Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by USAF4ER

Why Germany, UK and US don't like this idea? global regulations of the financial markets? It sounds good. don't you think?

The best regulation would be let business owners take responsibility for their actions, don't you think? If they do well, they get rich if they do shonky deals they'll go to jail. Unless you live (lived) in a communist country, you have no idea how dangerous is to let the government regulate business, let alone on a global scale.

Originally Posted by melbgirl

I think the EUR faces considerable headwind amid the GE saga and ahead of the ECB meeting so I just stick to the short EUR/AUD (sigh) for now, also went short as a hedge to my long GBP/JPY trade as the rebound is fading. By the way, what's all this volatility in EUR/AUD at the moment?

Yes, you are probably right about the EURUSD. I waited for the opening gap to fill last night and put aon a small short and covered it today. I still would like to see it rise to 1.34 before trying another short. I have been so wrong about the EUR that it is hard for me to put on a very large position without fear of having my head chopped off.

The AUDUSD fell hard and the EURUSD did not. Maybe the commodity rally went a little further then the fundies and the AUD corrected, I just don't know. THe EURAUD is maddening though. It is very volatile but I feel the need to keep coming back to it like a pig to the trough since I had a lucky short near 2.07.

Originally Posted by USAF4ER

Why Germany, UK and US don't like this idea? global regulations of the financial markets? It sounds good. don't you think?

Hey, maybe we should just have one President for the whole world also, and he could just madate all policy for every citizen.

Hi Melbgirl, i thought u would be interested in what was written by Kruger on Eur/Aud. Good luck.

Bullish outside day: Eur/Aud

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As contrarians we are often looking for compelling opportunities to fade overextended moves in anticipation of a significant reversal. While overbought technical studies are helpful in determining that a trend might be poised for a reversal, added confirmation in the form of an outside day is always a welcome development which helps to confirm our counter-trend bias.

A bullish outside day occurs when the market consumes the previous daily range and closes above the previous daily close. This means that the current day’s lows are lower than the previous day’s low and the current day’s highs are higher than the previous day’s high, with the market also closing higher on the day. When a market is trending in a given direction and daily studies start to reach oversold levels, we will start to look for signs of a bullish outside day. We can see that Eur/Aud has been trending lower since March 20. Daily studies are indeed oversold and the bullish reversal on Monday has taken the form of a potential bullish outside day (need to see a positive close). These types of formations are not common and usually act as a warning sign for a significant reversal in the trend.

Originally Posted by fxmix

Hi Melbgirl, i thought u would be interested in what was written by Kruger on Eur/Aud. Good luck.

Bullish outside day: Eur/Aud

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As contrarians we are often looking for compelling opportunities to fade overextended moves in anticipation of a significant reversal. While overbought technical studies are helpful in determining that a trend might be poised for a reversal, added confirmation in the form of an outside day is always a welcome development which helps to confirm our counter-trend bias.

A bullish outside day occurs when the market consumes the previous daily range and closes above the previous daily close. This means that the current day’s lows are lower than the previous day’s low and the current day’s highs are higher than the previous day’s high, with the market also closing higher on the day. When a market is trending in a given direction and daily studies start to reach oversold levels, we will start to look for signs of a bullish outside day. We can see that Eur/Aud has been trending lower since March 20. Daily studies are indeed oversold and the bullish reversal on Monday has taken the form of a potential bullish outside day (need to see a positive close). These types of formations are not common and usually act as a warning sign for a significant reversal in the trend.

Thanks for that, yes, but this pair has recently broken through a lot of vital supports so for at least the next two days I will hang on in there, if nothing better than it should make another attempt at the sub 1.92 levels (should not be a problem with the event risk with the EUR) which would aready make me happy. Also, RBA rhetoric and private credit data today seems to be supporting the AUD. I want to be out of these trades by Wednesday evening and want to avoid trading leading up to Easter altogether.

Originally Posted by qed

Yes, you are probably right about the EURUSD. I waited for the opening gap to fill last night and put aon a small short and covered it today. I still would like to see it rise to 1.34 before trying another short. I have been so wrong about the EUR that it is hard for me to put on a very large position without fear of having my head chopped off.

The AUDUSD fell hard and the EURUSD did not. Maybe the commodity rally went a little further then the fundies and the AUD corrected, I just don't know. THe EURAUD is maddening though. It is very volatile but I feel the need to keep coming back to it like a pig to the trough since I had a lucky short near 2.07.

There was some interest yesterday to short it from the mid 1.3200s to 1.3050... I wonder if they raised the bar since then. I don't see that a very good risk/reward ratio, so I will sit on my hands and yes, there is a risk that 1.40 will be tested by the end of this week with the G20 and NFP. But probably premature to go long here.

As a fellow Oz trader (my first post too!)...can I raise a couple of issues re today's trading action.
1. It's last day of the month and end of year Japan
2. Equities are showing surprising strength after US poor show last night, possibly window dressing, end of month
3. IMF currency debate fuelling USD weakness along with carmaker debacle and possible further bank bailouts
The kind of day when you could lose your shirt.....or just play off certain levels.
But I would just point out, for EURAUD trade, a bullish Gartley pattern has formed on the weekly chart, confirmed by strength this week.....this has also occurred on GBPAUD and a large bearish gartley on AUDUSD....this can be a powerful pattern to trade, but unfortunately signals AUD losses against these 3 major pairs.

So what happened afternoon? I left at 4PM and every pair was down, Dollar was the king....I come back to check now and every pair is up, JPY got trashed again (but that was expected)....what happened.

I see the rumor mills started about the EURO and G20 selling bonds to china which will help the EURO ......yada yada yada....lol

The only day I left...everything moves....
So we are back to buy everything but the dollar again? or by the end of the Asian session we will be back to where we were doing in the morning (US/EURO SESSION)?

Originally Posted by postaltraders

As a fellow Oz trader (my first post too!)...can I raise a couple of issues re today's trading action.
1. It's last day of the month and end of year Japan
2. Equities are showing surprising strength after US poor show last night, possibly window dressing, end of month
3. IMF currency debate fuelling USD weakness along with carmaker debacle and possible further bank bailouts
The kind of day when you could lose your shirt.....or just play off certain levels.
But I would just point out, for EURAUD trade, a bullish Gartley pattern has formed on the weekly chart, confirmed by strength this week.....this has also occurred on GBPAUD and a large bearish gartley on AUDUSD....this can be a powerful pattern to trade, but unfortunately signals AUD losses against these 3 major pairs.

That was my mistake, I should have bought all the losing pairs by the end of the american session....that was expected to reverse everything ...it is the end of the month/quarter.

Anti-China Tensions on the Rise in Australia - Australia and New Zealand * Asia * News * Story - CNBC.com

Is this widespread?

Good old CNBC! The tensions refer to political ones not societal. China is trying to buy a lot of our mining projects "on the cheap"....the Govt is either knocking back bids or putting restrictions which the Chinese are'nt happy about. Have youseen the Chinese approve any sale of their national assets?
What isn't reported is how much they are buying up in Africa and other undeveloped nations.

Originally Posted by postaltraders

As a fellow Oz trader (my first post too!)...can I raise a couple of issues re today's trading action.
1. It's last day of the month and end of year Japan
2. Equities are showing surprising strength after US poor show last night, possibly window dressing, end of month
3. IMF currency debate fuelling USD weakness along with carmaker debacle and possible further bank bailouts
The kind of day when you could lose your shirt.....or just play off certain levels.
But I would just point out, for EURAUD trade, a bullish Gartley pattern has formed on the weekly chart, confirmed by strength this week.....this has also occurred on GBPAUD and a large bearish gartley on AUDUSD....this can be a powerful pattern to trade, but unfortunately signals AUD losses against these 3 major pairs.

Welcome to the club and a great first post!

Well, we've got quite an explosive mix with the ECB rate decision, the G20 and US NFP in the next few days (oh I forgot the Japanese end of financial year LOL), so the only thing that looks certain is volatility.

You could be right with the EUR/AUD and I agree that we are probably going to see the AUD closer to 50c than 80c for most of the coming year, but we cannot quite bury the "Obama rally" yet. I have closed most of the EUR/AUD trades in the low 1.92s and will now wait and see, but with the ECB meeting I think 1.90 is a given. after that, I have no idea, so I will just look at the technicals and will be scalping mostly.
I also think that a period of range trading is approaching with the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Originally Posted by rickos69

Anti-China Tensions on the Rise in Australia - Australia and New Zealand * Asia * News * Story - CNBC.com

Is this widespread?

Depends on your definition for nationalism. I think every people have the right to do in their country what suits them most, and if they want to keep control of their assets I think they should. What's the point in selling out the country if we can keep financing it?

We can all take our pick, hahahaha.....

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The euro is shaping up to be the big loser from the G20 summit.

02:38 EUR/USD: Trading With Bid Tone As Bullish Case Emerges Sydney, March 31: Analysts are starting to make a potentially bullish case for the EUR/USD after the pairing fell to a two-week low of 1.3113 yesterday.

I know, what about going short and long at the same time?

Originally Posted by melbgirl

Depends on your definition for nationalism. I think every people have the right to do in their contry what suits them most, and if they want to keep control of their assets I think they should. What's the point in selling out the country if we can keep financing it?

Whilst I am against protectionism per se (I can't actually stand it and much prefer open economies across the world), I won't be too unhappy if Chinalco were blocked in their attempted tie-up attempt with Rio Tinto, given only last week they blocked Coca-Cola's bid for Huiyuan Juice, dubiously citing "competition concerns". In other words, they caved in to public objection about one of their brands being foreign owned.