Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

[QUOTE=rickos69;262271]Just to recap.
1. The Japanese govt. voted a tax holiday law for repatriated profits which goes into effect April 1.
2. The amount still outside Japan is estimated at 17 trillion JPY from 2007.
3. 2008 is probably an insignificant amount due to the situation.
4. Repatriation of these funds will probably be spread over the next month and a half. In any event, it's a pretty substantial amount.[/QUOTE
Would you elaborate ....does it mean the JPY will be in demand ....

[QUOTE=adam6655nyc;262330]

Originally Posted by rickos69

Just to recap.
1. The Japanese govt. voted a tax holiday law for repatriated profits which goes into effect April 1.
2. The amount still outside Japan is estimated at 17 trillion JPY from 2007.
3. 2008 is probably an insignificant amount due to the situation.
4. Repatriation of these funds will probably be spread over the next month and a half. In any event, it's a pretty substantial amount.[/QUOTE
Would you elaborate ....does it mean the JPY will be in demand ....

What I wrote I took from the articles referring to this issue. It is the opinion of the reporter that the repatriation will be spread over a month and a half starting April 1. Theoretically, yes, it means that JPY will be in demand. How much depends on how bluntly or politely they repatriate these funds.

Also, I don't know if this law will be permanent, or refers to a time window. If it is permanent, probably not more than 15% will be repatriated immediately. They will do it when they feel they can get more JPY for their foreign currency. If temporary, maybe upwards of 80%.

Originally Posted by melbgirl

Yes, that's true. The other important matter is whether or not the laws will be backdated.

Apparently the law is backdated or they wouldn't have a reason to bring up how much money is out there. Especially 2007.

[QUOTE=rickos69;262339]

Originally Posted by adam6655nyc

What I wrote I took from the articles referring to this issue. It is the opinion of the reporter that the repatriation will be spread over a month and a half starting April 1. Theoretically, yes, it means that JPY will be in demand. How much depends on how bluntly or politely they repatriate these funds.

Also, I don't know if this law will be permanent, or refers to a time window. If it is permanent, probably not more than 15% will be repatriated immediately. They will do it when they feel they can get more JPY for their foreign currency. If temporary, maybe upwards of 80%.

Could you please post a link to the article? Thank you.

if they want tax dollars, but GM CEO says he has no plan as of now. Who will get their way... I wonder....!

Hey, didn't somebody post here that all 2-letter and 1-letter companies will file for bankruptcy someday? Who is that smart guy... hmmm...

[QUOTE=qed;262347]

Originally Posted by rickos69

Could you please post a link to the article? Thank you.

Here is a copy paste from my earlier post as I copied it from thompsonreuters.

Looking ahead, the details of the 2009 budget just passed will analyzed to see who the winners and losers are. Two tax proposals were approved along with the budget. The first is hike in the consumption tax. The second the tax holiday for repatriated Japanese corporate earnings overseas. The METI estimates retained earnings at JPY 17trln end of FY 07. However, it should be pointed out that 2008 was not a profitable year for Japanese corporates with many borrowing from parents. Moreover, some have suggested that the flow will likely be through emerging and Asian currencies. Though the holiday begins April 1, related non- spec flow may not come until late April/early May. As such, BRL/JPY should be watched.

If you trade through fxcm, you have access to news from thompsonreuters. Some of their articles are pretty good, but, don't really follow their trade entry and exit points. Just take them into consideration.

I know that the common perception is that nothing will come out of the g20 meeting, however I wonder if anybody sees possible catalysts for currency moves ahead of the meeting?

There is talk about a large expansion of the IMF war chest which of course would be beneficial for bailing out Eastern Europe and thus Western European banks which would in turn be beneficial for the EURUSD. Does anyone else see this as a possible catalyst for a EURUSD rally ahead of G20 or am I alone in this view?

Does anybody else have any g20 ideas for trades? I am looking at increased risk taking in front of the possible relaxation of U.S. mark to market rules on Thursday. In my view this stock market rally was touched off by the first mark to market meeting. I want to be long risk here, and long financial stocks.

Originally Posted by qed

I know that the common perception is that nothing will come out of the g20 meeting, however I wonder if anybody sees possible catalysts for currency moves ahead of the meeting?

There is talk about a large expansion of the IMF war chest which of course would be beneficial for bailing out Eastern Europe and thus Western European banks which would in turn be beneficial for the EURUSD. Does anyone else see this as a possible catalyst for a EURUSD rally ahead of G20 or am I alone in this view?

Does anybody else have any g20 ideas for trades? I am looking at increased risk taking in front of the possible relaxation of U.S. mark to market rules on Thursday. In my view this stock market rally was touched off by the first mark to market meeting. I want to be long risk here, and long financial stocks.

You can't just trade G20, because on Thursday there is also ECB.

Which way is this going to break?

Originally Posted by qed

I know that the common perception is that nothing will come out of the g20 meeting, however I wonder if anybody sees possible catalysts for currency moves ahead of the meeting?

There is talk about a large expansion of the IMF war chest which of course would be beneficial for bailing out Eastern Europe and thus Western European banks which would in turn be beneficial for the EURUSD. Does anyone else see this as a possible catalyst for a EURUSD rally ahead of G20 or am I alone in this view?

Does anybody else have any g20 ideas for trades? I am looking at increased risk taking in front of the possible relaxation of U.S. mark to market rules on Thursday. In my view this stock market rally was touched off by the first mark to market meeting. I want to be long risk here, and long financial stocks.

They just confirmed that the FX will not be discussed or covered ...so I think the FX market will continue its quiet predictable sessions everyday lol

You usually come up with these things, but someone beat you to it.
General Motors will be renamed

Government Motors.

Originally Posted by qed

I know that the common perception is that nothing will come out of the g20 meeting, however I wonder if anybody sees possible catalysts for currency moves ahead of the meeting?

There is talk about a large expansion of the IMF war chest which of course would be beneficial for bailing out Eastern Europe and thus Western European banks which would in turn be beneficial for the EURUSD. Does anyone else see this as a possible catalyst for a EURUSD rally ahead of G20 or am I alone in this view?

Does anybody else have any g20 ideas for trades? I am looking at increased risk taking in front of the possible relaxation of U.S. mark to market rules on Thursday. In my view this stock market rally was touched off by the first mark to market meeting. I want to be long risk here, and long financial stocks.

22:39 Success Of G20 Threatened By French Threat To Walk Out - Times Sydney, March 31: A UK Times article today states that a threat by French President Sarkozy to walk out of the G20 Summit would wreck the meeting of leaders that was designed to show unity in the fight the global economic crisis. France wants global regulations of the financial markets, an idea fiercely opposed by the US and IUK and not supported by Germany. The article states that the French PM blames the "Anglo-Saxons" for causing the economic crisis and told his ministers last week that he would leave Mr Brown"s summit "if it does not work out". According to the article British officials said it looked as if Sarkozy was picking a fight he could present as a victory back home. -- John.Noonan@thomsonreuters.com

Originally Posted by qed

I know that the common perception is that nothing will come out of the g20 meeting, however I wonder if anybody sees possible catalysts for currency moves ahead of the meeting?

There is talk about a large expansion of the IMF war chest which of course would be beneficial for bailing out Eastern Europe and thus Western European banks which would in turn be beneficial for the EURUSD. Does anyone else see this as a possible catalyst for a EURUSD rally ahead of G20 or am I alone in this view?


Does anybody else have any g20 ideas for trades? I am looking at increased risk taking in front of the possible relaxation of U.S. mark to market rules on Thursday. In my view this stock market rally was touched off by the first mark to market meeting. I want to be long risk here, and long financial stocks.

I think the EUR faces considerable headwind amid the GE saga and ahead of the ECB meeting so I just stick to the short EUR/AUD (sigh) for now, also went short as a hedge to my long GBP/JPY trade as the rebound is fading. By the way, what's all this volatility in EUR/AUD at the moment?

I did see a currency analyst on CNBC comment that there was nothing in the G20 communique to suggest any news on the funding of the IMF. I recall reading that the major countries were trying to get the other G20 countries to pony up for the IMF, however that seems laughable when countries like Argentina are already trying to default on current obligations.

I know Sarkozy thinks he's all that because France has not been hurt as badly as some countries in this recession, but I am rest assued he'll get his come upins.

Originally Posted by rickos69

22:39 Success Of G20 Threatened By French Threat To Walk Out - Times Sydney, March 31: A UK Times article today states that a threat by French President Sarkozy to walk out of the G20 Summit would wreck the meeting of leaders that was designed to show unity in the fight the global economic crisis. France wants global regulations of the financial markets, an idea fiercely opposed by the US and IUK and not supported by Germany. The article states that the French PM blames the "Anglo-Saxons" for causing the economic crisis and told his ministers last week that he would leave Mr Brown"s summit "if it does not work out". According to the article British officials said it looked as if Sarkozy was picking a fight he could present as a victory back home. -- John.Noonan@thomsonreuters.com

Why Germany, UK and US don't like this idea? global regulations of the financial markets? It sounds good. don't you think?