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05-18-2009, 06:53 PM
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Posts: 506
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Quote:
Originally Posted by qed
So it sounds like you are bearish EURJPY do to your view that the stock market will go down. I stil think there is more room to the upside for stocks with all of the cash on the sidelines.
I am with you on AUDJPY and AUDUSD. I added to my long positions in those yesterday and today. I am kicking myself for not buying more. I have AUDNZD as well.
I subscribe to Don Hays newsletter and he shows a chart of the "Gambill Oscillator" which is showing inseder buying.
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May be it is old data, but insiders are selling, even newspapers reported it, the board of GM, sold as soon as they left, GE, AIG...ETC
all the losers out there who brought those great companies down, sold their shares as soon as they were told to leave.
on the other hand, insider from tech companies are buying (goog, msft, orcl...etc)
Tonight is very important for all of them, gbp, euro and JPY....one of them will shift away, and the other two should show their true face....we will soon find out, the asian session is about to start in 5m
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05-18-2009, 08:01 PM
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Posts: 1,492
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guilder
Ignore YuanPro at will.
And the same goes for me ofcourse.
Wonder why someone has to SCREAM LIKE THAT all the time!! Or Using Capitals For Every Single Word...
Where have to decent folks gone...
Have to dash again. One of my 274,3 contracts wants to be covered.
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Maybe it's time for us, quieter folk to move onto a private forum.
I think the yen crossses could have a bit more upside although overbought levels are close, but tomorrow is the 20th when there is usually demand for foreign currencies in Japan. I missed the EUR/JPY because I had to go out for the day, I was looking at it in the morning but then I'm not comfortable with open trades when I'm away. I agree with Qed and think the EUR might turn south for a while probably this time it will be the pound that will pull it down.
I closed my USD/JPY for a mere 11 pips gain when it started to defy gravity, went with the pound rally for 90 pips but now I'm holding cable shorts for a retrace back into the 1.51s.
__________________
Trade your own ideas. When you haven't got any, it's a sure sign you should not trade.
Melbgirl
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05-18-2009, 08:17 PM
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Join Date: Mar 2008
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Quote:
Originally Posted by qed
So it sounds like you are bearish EURJPY do to your view that the stock market will go down. I stil think there is more room to the upside for stocks with all of the cash on the sidelines.
I am with you on AUDJPY and AUDUSD. I added to my long positions in those yesterday and today. I am kicking myself for not buying more. I have AUDNZD as well.
I subscribe to Don Hays newsletter and he shows a chart of the "Gambill Oscillator" which is showing inseder buying.
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Unfortunately when the stock market has a slide the AUD gets punished severely. However, the outlook was upgraded from 55c to 67 c if that happens. Personally I agree with you on the fundamentals that support it, still it is what they call a "risk" currency and acts true to its reputation when the picture turns ugly for the global economy.
__________________
Trade your own ideas. When you haven't got any, it's a sure sign you should not trade.
Melbgirl
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05-18-2009, 08:27 PM
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 843
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adam6655nyc
May be it is old data, but insiders are selling, even newspapers reported it, the board of GM, sold as soon as they left, GE, AIG...ETC
all the losers out there who brought those great companies down, sold their shares as soon as they were told to leave.
on the other hand, insider from tech companies are buying (goog, msft, orcl...etc)
Tonight is very important for all of them, gbp, euro and JPY....one of them will shift away, and the other two should show their true face....we will soon find out, the asian session is about to start in 5m
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My ears always perk up when I hear the guy from Trim Tabs. Another measure shows insider buying. It is the Gambill oscillator, however I do not know much about it. I follow other sentiment indicators as well though and leading stocks to try to gauge the market. I am thinking 20% to 35% up then we break to below DJIA 6000 as all of the tax hikes are priced into the market. That is just my opinion though. I will be watching the market for clues.
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05-18-2009, 08:34 PM
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Join Date: Jun 2006
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EURUSD currently at 3540. Short should be the order of the day. There may be a nice long side recoil later in the session before the further short move for the week.
My opinions only, do not follow.
Brian
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05-18-2009, 08:41 PM
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Posts: 843
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Quote:
Originally Posted by melbgirl
Unfortunately when the stock market has a slide the AUD gets punished severely. However, the outlook was upgraded from 55c to 67 c if that happens. Personally I agree with you on the fundamentals that support it, still it is what they call a "risk" currency and acts true to its reputation when the picture turns ugly for the global economy.
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Right, I have a lot of tire tracks on my back for having a fundamental theme. I am still trying to exit my USDJPY position. Slowly working my way out.
I thought the stock market and commodities would correct more, however that Indian election through a wrench into the mix. Now I have to go back to the land of confusion. Who'da thunk that the fall of the communists in India would have lead to a 17% rip in Indian shares. Thank God I had bought TTM near $5. |
05-18-2009, 08:47 PM
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00:31 CNY News: Change of Policy on Investment Overseas May 19. The SCMP has
followed up on a Ministry of Commerce statement released yesterday urging
domestic companies to invest overseas. The State Administration of Foreign
Exchange (SAFE) also announced that it planned to encourage more investments
abroad by easing inspection procedures and expanding FX available for
investment. Added to this mix was an announcement by the National Social
Security Fund (NSSF) that it was seeking cabinet approval to invest billions of
dollars in private equity funds. The SCMP says this renewed interest in overseas
investment is in stark contrast to warnings earlier this year about the
political and cultural risks in foreign deals. If China is about to open the
"purse strings" then the big beneficiaries (if not already) would be Brazil,
Australia, Canada, South Africa etc. for obvious reasons.
__________________
Live Long And Prosper!
Rickos.
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05-18-2009, 08:50 PM
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,492
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Quote:
Originally Posted by qed
Right, I have a lot of tire tracks on my back for having a fundamental theme. I am still trying to exit my USDJPY position. Slowly working my way out.
I thought the stock market and commodities would correct more, however that Indian election through a wrench into the mix. Now I have to go back to the land of confusion. Who'da thunk that the fall of the communists in India would have lead to a 17% rip in Indian shares. Thank God I had bought TTM near $5.
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Well, let's look at history to see what we can expect. For the sharemarket to crash, most investors need to be convinced that it is going to rise.
__________________
Trade your own ideas. When you haven't got any, it's a sure sign you should not trade.
Melbgirl
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05-18-2009, 10:11 PM
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 506
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YuanPro
Now China dun have a good track record of overseas investment. The fact that China government is pushing for investment overseas is akin to China forex investment corp buying up BlackRock in 2007.
The trick is to deplete China, and other sovereign wealth funds of their reserves, then when the next crisis comes, there would be no more monies for stimulus plan. When the entire world is in debt, we would head for the abyss. This takes time to happen. Probably by 2012, it would be most obvious.
The world has gone on a bull run since 1929 till 2007, an almost 80 yrs of bull cycle. The next 30 yrs is a bear market, with occasional bull rallies, like the one we are having. Hence the strategy for the whales is to grab as much monies as possible from the dolphins.
Wealth preservation is till the mantra. You would still be wealthier if you stay out of the market.
May be you take the ride now, with destination unknown. You may be ride the bull to the peak and then down into the abyss, back to where you are. The only person who benefit is your broker.
Hence stay out, there is no easy monies in forex, or stock market.
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It seems like you lost a lot of money in the stock market? I see from your blog that you are studying....why do not you focus on that instead of writing for bunch of retail investors who love to do it themselves instead of giving it to someone like you to manage it for them?
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05-18-2009, 10:15 PM
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 506
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Quote:
Originally Posted by melbgirl
Well, let's look at history to see what we can expect. For the sharemarket to crash, most investors need to be convinced that it is going to rise.
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Melb,
Where have you been? I have not seen you since you shorted the EURO/JPY , did you exit yesterday ? I hope so, you have been trading for awhile, I bet youhad your trailing stops....
I hit a home run with CAD/JPY down from 85 and up from 81, more than 1000 pips in two days, first time since I started trading forex....always have like 200 pips, but a 1000 .....first time this monday.... |
05-18-2009, 10:34 PM
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,492
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adam6655nyc
Melb,
Where have you been? I have not seen you since you shorted the EURO/JPY , did you exit yesterday ? I hope so, you have been trading for awhile, I bet youhad your trailing stops....
I hit a home run with CAD/JPY down from 85 and up from 81, more than 1000 pips in two days, first time since I started trading forex....always have like 200 pips, but a 1000 .....first time this monday....
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That's excellent, Adam, I'm really happy for you. It's one of the hardest things for me to let my profits run like that.
And thanks for asking, yes, I made good money on the Euppy shorts and closed all trades on Friday so I didn't have to sleep through the weekend (and had time to shave hahaha). And yesterday I didn't get in until the EU session because I had to go out for the day and I really don't trust Monday Asian trading. Basically I'm starting to get my life back, having made enough money to pay my bills this month, I could even take the next two weeks off. But I'm looking for opportunities without chasing the market. Short cable on a few lots, hoping that 1.5370 won't be overcome today. But I'm still not using stops.
__________________
Trade your own ideas. When you haven't got any, it's a sure sign you should not trade.
Melbgirl
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05-18-2009, 10:47 PM
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Join Date: May 2009
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Very nice to see you, YuanPro, back in the thick of it. Your analysis is very helpful to this newbie. In fact, all the posts are very interesting to me. I am waiting to long at 134.90 ish for a ride up to 136.50 or more. I have a micro account and go very slow as i am learning.
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05-18-2009, 11:55 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 796
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Quote:
Originally Posted by panplayer78
Very nice to see you, YuanPro, back in the thick of it. Your analysis is very helpful to this newbie. In fact, all the posts are very interesting to me. I am waiting to long at 134.90 ish for a ride up to 136.50 or more. I have a micro account and go very slow as i am learning.
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yeah ryte . he only knows how to shout that sell the usd at will !
__________________
IGNORANCE, OVER CONFIDENCE, GREED AND FEAR ARE THE KEY FACTORS TO POOR TRADING !
Last edited by abro; 05-18-2009 at 11:57 PM..
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05-19-2009, 12:22 AM
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Good performance from EURUSD history support resistance level yesterday
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History Levels EURUSD
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05-19-2009, 02:13 AM
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 506
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Quote:
Originally Posted by melbgirl
That's excellent, Adam, I'm really happy for you. It's one of the hardest things for me to let my profits run like that.
And thanks for asking, yes, I made good money on the Euppy shorts and closed all trades on Friday so I didn't have to sleep through the weekend (and had time to shave hahaha). And yesterday I didn't get in until the EU session because I had to go out for the day and I really don't trust Monday Asian trading. Basically I'm starting to get my life back, having made enough money to pay my bills this month, I could even take the next two weeks off. But I'm looking for opportunities without chasing the market. Short cable on a few lots, hoping that 1.5370 won't be overcome today. But I'm still not using stops.
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Enjoy it, it is always a good thing to take time off and relax away from teh market, you come back in a better mental shape
I hope you have some AUD in your positions this week, we will break out ....
80 is within reach.....
Glad that we brought that to your attention (shaving lol)....your husband should send us thank you cards lol
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