sorry rickos but thats probably a bit overboard

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Don't Chase the market let the market come to you

When considering how Asia will be/has been impacted by the American Crisis, it is useful to begin by examining the role Asia played in sustaining the dollar standard and the global credit bubble it allowed to develop. Between 2001 and today, central banks outside the U.S. (and primarily in Asia) printed or, more accurately, created the equivalent of $6 trillion dollars worth of their own currencies. They used that money to buy most of the dollars entering their countries so that their currencies would not appreciate. They sought to avoid currency appreciation because it would have made their exports less competitive and slowed their economic growth. Those central banks then invested their dollars in U.S. dollar-denominated assets, such as Treasury bonds and debt issued by Fannie and Freddie. By so doing, they financed the excessive consumption in the U.S. that fuelled their own export-led economies.

In other words, Washington and its government-sponsored enterprises issued debt and the Asia central banks created paper money and financed much of it. Had the U.S. Federal Reserve created the paper money that financed the government debt, it would have been correctly described as the Fed monetizing the U.S. government's debt.


where are we now? scary times are ahead for the USA. I have said many times I see nothing to sustain any rally north in EU..... as long as the $ is in the crapper. I also do not think we have hit the bottom yet, to come out of a "recission/mini depression" whatever you want to call it this quickly? I live here and cannot see it in everyday people. When obamamania wears off and reality sets back in then it will be time to flush. Meanwhile we are all fed a line I hope most do not fall for.

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Don't Chase the market let the market come to you

So the Chinese are gonna get what Japan got and implode?
Let's see now, who don't we like that we could run up a nice trade deficit with?

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Live Long And Prosper!
Rickos.

(Japan's economy bubbled and popped; the economies of the 1997 Asian crisis countries bubbled and popped; and China's economy has bubbled, although it has not yet popped.)

China even if it did pop we may never know as they can say whatever it is they wish the rest of the world to believe

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Don't Chase the market let the market come to you

every time EU rally's the nuts come (eurolinux) out calling for 1.5 and 2.0 when the truth is we are going to see sub 1.2 before this is over.

unless the 'global' community invents a new reserve that is and I just do not see that happening anytime soon. as always I still short the rises but admit to a long here and there as this moved up.

trade smart, I cant be here early this week

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Don't Chase the market let the market come to you

Hello Every Body, Could You Tell me How To Reorganize the News into Currency Pairs, And I Can't Find when and where To See the News as Best can Currently Use in Pair Of Currency I am Talking about GBP-JPY,, And ,, EUR-JPY,, So Please Give Me a Favor.

nice to meet you all


thank YOU..

I cannot help you with the GJ and EJ specifically but here is a daily outlook for trading EU that you need to look for on a weekly and sometimes daily basis

it will also apply to any currency pair you trade I assume but I apply it mostly to the EU

it looks complicated but do it for a few weeks and it really does become simple and hardly any time involved, then you are ready to trade for the week




What reports are the banks watching? What reports could the banks potentially react to?

Key Reports Banks Watch:

Non-Farm Payrolls / Unemployment Rate
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Gross Domestic Products (GDP)
Retail Sales
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
Consumer Confidence
Current Account / Trade Balance / TIC
ISM Manufacturing / ISM Services
All Fed / ECB Data / Speeches (FOMC)

Cut Out Noise!

Focus time and energy on “flavor of the week” data / data directly tied to interest rate policy
Patterns with data – look for trend patterns
What’s on the horizon? What sector(s) will get weak?

What is the flavor of the week?

Interest Rates?
Growth?
Housing?
Employment?
Manufacturing / Production?
Inflation?
Geo-political events?


Data Trend Patterns

Inflation Data Trends:

What is prevailing central bank monetary policy?
Correlate central bank monetary policy to inflation data
To keep central banks “credible” inflation data will have to match monetary policy

Growth Data Trends:

Growth data trends found in GDP, Manufacturing, Industrial Production, Trade Balance, NFP, ISM, Regional Fed Reports.
Interest rate policy needs to be in-line with growth data
Interest rate policy must correlate with the state of the consumer

Employment / Consumer Trends:

NFP, Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Employment Component in Manufacturing Data, Beige Book
Jobs situation and consumer activity go hand-in-hand
Housing situation and consumer activity go hand-in-hand (how much am I worth?)

What’s on the Horizon?

Look for pattern formations within key fundamental data releases
Are trends within data falling in-line with Fed and ECB monetary policy?
What is price action revealing about the fundamentals? What key fundamentals are correlated to the bigger moves in the market?

Research and Forecasting

How to research and forecast…

Connect all dots from all sources to each specific report
Consider real-time and future Fed and ECB monetary policy, specifically on interest rates
What is the market sentiment? What is the market reacting to?


Non-Farm Payrolls:

Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, 4-week moving average
Job layoff reports
ISM manufacturing & non-manufacturing employment component
Retail sales data (Redbook, Chain store, etc.)
Housing data (new, existing, pending, home prices paid, inventory, etc.)
Consumer Confidence & Michigan Sentiment
Beige Book, Fed Speeches, Interest Rate Policy

Non-Farm Payrolls Research:

Trade The News
Bloomberg & Financial Times
Wall St. earnings reports from retailers, manufacturers, service and consumer sector
Key word searches: layoffs, employment, jobs, employment growth, etc.
U.S. Dept. of Labor – Bureau of Labor Statistics – U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Bank forecasting for NFP

When researching, find answers to these questions:

What is the state of the consumer?
What is the state of the service, manufacturing, and industrial sectors?
What is the Fed and ECB telling the markets? What are they focused on and talking about?
What are the banks focused on? Employment? Growth? Interest rate policy?
What is the market focused on? What’s the “flavor of the week”?

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Don't Chase the market let the market come to you

Guidelines / Set-up

1. Trade type – scalp, intraday, or swing?
2. Risk / Money management – how much are you willing to risk? How much are you willing to give back?
3. Why are you taking this trade? What is the market showing you? What are you seeing?
4. Is the market meeting your parameters to take the trade? Is everything in alignment?
5. In general, what are your trading rules?

STAY CONSISTANT IN ALL THAT YOU DO

• Deviating from your trade rules will cause pain and losses
• Be consistent
• Be methodical
• Be vigilant
• No trade should be executed if the trade breaks your rules / guidelines. No trade should be executed if something is out of alignment.

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Don't Chase the market let the market come to you

Identifiable EUR/USD price patterns:

30-minute price openings
How many pips moved in 24-hour period?
How many pips moved between London and NY opening?
Price attempts - how many times did it attempt to go up or go down?
To what speed and degree is the euro moving?
What kind of momentum can been seen? How much energy is being exerted to move it?
What time of day is the euro moving?
Are the price movements erratic and spiking? Are the price movements orderly?
What was the price at when the euro started moving? Was it at the 00 level, 50 level, or other?
How many pips has it already moved as it approaches the next 00 or 50 level?
What kind of momentum does the price action display as it approaches the next 00 or 50 level?
When was the last time we were at this level?
How many times have we been at this level and what was the result?

Know the answer to those questions! The real "secrets" of the market are contained within the answers to those questions.

Price Action Mental Checklist:

30-min EUR/USD openings -- where are we at?
What's on the books today and this week?
What time of day is it?
How far have we moved since 1700 EST?
What is the real-time price action showing me?
What's gold and oil doing?
What's my bias - daily and overall?
Any central bank activities / speeches today?

Answers to questions on your mental checklist should be answered in 30 to 60 seconds.

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Don't Chase the market let the market come to you

complicated? not at all

it will take you very little time to do everything above once you get use to it

trust me it really is simple

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Don't Chase the market let the market come to you

now that you know and understand the fundis of the market

go back to your techs and bank your pips

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Don't Chase the market let the market come to you

sorry for getting so long winded.

much of the fundi stuff I learned from a now defunked site.

I scalp but every trader must know market sentiment and direction no matter the style and like it or not while techs are far superior IMO, you must also understand fundis

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Don't Chase the market let the market come to you

Yeah, right. And the sun comes up from the west.
By the time I get through your checklist, it'll be time to go in the opposite direction.

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Live Long And Prosper!
Rickos.

30 mins on sunday the rest become natural after you do them a few times

write it on you wall of notes, thats what I call the wall above my desk, it has all my little reminders and sticky notes

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Don't Chase the market let the market come to you

xiao you must be looking for " The Fundamentalist " .

And cody good work for the large info you typed to help her !!

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IGNORANCE, OVER CONFIDENCE, GREED AND FEAR ARE THE KEY FACTORS TO POOR TRADING !