Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by rickos69

The only reason I see is RISK AVERSION!

AUD/USD last trades at 0.6870.

Ah yes. Shreeeeek!

I have been taking my dog to rattlesnake aversion classes recently so I can take him for walks in the desert. It is amazing how well conditioning can work.

Are we merely dogs in this snakepit with our pavlovion responses? Nice recoil on the USDJPY!

I still feel like the best measure of a trade is how it responds to news.

Originally Posted by qed

Ah yes. Shreeeeek!

I have been taking my dog to rattlesnake aversion classes recently so I can take him for walks in the desert. It is amazing how well conditioning can work.

Are we merely dogs in this snakepit with our pavlovion responses? Nice recoil on the USDJPY!

I still feel like the best measure of a trade is how it responds to news.

AUD/USD: Bounces After White House Says GM Report Not Accurate Sydney, April 01: Equity markets have bounced back after the White House came out and said that the report that Obama has determined that a pre-packaged GM bankruptcy is best was not accurate. The bounce back in Asian equities has resulted in the JPY weakening again on the crosses and the USD has given back a lot of its gains against the EUR and AUD. The AUD/USD bounced from 0.6855 to 0.6910 on the back of the rise in Asian equities, but is edging back below 0.6900 again, as the weak Aus Retail Sales data is weighing on sentiment.
The market bought the AUD late yesterday and earlier this morning due to a hawkish turn in RBA expectations following articles in the local press suggesting that the RBA will stay on hold next week. The weak Retail Sales data has thrown some uncertainty on that view.
The rising tankan line at 0.6935 is now decent resistance on the day and a break back above that level would return the pressure to the topside. The AUD/USD trades 0.6896/0.6901.

Another source tips a 50 bps cut next week...I think I'll wait until the dust settles in a few hours. There is just too much confusion in the market. I got out of short EUR/AUD as well and only have the short EUR/JPY which I am only leaving there because we are a day before the ECB meeting.

Originally Posted by rickos69

AUD/USD: Bounces After White House Says GM Report Not Accurate Sydney, April 01: Equity markets have bounced back after the White House came out and said that the report that Obama has determined that a pre-packaged GM bankruptcy is best was not accurate. The bounce back in Asian equities has resulted in the JPY weakening again on the crosses and the USD has given back a lot of its gains against the EUR and AUD. The AUD/USD bounced from 0.6855 to 0.6910 on the back of the rise in Asian equities, but is edging back below 0.6900 again, as the weak Aus Retail Sales data is weighing on sentiment.
The market bought the AUD late yesterday and earlier this morning due to a hawkish turn in RBA expectations following articles in the local press suggesting that the RBA will stay on hold next week. The weak Retail Sales data has thrown some uncertainty on that view.
The rising tankan line at 0.6935 is now decent resistance on the day and a break back above that level would return the pressure to the topside. The AUD/USD trades 0.6896/0.6901.

The funny thing is that I watched NBC nightly news in the U.S. and the new stand in CEO for GM acknowledged that bankruptcy was a forgone conclusion.

Originally Posted by qed

The funny thing is that I watched NBC nightly news in the U.S. and the new stand in CEO for GM acknowledged that bankruptcy was a forgone conclusion.

Of course it is...as they say, where there is smoke, there is a fire and of course they come out and deny it straight away but the damage is done already.

Originally Posted by qed

The funny thing is that I watched NBC nightly news in the U.S. and the new stand in CEO for GM acknowledged that bankruptcy was a forgone conclusion.

I saw hiim too. He's got problems expressing himself. It took him 10 hours to say I simple thing.

I know it's mostly wishful thinking, but I can't see how EUR/JPY could break out to the topside from here. I think 129.30 or 128 is on the cards in the next couple of days to maybe form some sort of a base. With that logic, we should see EUR/USD losing ground as well.

Originally Posted by rickos69

The only reason I see is RISK AVERSION!

April 01. The
AUD/USD is now down over a big figure from the NY high witnessed late in the
overnight session. The AUD has been battered by a number of factors today
including Kiwi weakness after the RBNZ comments whilst the Obama comment
"bankruptcy best for Chrysler and GM" has been the latest nail in the AUD"s
coffin. Traders take a "shoot first, ask questions later" approach to bad news
and a thin AUD/USD market has been caught on the back foot this morning. US
equity futures are down nearly 1.5% and whilst regional bourses have barely
reacted suggesting positioning/hedging has been taken by selling straight AUD.
AUD/USD last trades at 0.6870.

It seems rather silly to attribute all of these reasons for a fall in the AUDUSD. It was up 4% in the U.S. session. I call the reason profit AKA a natural correction.

Originally Posted by qed

It seems rather silly to attribute all of these reasons for a fall in the AUDUSD. It was up 4% in the U.S. session. I call the reason profit AKA a natural correction.

These Thomson Reuters or Dow Jones or whoever analysts are just doing their job to earn paycheck by trying their best to find explanation for every 10 pip price movement. Can't blame them for that. So yes, sometimes it looks quite silly.

We have been having two weeks of nonstop blathering by "high official" maroons each saying something in the am and the opposite in the pm. Helicopter Ben, Tim Geithner, Obama, WH officials, Trichet, Dale, Lesser mortals from Fed, G20 gangsta... and creating waves and waves of whipsaws in the markets. Why don't they all shut up and go away somewhere and let the free market handle things in its own way?

I agree with you, BUT all the politicians fear that they will not be voted back into office IF they let the free market correct itself. So many people in the USA alone would lose their residences the numbers would be now and in the future-STAGGERING. I believe the economic situation will get much worse; we are just in the beginning phases of a downturn that will bring the world into a Great Depression. As bad as the 1930's?? Who can tell.

Originally Posted by DollarBull

We have been having two weeks of nonstop blathering by "high official" maroons each saying something in the am and the opposite in the pm. Helicopter Ben, Tim Geithner, Obama, WH officials, Trichet, Dale, Lesser mortals from Fed, G20 gangsta... and creating waves and waves of whipsaws in the markets. Why don't they all shut up and go away somewhere and let the free market handle things in its own way?

Indeed. I was torpedoed by the Bernanke bait and switch. Days before announcing the QE he said he wasn't concerned about deflation. I thought that meant that the underlying economy might be stronger than expected, however I guess he must have made that comment because he knew he was going run the presses.

Trichet has been loath to QE. I expect QE and possible Euro shock. I will ease into a EURUSD short between now and tomorrow.

Are you dizzy yet? I'm utterly exhausted. There is a 130.00 expiry in EUR/JPY where I intend to get out of my shorts and hopefully EUR/AUD is going to hit 1.9000 but anywhere between here and there will be fine, I just want out of this circus. I really worked hard for my holidays.

Don't leave the circus, the real fun is about to come. Don't you want to see the EURUSD fall off the wire?

It looks to me as if the EURUSD may have hit stall speed as it is not rising much with the AUD after the ISM. I shorted here out of fear that I may not get a higher price.

MILAN (Dow Jones)--Joblessness in the euro zone is growing at an accelerating pace, and a survey of businesses indicate more layoffs to come as companies adjust to slumping demand.

The jobless rate in the euro area rose to 8.5% in February from 8.3% the month before, the European statistics office, Eurostat, reported Wednesday.

February saw 319,000 new jobless in the euro area, up from 256,000 the month before.

Some 13.5 million jobless workers were counted in the 16-member currency union during the month, up more than 2.1 million from February 2008, Eurostat said.

Analysts expect the ranks of the jobless to more than double, pushing unemployment as high as 11% and leaving labor markets in trouble even after economic growth returns to the region.

March labor-market reports from Germany and Ireland, as well as this week's slew of business sentiment and purchasing-manager surveys, already indicate the next euro-zone report will be sharply worse.

"The increase already seen in euro-area unemployment levels marks merely the tip of the iceberg," said James Ashley, European economist for Barclays Capital.

He expects euro-zone unemployment to rise to 11% by the end of 2010, tantamount to a 5.7 million increase in the number of people without jobs.

The spike is likely to be coming soon. The Eurostat figures are overwhelmingly dominated by job losses in Spain, where the imploding housing market has gutted a bloated labor-intensive construction sector.

But the global slowdown is now gnawing away at industrial production and trade, indicating that core job losses are inevitable.

The VDMA, Germany's export-dependent plant and machinery industry lobby, reported Wednesday new orders had plunged 49% on the year in February. The group now expects a 10% contraction in output this year, almost twice the increase reported in 2008.

"The unemployment rate will accelerate in coming months as employers in Germany, France and Italy give up and adjust their payrolls to cope with the downturn," said Javier Perez de Azpillaga, European economist for Goldman Sachs.

According to final data from March purchasing-manager surveys released Wednesday, Germany now has the weakest industrial sector in Europe.

Germany's heavy reliance on exports for growth has left it deeply exposed to the downturn. Another round of corporate cost-cutting is inevitable.

Households know it and have raised their savings ratios. Data released Wednesday showed that German retail sales showed a surprise fall in February, dropping 0.2% on the month and an unadjusted 5.3% on the year.

Further German austerity will make economic growth even harder to accomplish for highly-indebted countries elsewhere in the euro zone, including Spain and Italy, said BNP Paribas economist Dominic Bryant.

The nature of job losses will also weaken household income trends, given that men, who are typically paid 10% to 25% more than women according to Eurostat, are losing their jobs at a faster pace.

Male unemployment in February rose to 8.1%, compared to 8.9% for women. The gap was twice as large a year ago.