posted by melbgirl

Oh yes, this is what Rickos was teasing me about because I kept referring to this risk all week LOL...so here it is Rickos....delivered as "promised" hahaha...

You know what?
I'm not even sure it's repatriation flows yet. At least mostly.
Like I said above, Commerzbank, Germany's second largest just announced $68B in bad business debt. I think QE European style is imminent, and the word is spreading.

It looks like the USD is getting stronger across the board. If you look at yesterday's USD/JPY, we're at about the same rate.
Now if we really get repatriation, it's going to turn into a 3 ring circus.

Originally Posted by melbgirl

Oh yes, this is what Rickos was teasing me about because I kept referring to this risk all week LOL...so here it is Rickos....delivered as "promised" hahaha...

If I interpret this news below correctly, it seems that this Japanese repatriation flow is a rumor which drives speculators to buy Yen. And since it's already over, could we see Yen being sold again sometimes today or next week?

13:02 USD/JPY: Please Point the Way New York, March 27. USD/JPY is holding steady after the US PCE numbers. People are noting that the Japanese fiscal year is ending rather quietly. The overnight session saw a Japanese Ag bank selling USD/JPY but Trust and Importers were buyers at 97.30. There was, also, some chatter about $2bln to be sold at a fix but the Tokyo fix saw net sellers of JPY.

Some interesting numbers I thought I'd pass along.
I didn't know the US is the biggest holder of its own debt.
I'd like to know how this works!!!!!

Current Largest Holders of US Debt in Billions

15. Luxembourg - $104.7
14. Depository Institutions - $107.3
13. Russia - $119.6
12. United Kingdom - $124.2 (Not steady. Range $55-$279)
11. Insurance Companies - $126.4
10. Brazil - $133.5
9. Carribean Banks - $176.6
8. Oil Exporters (All Countries) - $186.3
7. Other Investors (Private-Govt. Inv. Companies) - $413.2
6. Pension Funds - $456.4
5. US State & Local Govts. - $506 to $550.3
4. Japan - $634.8
3. China - $739.6 + Hong Kong - $71.7
2. Mutual Funds - $769.1
1. Federal Reserve & US Govt. Agencies - $4,806 (plus $1,000 imminent)

Originally Posted by cmellon

If I interpret this news below correctly, it seems that this Japanese repatriation flow is a rumor which drives speculators to buy Yen. And since it's already over, could we see Yen being sold again sometimes today or next week?

13:02 USD/JPY: Please Point the Way New York, March 27. USD/JPY is holding steady after the US PCE numbers. People are noting that the Japanese fiscal year is ending rather quietly. The overnight session saw a Japanese Ag bank selling USD/JPY but Trust and Importers were buyers at 97.30. There was, also, some chatter about $2bln to be sold at a fix but the Tokyo fix saw net sellers of JPY.

Looking ahead, the details of the 2009 budget just passed will analyzed to see who the winners and losers are. Two tax proposals were approved along with the budget. The first is hike in the consumption tax. The second the tax holiday for repatriated Japanese corporate earnings overseas. The METI estimates retained earnings at JPY 17trln end of FY 07. However, it should be pointed out that 2008 was not a profitable year for Japanese corporates with many borrowing from parents. Moreover, some have suggested that the flow will likely be through emerging and Asian currencies. Though the holiday begins April 1, related non- spec flow may not come until late April/early May. As such, BRL/JPY should be watched.