Very meandering price action in the EURUSD today with little economic data to drive thing either way. We remain relatively range bound which creates very frustrating stop and go action in the market.

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EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.10 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.35 as 57% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 18.9% higher than yesterday and 16.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.5% lower than yesterday and 3.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.0% stronger than yesterday and 5.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...140917987.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

The absence of downside momentum is concerning me. Under normal circumstances, I would consider the break below 1.45 (and subsequent drop below a medium-term rising trendline) as a sign that we are in the midsts of a major trend change. However, with liquidity draining for the holiday, the mass of sellers needed to usher in a big is not here. It seems there is enough liquidity out there to keep absorb big orders, but not enough to get the ball rolling. Perhaps big traders are purposely staying away from big moves so they can close their books with relatively little worry going into the end of the year (though that is pure speculation).

Right now, I'm watching the second doji in a bullish tri-star formation - which is a relatively strong signal for a reversal if we get tomorrow's candle closing as a higher doji.

I still wouldn't take a long position if we did get a rebound, most likely I'll just add to my current short around 1.45 and widen my stop a little.

Any one taking any long-term positions despite the possibility of holiday volatility?

Dear Moderator,

good move, widen the stops,
well to prevent stops hunting, I need to widen even further.

E.g.

Short Euro 1.4500
Stop 1.5000
Target 1.4160

how about it ?

Update 9am ET
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awfully boring market. the weak IFO did not move the Euro much, obviously pple buying at 1.3360-70.
Trichet was impressive today, how we wish Bernanke was as good.
I think the market got the message, ECB is going to hold if not hike next yr, and FED is going to cut if not hold next yr.

nonetheless, it is still not yr end yet. AND very importantly, 1.5000 was never reached.

A new term for you guys:
CPDO - Constant Proportion Debt Obligations (CPDO). A credit instruments by ABN Amro, based on insuranceon corporate debts of Blue Chip companies. It is a highly leverage product, and it had been sold to the masses.
I personally was approached last yr to buy the product. It guarantees returns, till credit events happen to any of the 10 bluechips companies, e.g. Citi, IBM, Caterpillar, Honeywell, etc.

After the CDO debacle, is CPDO next ?
Would the corporate be dragged into Credit Crisis ?

update 9:50 ET
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white house office tower on fire. probably some black house staffer burning evidence.

Before I go on Xmas hols, if yu are facing foreclosure, burn your house, collect insurance and wood for fire to keep warm.


the greatest surprise would be:
Euro keep hugging 1.4400 into 2nd January.

---------------@hotmail.com

tough time trading ahead, a break below 4330 would simply make trading difficult, as ppl will pour in numbers to buy at attractive prices for a possible kiss and hugs to 1500 mrk.......

all goes in forex, with bias tilted up for euro, watching 4366-70 supp.... a break below 4350 puts all cards of and possible move to 4210 should unfold there about.......

as of now the only term to say it out is BORINGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG.....
very BORINGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG............ indeed..........

this is where u drop in heavy lots, take few piips, shut ur laptops and go have fun...........


good luck trading all..........

__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

This price action is very frustrating. We have almost nothing on the docket for the rest of this week and the next; and if the market continues to take profit and remove its stop and entry orders, there is little promise for a breakout move over the holidays. One of the big components of big moves during these low liquidity periods (like the one we saw over Thanksgiving 2006) is that a sizable push meets few counterparties to absorb the order, we see a spike, this spike hits a large group of floating stop or limit orders, then price is pushed ever further, juniors on the FX desk join the move, and then we can see round after round of orders triggered and a jump in from hedgers and speculators.

All this considered, the presence of 1.45 going into the low liquidity conditions is a concern for me. However, I'm sticking with my short position; but I think I'll watch the market at least a few times a day during my vacation to keep an eye on liquidity and possible monitor the big levels of support and resistance.

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EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.07 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.12 as 53% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.9% lower than yesterday and 21.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 7.4% lower than yesterday and 20.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.3% weaker than yesterday and 2.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.


Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

Ya, everybody waiting for Xmas indeed, not only you.

the norm now is to short Euro, the contrarian is to long.

What is DollarPro's call ???

Today would be a big day, b'cos we have GDP prices, PCE, it shows if the inflation is indeed elevated ?

In general, the world is entering into next yr of high inflation, b'cos we are seeing the 2nd round effects. It takes 6 months to 1 yr for such effects to seep into our food, clothings, etc.

Imagine Oil was 90++ weeks ago, you can imagine how high inflation would be by June 2008.

The closer it gets to election date, let us see how Bernanke handles. As the cliche goes, he is stuck between a rock and a hard place. I rather say he is stuck between the balls.

By the way, ladies and gentleman, oil is not falling, Gold is not falling.

I made a call for SPX to test 1408, let us see if it happen on Friday, i.e.
SPX has to make a 40 points drop on Thursday and Friday (option expiry date).

Watch the movie John Cusack "1408" to know how SPX would end up, and then how EURUSD would behave. Email me if you dun have time to watch the movie.

Next yr would be the year of Bird Flu, right now, there is a team of WHO investigators in Pakistan on a case of human to human transmission.

We are into a small scale pandemic, like a small scale Credit Crisis.

Hence the Equities market are not going higher. Through whipsawing, the Equities is sucking up all the spare cash on the sideline, e.g. the Soverign Funds, e.g. Abu Dhabi buying up Citi, Singapore buying UBS.
When these soverign funds dry up. It is almost the end, no more buyers. Technical still pointing to a BULL TREND in Equities, of course.

---------------@hotmail.com

Curious to know if you are seeing a falling wedge formation on the EUR on the hourlies. The 3 highs are 1.4452, 1.4436, 1.4423, and the two lows of 1.4330 and today's 1.4324. Correct me if i am wrong but, since we have hit 2 lows already we either breakout and test the neckline 1.4500-25 or we go to 1.4315-00 and then re-test the neckline. Or do some believe this is a shakey analysis.

it is a falling wedge all right. however the pattern may fail, and gun for 1.4520. and fail. that completes the correction.
Email me for my forecast next week.

---------------@hotmail.com

Looking at a 240 min EURUSD chart and the descending triangle (bearish), I think if price drops below immediate support the pair will target 1.4240/50. However, it remains to be seen whether or not the scenario will play out.

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DollarPro 2nd round effects may be tempered by curbed consumer demand - we'll have to see. So far high crude has not translated into massively higher gas prices and as long as gas is $3/gallon price pressures may be contained but if we go to $4 by March - no doubt Fed is in a pickle. The 'bird flu" - choose your own exogenous shock - is an interesting idea. Everyone is projecting linearly that the environment will stay the same, but in fact in 2008 non-economic events may have a much greater impact than we believe.

added more longs to initial 4336 longs at 4315.
now have avg longs at 4326. limits for 4336 stands at 4466 and open for 4315.
i will however bail on one longs from 4315 at 4335 stall.
all stops 4286..........
good luck all.........

__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

personally

Long Euro 1.4310 to 1.4340
Target 1.4520
Stoploss 1.4280

Yes, we see a dropping wedge, but likely followed by a rebound, to target,
before a more pronouced drop next week.

Trigger point is the GDP (good figure), good PCE deflator => FED can cut.

by 8:30 am ET, Euro should be hovering 1.4350 waiting for the signal. Euro short covering would take place.