Looking at the price action alone, Swisse has not been able to muster much of move despite all the dollar doomsday talk. That leads me t believe that if the Fed only does 25bp the relief rally might best be done through long USDCHF.

Bloomberg ran an interest article about the heavy influence that Mishkin may have within the Board of Governors. The authors suggest he is an intellectual 'powerhouse' and that he has developed a strong relationship to Bernanke which helped to push forward the preemptive 50bp cut in September (he had suggested it as a possibility in a speech leading up to the cut). Interesting read.

Is Mishkin a dove or hawk? In general.

The consensus through his voting policy is that he is a dove. I just did a quick run of third party opinions through google and at least six other respectable research sites and investment banks agree. I didn't see any arguments for him being considered a hawk.

So this aggressive cutting regime isn't outside of his habits, but it is still interesting to think he has this much clout among more experienced board members.

10/30/2007
Good morning traders, this is my analysis and entry points on USA session.
09:00 NY Time USD National Home Index -4.4 vs -3.9 (negative)
09>00 FED Meeting day 1.
10:00 NY Time USD Consumer Index 95.60 vs. 99.80


EUR Oscillators intra day Levels: MACD +0.77, RSI +68.67, Fast S +89.54 (overbought), AweS +0.166.
EUR Levels: RESISTANCE 1.4440 (history highest), 1.4480 (new high forecast)
SUPPORTS 1.4350, 1.4330 and 1.4280
EUR Entry Points SHORT at 1.4450, Rollover at 1.4480 Intraday Target 1.4410

Please, check those levels with your own charts.

whats the latest odds with futures on potential rate cuts?

For the first time in four years, deposits in the euro area maturing in two years offer an higher interest rate than those with the same maturity in the U.S.

In 2003, the last time something similar happened, the EUR/USD jumped from 1.0000 to 1.10 in less than 12 months and then to 1.30 in the following month.

This could well mean EUR/USD at 1.50 sooner than most traders expect.

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Basically unchanged from yesterday. Implied rates for the November contract had initially risen 2.5bp through early morning trade (I had been watching them rather closely), but subsequently moved back sharply following the dismal Consumer Confidence numbers.

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Expectations for EZ rates will likely remain relatively stable through some time to come--especially as hawks like the ECB's Weber continue claiming that inflationary risks remain to the topside through the medium term. Check out the screen cap for things we have rolling down the Bloomberg FX news feed.

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UBS released their forecast today for EUR/USD at 1.35 within three months.

Oh, they've been calling for 1.35 within three months for a couple weeks now. (Read: 400 points ago) These are the same guys that called for USDJPY at 97.00 for the end of 2006, so I tend to take their forecasts with a fat grain of salt.

" Many US Dollar pairs, including EUR/USD, are trading at extreme levels and a major event risk could trigger a sharp and sudden turn. Will this week’s FOMC rate decision do the trick?"

if you read this forum, first Kathy hints at a rebound, then another fellow quote a UBS article on Euro at 1.35 in 3 months.

Well,rebound here, rebound there. Rebound my ass.

Brokers dun make monies if everybody is positioned for the winning trade.
B'cos the brokers cannot take their stops. How can brokers make monies with 1 pips spread ?

Essentially it is a US story not ECB storey. whatever Sakorzy says or Weber says, Euro is going up. FED is cutting, and bent on cutting.

if they cut 50bp tomorrow, then the trend is established.
if they cut 25bp, then market would jostle for a 50bp cut next when market condition worsens.

US is indeed heading into recession. But liquidity and market intervention by the FED is keeping the market from collapsing. Reason: to keep the Repubicans for the next Presidency.

Bush is so hopeless that he has to come out and scold Congress today, another election ploy.

The Big Fish is using US SPX, INDU, NDX to lead on the world markets. By keeping US market seemingly alive, it draws further monies.

of course the offsetting entry is the USD. USD can be sacrificed afterall, b'cos the Big fish are hedged against the falling dollar. But the public are not.
Inflation rises, spending power overseas drops.

History would look back on the FED and FED would be irrelevant in the next decade. As it is a market follower not setter.

The decline of USD is inevitable. When the market is seemingly bouyant, and USD is at precarious at 1.4430, one wonders where USD would be, when recession comes. 1.5000 would be reached eventually.

However as saying goes, things do not happen in straight line. Expect some violent whipsawing at FOMC decision, by the banks to wipe out the stops.

The bias is up for Euro, Gold, Commodities (now media is hyping Ethanol).

As for SPX, NDX, INDU expect the final push up recent high to rekindle the rally into Jan/Feb next yr before any pull back happens.

The rise of Euro wold be slower though. inching.

The media is gettnig boring, toking about ONeil severance package at Merill Lynch, where got his package got to do with the stock markets at large.

Sometimes when the market is bias towards a specific direction, life become boring.

For my readers, stay out the whipsaw, and buy Euro at support, the lower support not the immediate.

Same applies for SPX, load up at 15520-1530, aiming for 1600 by Dec.

Good luck....

Nostradamus has struck again

Fortunately, I have him on ignore.

This man is probably the smartest on this website.

Make the sinners repent!!!!

1.65 by next xmas.