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11-20-2007, 02:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ForexGirl
Agree that this is a plausible reason. But as we all read currency changing hands worldwide daily is more than 1 or 2 trillion and majority of that is the majors for biz purposes.So i would think compared with 1 trillion , 300 Mil is short change , not big anough to cause a blip.
I would like to see this still as a flow or a wave (not the Elliot one, too complex and good for making money to its sellers) and the trick to learn is learning something like swimming , cycling, driving etc .
Also if we introduce too many variables(like news, sma 300, MACD crosspver etc etc all together ) then it will become someting like a multibody problem in physics and we cannot really predict the correct outsome.
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Yesterday's advertised .0475 strike was described as 'large' by Thomson Financial and as such one would expect that price level to be both attacked and defended at some point before cut off and indeed, this is what appears to have occurred with Cable but then again it may have been a mirage ...
News and web sites such as DailyFX (particularly DailyFX - the real gem amongst paste) I find invaluable, sma 300 I've never tried and almost all other chart strudies, bar divergence, I find somewhat altogether confusing so I agree that more is not necessarily better when it comes to trading off a chart.
Anyhow, if 300 Mil is short change to you then I'd like to see your lingerie collection!
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11-20-2007, 02:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Black.day
With several countries thinking of abandoning the USD, Russia, Sudan, Iran, China, Saudi Arabia, Sth. Korea, Venzuela ... it might be worth considering what it all means goinf forward!
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Here's a nice little story seen today ...
FOREX: Venezuela Agrees with Iran on Abandoning USD 20/11/2007 19:07:00
San Francisco, November 20. The French press notes this afternoon that in the wake of meetings with France's Sarkozy, Venezuela"s Chavez reiterates his support of Iran"s proposal to abandon the dollar for oil transactions in favor of a basket of currencies. Earlier this morning, Russia"s finance minister stated that Russia may sell its oil in roubles in five years. The comments are nothing new from Chavez who made similar comments on the weekend. He says that the basket could include the euro, the yen and "why not the bolivar."
The Saudis were firmly against the view on the weekend and were afraid that news of the discussion would only push the USD lower, and in fact, it has continued to weaken to new lows v. the EUR and CHF this week. This no doubt has emboldened Chavez and his agenda.
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11-20-2007, 02:17 PM
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2 down, 5 to go ... more to come?
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11-20-2007, 02:21 PM
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EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.94 as nearly 66% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.78 as 64% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.8% lower than yesterday and 9.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.4% higher than yesterday and 16.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.1% stronger than yesterday and 0.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.
Source: FXCM Execution Desk
For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...140917987.html
For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968. |
11-20-2007, 03:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Black.day
Here's a nice little story seen today ...
FOREX: Venezuela Agrees with Iran on Abandoning USD 20/11/2007 19:07:00
San Francisco, November 20. The French press notes this afternoon that in the wake of meetings with France's Sarkozy, Venezuela"s Chavez reiterates his support of Iran"s proposal to abandon the dollar for oil transactions in favor of a basket of currencies. Earlier this morning, Russia"s finance minister stated that Russia may sell its oil in roubles in five years. The comments are nothing new from Chavez who made similar comments on the weekend. He says that the basket could include the euro, the yen and "why not the bolivar."
The Saudis were firmly against the view on the weekend and were afraid that news of the discussion would only push the USD lower, and in fact, it has continued to weaken to new lows v. the EUR and CHF this week. This no doubt has emboldened Chavez and his agenda.
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Here is one simple answer for "why not the bolivar ":
The United States is by far the largest importer and consumer of petroleum products in the world and the BRENT as i know it is still priced in dollar.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aiRdK_VcUFHU
and here is one for "chavez the school bully"
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=X3Kzbo7tNLg
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11-20-2007, 03:05 PM
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Don't put too much stock into Chavez. When Qatar and Saudi Arabia begin mulling this, then bail.
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11-20-2007, 03:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ivanovich
Don't put too much stock into Chavez. When Qatar and Saudi Arabia begin mulling this, then bail.
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Bail what? |
11-20-2007, 03:17 PM
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Only it all adds to the sentiment which isn't at it's strongest in terms of favourable for the USD but is it really that much stronger for the Euro? Certainly I don't think it's the case with Sterling.
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11-20-2007, 03:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Black.day
Only it all adds to the sentiment which isn't at it's strongest in terms of favourable for the USD but is it really that much stronger for the Euro? Certainly I don't think it's the case with Sterling.
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Exactly..Now you are getting to the point where u can think about how I get all my L collection.
Everywhere we see negative USD sentiments , but what about the euro and other currencies sentiments. It is significanly close to none or even insignificant. Else we would have seen the euro touching 2.5 or 4.0 or 10.0 or whatever by now , if it trades up 200 pips for each column devoted to it (anti USD) across all media.Same with sterling or swiss frank and all currencies. Even in exotic currency market media we see Anti USD talk by armchair analysts whom I am damn sure has not put even a single penny in any trade, while their currencies and economies are mainly surviving by feeding the U.S consumer.
My take is that , for now atleast, USD gets all the attention and blame and hence it is still the major currency and all are moving up or down with that. Trade the ups and downs without looking for a turn or a bail out and then one can trade successfully. Else one can read the "Economist" and be an economist.
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11-20-2007, 03:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ForexGirl
Else one can read the "Economist" and be an economist.
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Or appear on the front cover of the latest issue (I get the feeling no one fell for it anyway - can't think why)
What I'm on the look out for at the moment, especially with regards to Sterling (it being close to home), are the signs a sentiment shift away from the USD with a focus on the other side of the pair. It's here that I see the most value going forward but I won;t become an old stick-in-the-mud. |
11-20-2007, 03:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ForexGirl
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Words cannot describe how much I dislike Hugo Chavez, and that video gives me immeasurable joy.
I think all would be wise to ignore the warnings of Iran and Venezuela as far as the US dollar is concerned. China is the 500 pound gorilla we all have to watch out for, with nearly 1.6 trillion in forex reserves.
I really wish that oil prices would fall through the floor so as to strip Hugo Chavez of any and all attention from anyone outside of Venezuela. |
11-20-2007, 03:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Black.day
Or appear on the front cover of the latest issue (I get the feeling no one fell for it anyway - can't think why)
What I'm on the look out for at the moment, especially with regards to Sterling (it being close to home), are the signs a sentiment shift away from the USD with a focus on the other side of the pair. It's here that I see the most value going forward but I won;t become an old stick-in-the-mud.
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My point is simple. There is money in both up moves and down moves. If you read these "sentiments" we become sentimental a.k.a attached to one currency over other , and that is doom for a trader who wants to make money over one who wants to be first in the class and always right. |
11-20-2007, 04:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ForexGirl
My point is simple. There is money in both up moves and down moves.
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Now your begining to sound like a Forex Mademoiselle.
I think we are all becoming too complacent regarding the US dollar. If trading a pair were a a busy road then it makes sense to look both ways. Right about now I reckon we're curbside ... |
11-20-2007, 04:56 PM
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There it is. Short triggered, 1.4845. Let's play ball.
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11-20-2007, 06:05 PM
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eur the new dollar?
it seems that eur is turning into the new dollar. building a huge trade surplus with china, being bought up as a reserve currency.
still am not convinced with it though. seems that once europe economy starts hitting the skids the recriminations over the strength of the euro will become overwhelming. politically, the euroland is a lot more fragmented than the US.
it seems ridiculous that somehow the euroland will be exempt from the credit squeeze, and anyhow inflation in europe is lower than most major economies.
cant be long before they fall in line with the other central banks.
it wont do the US trade imbalance much good to depreciate against europe and canada. to think that the US will solve its problems by debasing its currency is a misconception.
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