Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Still holding a buy from 1.2985 and VERY curious about the FOMC.

Originally Posted by jolopino

I am excepting choppy trading in a range. My intuition tells me for such market it is very possible to make fake down movement towards 1.2960 level. More tradable scenario to make correction to 1.3080 and then take out 1.34 level.

So as you see my intuition was quite right, but I did not implement it in my trading. Long from.13310 in play. I will take profit near 1.37. Then probably correction, maybe not deep.

Originally Posted by jolopino

So as you see my intuition was quite right, but I did not implement it in my trading. Long from.13310 in play. I will take profit near 1.37. Then probably correction, maybe not deep.

Yeah, Yearly Resistance is right 1.37 Even

Originally Posted by rickos69

Ready to hit the hedge button... Most of my GBP/JPY gains returned to sender via EUR/USD.

I'm afraid I have started a confessional.

Originally Posted by qed

I'm afraid I have started a confessional.

If the 1.3325-1.3350 area holds, I will be issuing a retraction. But, I doubt it.

I have a feeling I will feel very sick in about 12 minutes. The AUDJPY is up 3.78%. Can it go up 5% today, 10%?

I would think that since the reaction was so large to QE in the last Fed meeting that maybe today's QE if it materializes could be priced in or the reaction could be more muted than last time.

GOLD DLY Chart: Double Low [Bottom] in an Uptrend [Channel] with Higher Low?
[Long @$893]

$917.55 = April Open

Cheers, Uturn

"The market is always turning.
Let it turn, let it turn, let it turn."

Originally Posted by qed

I'm afraid I have started a confessional.

LOL yes but

at least I am now out of my shorts after adding to them at 3325 and looking at even more pain on the small pop. FOMC drop gave me a small loss but a chance to get out

now I stick to what works

I gone short at 1.3260.
Daily candlestick formation is bearish dark cloud cover and both 4 hour RSI and stochs are overbought.
P.S: Candlestick is not complete yet, I might be too aggressive.

Well, that was a rather unpleasant experience, but not a total disaster. I managed to unload some USDJPY and AUDJPY for a profit. I was punished for holding 10 YR US Treasury futures. I am still holding my EURUSD short. The trendline from the 1.47 high has held so far.

The S&P500 did not close above the break out point. U.S. Treasury bonds did break out. The USD index is still holding in for now. Yields on the U.S. 10 year Treasury are now roughly the same as yields in Germany, and we have an ECB cut to look forward to. The swine flu has been taken up another notch almost to pandemic. Could these factors be enough to support the USD?

I was looking at the yield curves for various countries and I noticed that the yeild curve for Germany and the U.K. flatten out on longer maturities compared to the U.S. Does anyone know why this is?

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/germany.html

Originally Posted by qed

Well, that was a rather unpleasant experience, but not a total disaster. I managed to unload some USDJPY and AUDJPY for a profit. I was punished for holding 10 YR US Treasury futures. I am still holding my EURUSD short. The trendline from the 1.47 high has held so far.

The S&P500 did not close above the break out point. U.S. Treasury bonds did break out. The USD index is still holding in for now. Yields on the U.S. 10 year Treasury are now roughly the same as yields in Germany, and we have an ECB cut to look forward to. The swine flu has been taken up another notch almost to pandemic. Could these factors be enough to support the USD?

I was looking at the yield curves for various countries and I noticed that the yeild curve for Germany and the U.K. flatten out on longer maturities compared to the U.S. Does anyone know why this is?

Bloomberg.com: Government Bonds

20:03 GMT April 29th EUR/USD opened New York around 1.3245 was bid all day,
soared to 1.3338 around midday but stalled amidst talk of a 1.3350 barrier
defence after a short squeeze following the 11.00AM fix, US equities enthused
spec buyers and IMM players to jump on board. The pair receded to 1.3305, held,
and entered the FOMC announcement around 1.3330. After spot kissed 1.3340
initially it plunged to 1.3265, rebounded ran into fresh 1.3300 offers from
leveraged accounts; chopped 1.3250/00, then sold off again to 1.3232 session
lows. Stocks which had shrugged off Q1 US GDP at -6.1%, finding comfort in the
sharp reduction in inventories implying future build; and later news the WHO
plan to raise the alert level to "5", a pandemic. Fed comments "Weak sales
prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back
on inventories" forced stocks 1.2% off their highs, EUR/USD closed 1.3250.

Somebody, Anybody...Is Tokyo open today(Tonight) whatever?

Originally Posted by rickos69

20:03 GMT April 29th EUR/USD opened New York around 1.3245 was bid all day,
soared to 1.3338 around midday but stalled amidst talk of a 1.3350 barrier
defence after a short squeeze following the 11.00AM fix, US equities enthused
spec buyers and IMM players to jump on board. The pair receded to 1.3305, held,
and entered the FOMC announcement around 1.3330. After spot kissed 1.3340
initially it plunged to 1.3265, rebounded ran into fresh 1.3300 offers from
leveraged accounts; chopped 1.3250/00, then sold off again to 1.3232 session
lows. Stocks which had shrugged off Q1 US GDP at -6.1%, finding comfort in the
sharp reduction in inventories implying future build; and later news the WHO
plan to raise the alert level to "5", a pandemic. Fed comments "Weak sales
prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back
on inventories" forced stocks 1.2% off their highs, EUR/USD closed 1.3250.

Somebody, Anybody...Is Tokyo open today(Tonight) whatever?

Tokyo is definitely open tonight as they will be releasing econ data today before the market opens:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

my initial reply got snuffed. yes, Tokyo markets are open today

Originally Posted by JustScalpin

my initial reply got snuffed. yes, Tokyo markets are open today

Thnx Scalp!

Profits booked on EUR/NZD and other short NZD trades are squared. I'm quite happy with the result. I actually didn't see the Elliot wave posts I just got the idea that at a time when EUR is rallying and the NZD has event risk this might work. Now I have absolutely no idea what I should trade next so might take the rest of the week off. (but I'll have a peek later today hehe)

Don't stress with EUR shorts. It's still in a downtrend. I missed the chance to sell it above 1.33 although we might get another chance despite the fact that the USD doesn't look to be dented by FOMC.