Strategist,

Good analysis, but I have an alternative wave count that could be considered.....If you look at the weekly chart, than the current top of the trend at 1.4987 is the top of wave 3. The pull back to 1.4360 is the 38.2% retracement of wave 3 of the 3 wave correctionf....leaving us with a wave 5 that would target a minimum of 1.4987 if truncated, or most likely the fib projection > 1.52.

I suppose this will only be confirmed by a move to 1.4750....the fib time projection has this peak occuring on 2/4/08........I suppose only time will tell
.

Attached Files

Euro 12-23-07.doc (91.0 KB, 146 views)

__________________
Chemistry....It's Elementary!

Hi there mashehri............. if you could tell me where I can upload the charts you posted, I could prolly tell you the technical whereabouts in terms of resis/supp........
By the way, I reside in Dubai and I must tell you, the only drawback in local exchange is the question of liquidity and the interference of few major players including from Singapore and Hong Kong, manipulating things.

however i read yesterday that Saudi Arabia is pulling up a massive USD 900 Billion funds and would be investing in western financial houses which would eventually change the whole knowabout the things are heading at the moment.
this fund is suppose to be the world' biggest in terms of liquidity and more could be added with ease..... this is where we see Abu dhabi buying 4.9% stake in Citi for 7.5 B USD......
it is interesting by all means and clearly shows the forthcoming need to reach beyond horizon for any and all and by all means.................

__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

Yr Very Welcome .
Its Always Free, and I usually post the PDF(s) on Moneytec http://www.moneytec.com/forums/f128/...23/page29.html
U can currently get Analysis on AUD/YEN & NZD/YEN there. I believe both are ripe for a carry trade to 102 (in case of AUD/YEN) & 92/96 (in case of NZD/YEN).
Merry Christmas & V.Happy 2008

__________________
Sincere Regards
Summerset
______________________________
* If you have a positive view towards what you are reading. Don’t take that to mean that you should follow it. It could PROVE ALL WRONG. If you have a negative view towards it, then CERTAINLY you won’t bother with it. If you have no idea what its talking about, then please DON’T EXPERIMENT with it !! ! …In SHORT, what THIS disclaimer is telling you IS :-
TRADERS TRADE AT THEIR OWN PERIL – PERIOD

this is a 3 month old prediction. What leads you think it has not been revised since then?? Please read the posts in here first before posting as I have seen many by him and others change as the market changes, this is the way of the forex market.

I'm sure everyone here, those that trade fulltime or parttime, would never blindly follow anothers advise, only those new to forex would do so and that is one of the many reasons so many fail.

Exactly, as I have written last Friday, 1.4400++ has been reached as forecasted.
Well, I update my Fellowship daily, and I have breifed them on my target.

I am quite amused that pple single me out for bashing. 1 year ago, I met similar people by the name "SNAKE", and I was bashed upside down. Now the "SNAKE" never appears anymore.

I have been on this forum since Jan 2006,
the proudest call I made was for Euro to 1.3000 and 1.5000 when it was at 1.18. (read the backlogs)

Lately the nearest accomplishment was the call from 1.4700 to reach 1.4500, 1.4300.

If you have followed my calls, you probably have made lots of pips.

Now what is my next call ?? you got to read my blog.

One thing is for sure, calls are constantly revised according to market situation. None of us in this public forum owe any duty to others to keep the calls updated.

Wish you all a Merry Christmas.

a Few months ago, it was 200B from the China foreign investment agency overhanging the market,
now Saudi Arabia 900B.

Why are all these seemingly optimistics information coming out ?

it is meant to nudge the market higher and higher.

We buy to sell. When you pour 900B into the market, you have to sell it somehow.
If you buy 900B oneshot, market would rocket, others would sell it before the Saudis can take profit.

Essentially the 900B has no where to go.

Where does the 900B comes from ? It is from the livelihood of the Saudis, their oil. Saudi Arabia and other middle-eastern countries, essentially have no industries, except their oil.

They are now trying fervently to invest, diversify. Why ? B'cos their oil is running out. The oil caverns underground are now filled with air, and they are pumping in water to fill it.

Why is Singapore so active in acquisitions (Meryll Lynch, Standard Chartered, Barclay) ? B'cos their manufacturing is going away. Lucky the HKers, they have China backing.

Imagine, if you are resting on a pot of GOLD, would you be so aggressive in seeking other means. Nope, probably, you would booze away.

Now, if you know that your pot of GOLD is turning rusty, you would want to quickly sell it and seek other means of livelihood.

The 900B is just a milestone in the drying up of the Oil wells in middle-east.

US and China has been incessantly accumulating oil from the open market. Hence the high oil price, not for war but "Peak Oil".

The world is now in its last leg (Elliot terms Mega Wave 5), it last yrs for the leg to finish. But we know the END is coming. It is definitely not getting better when the top is in.

Before it ends, there has to be a multi-year fan fare, for the families to cash out.

Expect the Bull Trend in Equities to continue, soaking up all the liquidities, when the last buyer comes in, the JUDGEMENT DAY has come.

How would the END be ?

FOMC would be defunct (why would you need a committee, when the market decides the rates ?). United States split into several states. China to take the throne. CNY to be the world reserve currency. Oil 500 USD/barrel.
You and I problably reduced to dust.

DUST to DUST. Then why are we trading ?

I read the PDF file.
good reading.
It says EURO to reach 1.8 eventually.

Now, should we buy now ? 1.4400 to 1.8000, almost 4000 pips !!!!!!

(that is why forex starters lose monies trading on all these useless analysis)

and you guy say "where can I find more info like that? " (soooo Sweeet)

I tell you where you can find those, in my toilet bowl.


I updated my readers with this chart on GBPUSD, when it was hovering at 1.9800 the entire Asia morning.
I was looking for further GBP weakness. Indeed it reached 1.9758.

The PDF explicitly calls to buy 4070/4135 --> Target 4950/5120 - Not 1.8000
4950/5120 is my call target for the coming 1st Quarter - to end March 08.
That too is explicitly shown on the PDF.

Mark the dates well, because Unlike you, I don't change my analysis every 2-3 days, based on Voodoo crack talk and doomsday signs that you dream up.

As for yr toilet bowl, thats what U stick yr head in.

__________________
Sincere Regards
Summerset
______________________________
* If you have a positive view towards what you are reading. Don’t take that to mean that you should follow it. It could PROVE ALL WRONG. If you have a negative view towards it, then CERTAINLY you won’t bother with it. If you have no idea what its talking about, then please DON’T EXPERIMENT with it !! ! …In SHORT, what THIS disclaimer is telling you IS :-
TRADERS TRADE AT THEIR OWN PERIL – PERIOD

SSI update:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.14 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.01 as 50% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 6.1% lower than yesterday and 6.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.6% higher than yesterday and 10.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.2% weaker than yesterday and 3.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

Despite yesterday's brush with parity, my SSI-based EURUSD bias remains to the topside. The sudden jump in short positions and similar drop in longs tell us that the crowd is selling. Though the SSI is a pretty poor indicator in times of range trading (which is what we're seeing now), I think the EURUSD could see further topside correction.

Now I am VERY new to this but I'd like to add my opinion and welcome comments.


I think the Euro could gain back some ground {100-200 pips } however, I think the Euro stands to suffer up to 2,000 pips vs the dollar or more in the next 6 months to 1 year.

Other currency pairs I follow closely are the GBP/USD I think the Pound will lose as much to the USD as does the Euro in 6-12 months with little chance of any significant increases in the Pound during this slide

Lastly I Like the Euro vs the Pound over the next 6 months to a year with little increases in the pound during 6-12 months. I don't know how much the Euro will gain here but I view this as a safe position.

Thanks, Kevin

sometimes you just want to share information, whether it is relevant or not..
by the way 900 bil by all means is relevant........
when u talk about globalization, u need to broaden your thoughts here... it is not just setting big frachises and industries by all the rich and powerful sect, or rather it is not limited to it.......
those who depends on industries would and could only think of it. then there is a breed that is bit different........ if you believe the bigger moth would eventually have a big part or role to play in your region whether u like it or not, then might as well, become a part of it...... if you can't beat them and join them in the same race........ You buy a part of it in percentage and infact make more hay while sun is shining....
If u believe Bill Gates is the richest person on earth simply cuz Forbes says it, again u need to recheck the reality..... There are ppl. Who can buy Gates 10 times in a row and yet it won’t put a dent in their wealth......... the reality is far different then what u may think......
Coming back to the 900 bil........... Well to start off with u can start ur own new exchange with ease........ or u take stake in the already running business.
when u can get to control the nerve centre of the capital market then why bother with lil things..........
they have the money to do so...... let it be oil money or real estate or whatever......
by the way Saudi alone during the Hajj Pilgrimage earn slightly over 25 bil USD in royalty....... do the math’s+ combine extra 60 USD u earn per barrel u r exporting and the balance sheet requires a major force of CPA working round the clock keeping up with the pace.....
prior to 9-11 the excess funds were transferred to USA on buying properties or for safe keeping...... after 9-11 when they started to seeing their funds been frozen they are keeping their wealth and investment confined to other regions......... Dubai is the biggest example........... rt now there are more cranes working round the clock simply building and building more than the whole world combine together......... the fact is these are the funds that’s been pumped in by Saudi's mainly and the Kuwaiti's........ if u haven’t been here u have no idea what I’m talking about....
the point been these ppl have evolved into a better breed where only the best is invested in and acquired and the results so far are jubilant.....
900 bil again is a small beginning in their aim to reach global and actually start owing shares and stakes........ so whatever these financial institutes will make, they will take a chunk out of it..........
throw in the scenario of the mortgage crisis and lending problems and the write off the banks are forced to do, u end up having a cheaper deal.....
I don’t know if u remember, these govs were big buyer of Euro around 1.23 and were dumping USD then.......... so u can very well imagine what bargained they must have got................... in short what was or will be work for 10 USD, they prolly got it for less than 4 USD.......... bring out you calc and start adding the figures....... buy the time u r done, that 900 has evolved into 2 trillion.........
if u r as good as u think u r, u need to come down here....... for the rt mind and skill u could easy net million USD in salary and compensations... I kid u not......... that is what they are doing.. hiring n retaining the best in the world..................

as to why we trade, well I do cuz I know there is a big pond, rather ocean of money and would like to fill a bottle or two.............

so why do u trade................

__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

hi..


DollarPro.

Just wondering if your still using that method called...Modified Sibkis system.

__________________
regards

John M

Live long and prosper.
Any information in this post is for discussion purposes only.

what happened to this theory?

i just opened the station to c my 4466 tgt is achived.
now last longs are open and will see if 4515-35 could be taken out.
EDIT:

opened hedge shorts at avg 4488............ looking for small retrace or possibly till 4430-45 to be out....

__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

Opened shorts on euppy at 165.36, more wating at 165.77..

looking for ride to 164.74/85 and would like to be out today..
in case if i get the higher euppy shorts getting triggered then my tgt becomes 165.05 on all............

__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...