Hello Everyone,

I have a question very similar to the one Missing put up a little while ago. I tend to put stop losses for my trades a little bit past strong Fibonacci supports or resistances (about 10-15 pips past 61.8% retracements). Do you think that's enough? The reason why I ask is because I keep getting SLed out of trades by short-term breaks of the retracement only to see the currency pair make the profit that I thought it was going to make. I can attest to Missing's frustration because its very annoying to see yourself getting the overall analysis right but still losing money. Please let me know what you guys think!

Thanks!

p.s. A good example of this would be when I limit shorted gbp/usd at 1.6645 with a SL at 1.6680 (20 pips above the 1.666 61.8% resistance). The price skyrocketed to 1.6690, only to fall back down to its current position at 1.6573.

I would recommend Forex Patterns & Probabilities by Ed Ponsi
excellent book to read

dr.nys.

Its a good book to read about setting stop losses around support and resistance levels. It shows you what to do and gives you a good way not be taken out by MMs.

I have read Patterns & Probabilities and yes there are some good points in it. I just find its as if the bigger institutional traders "know" the plan of the little trader and typically placing a stop 15 or whatever pips below the MA/support level/Fib etc tends to get taken out.
This forces me to go a bit longer again then i am comfortable with when placing my SL. This in turn means the larger SL means having to have a higher target point and so on. There are many times my SL has been hit and then within 10 or so pips the market then rallies to my target price, yet when i increase my SL level my higher target (placed higher to keep a ratio of 1.5:1 or so minimum) is not reached. I sometimes feel it would be better to stick to a 1:1 ratio. Obviously this is a generalisation and the target varies in accordance with previously resistance so i dont mean EXACTLY 1.5:1 or 1:1

is anyone short this pair had placed order (came close) but no go.
1.41 to be tested again???
whats your view(s)

Interesting take, I share your views once again (same as on USDJPY forum). You seem to have nice grip on the overall trend bias. I've attached my Bias for the majors below which I posted yesterday.

I'm already in few trades from that list and waiting for further confirmation on few others.

1.41 well who knows if its going to be even lower than that its quite over-due BTW IMO ...

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US Dollar in the Crosshairs: Not Much to Like Long-Term
Published: Thursday, 13 Aug 2009 | 11:44 AM ET By: Jeff Cox
CNBC.com

The verdict appears to be in for the US dollar, and it's not looking good long-term.

A tepid domestic economic recovery—against faster growth in other parts of the world—likely will weigh against the greenback.

Indeed, commodity traders continue to bet against the dollar, inflating oil prices even as demand sags and keeping gold—the ultimate inflation hedge—above $900 an ounce.

While investors expect the belief that the worst is over for the US economy will keep a floor beneath the dollar, the prognosis over the long haul remains bearish.

Jeff Cox
Staff Writer
CNBC.com
"Medium- to longer-term we certainly think the dollar is going to be weaker rather than stronger," said Giles Conway-Gordon, co-chief investment officer at Cogo Wolf Asset Management in San Francisco. "There are still problems for the US economy in terms of global competitiveness. One possible solution to that is going to be a weaker dollar."

Economic data released Thursday around the world underscored the hurdles the dollar will face.

In the US, retail sales took an unexpected drop that came despite the government's highly touted "Cash for Clunkers" automobile trade-in program, while jobless claims, which had been seen as ebbing, instead grew last week.

At the same time, both Germany and France proclaimed an end to their respective recessions as gross domestic product rose 0.3 percent in both nations for the second quarter.

Analysts at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch cited "an improved macro backdrop and the reduced likelihood of a risk shock" in changing their dollar forecast against the euro from $1.38 to $1.50 by year's end.

The dollar faces other problems as well.

Even as it handles a massive debtload, the Federal Reserve remains under pressure to hold interest rates low in order to keep the flow of cash intact. On cue, the Fed said Tuesday following its two-day meeting that it was keeping the target rate near zero and remains cautious about the economy.

While the Fed broke recent tradition by not warning of weakening conditions, it only said the economy was stabilizing.

"The main problem is the consumer," Conway-Gordon said. "We think the consumer is going to be deleveraging for quite some time...We can't see the Fed raising rates until well into next year."

Follow the dollar index in our currencies section
Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman echoed that assessment, predicting in analysis released before the Fed decision "downside risk for the dollar if the FOMC statement dampens speculation of a Fed hike in Q1 next year, or if the Fed surprises the market by extending its Treasury purchases, as the $300 billion commitment will be complete next month." The Fed did say it was extending the program, but only by a month, through October.

Finally, there are worries about whether foreign investors will lose their confidence in the US currency if the economic recovery doesn't accelerate.

"If they have second thoughts about the quality of this currency, then the dollar is bound to weaken," Deutsche Bank Chief Economist Norbert Walter told CNBC in an interview Thursday. That means higher long-term interest rates for a country where government debt is approaching 100 percent of gross domestic product.

To be sure, not all the signs are bearish for the dollar, and some analysts believe any drops in the greenback will not be precipitous.

The narrowing trade gap means less demand for foreign currency, while economists also are getting less worried about inflation threats.

"More than likely we could drift lower in terms of emerging-markets currencies," said Tom Higgins, chief economist at Payden & Rygel in Los Angeles. "The fundamentals I see in Europe and the UK and even Japan don't seem to warrant a much weaker dollar and a much stronger euro, pound or yen. You're more likely to see the dollar drift lower modestly but not significantly lower, although everybody seems to think the dollar is on the verge of collapse."

Higgins predicted a "fat chance" of the Fed inflating the economy out of recession and said a reasonable level — 3 percent or so — would be good for a recovery.

"Dr. Doom" Marc Faber, meanwhile, is predicting a period of stronger dollar growth that will pressure the US stock market. The author of the "Gloom, Doom and Boom Report" cited likely improvements in emerging and established markets as factors that will boost currency levels.

Another positive sign was the dollar actually strengthening last Friday when the monthly unemployment report saw a slight decline in the jobless rate. Positive economic data had been previously leading to dollar selloffs.

"We think that should help. It's kind of reversing some of the trends," said Brad Sorensen, sector analyst at Charles Schwab. "We think the dollar will tend to strengthen a little bit, not substantially, but stabilize and strengthen through the course of the year."

A stronger dollar, though, seems at best to be a contrarian view at this point.

"The big surprise could be the dollar hangs in there and possibly even strengthens, because everybody believes it's going to weaken," Higgins said. "At this point if I'm talking near term for the next six months, I'd be more inclined towards a weaker dollar, but just not dramatic."

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Live Long And Prosper!
Rickos.

lol i should have just hit u up on YIM
i am playing the game this way even if CPI comes in under estimated
things get cheaper...people love to spend...savings rate has been solid...gives good cause to open the pocket book up = a good back to school season and a fair holiday season
(yes it's about that time again kids), US markets seem to be just about flat like it's lost the umph! <---my view if things were so good wouldn't we have seen DOW 10k S&P 1200???

Dollar Will Rise and Punish Assets: Marc Faber
Published: Thursday, 13 Aug 2009 | 1:47 AM ET By: CNBC.com
A period of weak stock markets and strong dollar is likely to come after the strong rally in developed and emerging markets alike, Marc Faber, the author of "The Gloom, Doom and Boom Report," told CNBC.


Emerging markets have seen even stronger moves since the lows hit last year and in the spring of this year, Faber said.

China's stock market bottomed out in October last year and has recently shown signs of weakness, while Russia is down 20 percent from the peak, he added.

"I expect now for the next couple of months a period of a recovering dollar and weak assets," Faber said. "A strong dollar means global liquidity tightening."

The dollar will strengthen because the US economy is the least cyclical, but developing countries are more exposed.

"In a scenario where growth will be disappointing, I think emerging markets are vulnerable. I think we had huge increases in stock prices, a lot of markets have doubled in price," he said.

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Live Long And Prosper!
Rickos.

Hummm...so Asherewt you think it will drop below 1.39?

By the way, can anyone tell me how to set the chart in FXCM to a 4 hour setting? I can only find 60 minutes setting.

Cheers!

File - Create Marketshot - type in H4 in Period box - click OK

Thank you very much!

Cheers!

good evening Cmellon, do you happen to have a delta count for the EU?

Thanks

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Don't Chase the market let the market come to you

Hi Twinkle,

Good to see you back. Few things I've learned during last year or so are:

1. Do not make projections (looking for S/R is safe to do so)
2. Just ride the wave with no prejudice in mind
3. Keep Profit Targets open
4. Look for Reversal Signs

Based on the above, I usually do not care how far a particular pair will go and I just like to trade with an open mind and be ready to take profits whenever we've reversal signs in sight

So, I don't know whether its 1.41, 1.39, 0.33 or 2.59 no idea just pure swing trading ...

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Hi there... I have noticed you are trading silver and gold... What platform can you do this on?

TB