Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 1518

Sean Hyman · #**22756** (**permalink**) 08-17-2009, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taiwan614

To add to Franosh's comment, I'm pretty new to FX as well, and use that calendar to mark the times that I should AVOID trading. The reason is there will be wild swings during these economic releases, and I've seen 200 pip moves first in one direction, then an equally large counter move, that would wipe out the majority stop losses.

Also I avoid times when there is thin trading since the spread can be quite large. I think I saw a 25 pip spread on USDCHF once.

Good luck!

Good to meet you. I'm the dailyFX moderator and Course Instructor.

Yes, Taiwan614 if you are a shorter term trader, then it could be good to avoid the times directly before and after the news events. However, if you're a swing trader (holding trades for days to a week or two) then many times it won't change the larger trend direction..but it can change a short term one (intraday trend for instance).

FX4 · #**22757** (**permalink**) 08-17-2009, 11:58 AM

EURUSD

Date and time : August 17th 16PM GMT
trading bais : bearish
Tp1 : 1.3816 = ema 50 in w1
TP2: 1.3741 = former fib ret 38.2% (acting as support now)
screen here : 2009-08-17_1753

kr
Jerry

Sean Hyman · #**22758** (**permalink**) 08-17-2009, 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FX4

EURUSD

Date and time : August 17th 16PM GMT
trading bais : bearish
Tp1 : 1.3816 = ema 50 in w1
TP2: 1.3741 = former fib ret 38.2% (acting as support now)
screen here : 2009-08-17_1753

kr
Jerry

Good insights, FX4. This is Sean Hyman, DailyFX Moderator & Course Instructor. Good to meet you.

Yeah, here's something else to keep an eye on since USD/CHF tends to trade opposite of EUR/USD generally speaking and has somewhat of a "mirrored effect" over time.

There's a crucial support that may be good to watch.

See what you think.

tribuforex.com · #**22759** (**permalink**) 08-17-2009, 12:34 PM

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Franosh · #**22760** (**permalink**) 08-17-2009, 01:03 PM

Euro needs to have a sustained break below 1.4030/35 (the yellow box) for it to go quickly down, methinks.

Sean Hyman · #**22761** (**permalink**) 08-17-2009, 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Franosh

Euro needs to have a sustained break below 1.4030/35 (the yellow box) for it to go quickly down, methinks.

Yes, correct. Many bearish signs out there at the moment. See my chart below. Great job in looking for solid breaks of support as a signal to short with the downward momentum.

HomerJSimpson · #**22762** (**permalink**) 08-17-2009, 01:47 PM

Do you think that the euro could retrace to 1.43 or 1.44 before heading down again?

I made an entry order to sell at 1.44, think that stands a chance?

Sean Hyman · #**22763** (**permalink**) 08-17-2009, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HomerJSimpson

Do you think that the euro could retrace to 1.43 or 1.44 before heading down again?

I made an entry order to sell at 1.44, think that stands a chance?

Good question, Homer. It could..but it's nore likely that it would go to the bottom of that green uptrend line that it broke earlier and top out around 1.4150ish. We'll see.

However, on my chart below is another potential scenario. It could rally up to the 50 sma/red down line.

Steve125 · #**22764** (**permalink**) 08-17-2009, 02:11 PM

On the intraday this will be the 3rd time it see resistance at 38.2 retrace on 1.4158>1.4045. Once at the open of New York, then the London close.

Just noticed the 45 SMA sits there too and we have not closed below that I think since early July.

Sean Hyman · #**22765** (**permalink**) 08-17-2009, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve125

On the intraday this will be the 3rd time it see resistance at 38.2 retrace on 1.4158>1.4045. Once at the open of New York, then the London close.

Just noticed the 45 SMA sits there too and we have not closed below that I think since early July.

Yeah a retrace of some sort is likely over the upcoming hours to day.

What do you other guys think?

Franosh · #**22766** (**permalink**) 08-17-2009, 02:28 PM

I think the retrace is a bit 'overdue'. If this is the first leg down of wave 3 of a higher degree, it needs to retrace a bit up for a smaller degree wave 2, before the second leg of downward trend can start. It is going up a bit at the moment, but extremely sluggish. On 4H chart MACD there is potential positive divergence.

But S&P has not moved much after a huge gap down. Perhaps this needs to be shaken out of its torpor first.

HomerJSimpson · #**22767** (**permalink**) 08-17-2009, 02:52 PM

After a retrace, do you think we'll head back to 1.40?

I saw somebody say they thought there was a chance of the euro, after a retrace, then heading down to 1.38. Think there's much chance of that?

Sean Hyman · #**22768** (**permalink**) 08-17-2009, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Franosh

I think the retrace is a bit 'overdue'. If this is the first leg down of wave 3 of a higher degree, it needs to retrace a bit up for a smaller degree wave 2, before the second leg of downward trend can start. It is going up a bit at the moment, but extremely sluggish. On 4H chart MACD there is potential positive divergence.

But S&P has not moved much after a huge gap down. Perhaps this needs to be shaken out of its torpor first.

Yeah, the MACD could give it a bounce higher. If someone wasn't in the position, or if they were at a point where they wanted to add to the position, then they might consider waiting until the pair breaks back down again. That way, the momentum will likely be back with them and not against them.

Just a thought. See what you guys think.

Steve125 · #**22769** (**permalink**) 08-17-2009, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HomerJSimpson

After a retrace, do you think we'll head back to 1.40?

I saw somebody say they thought there was a chance of the euro, after a retrace, then heading down to 1.38. Think there's much chance of that?

I'm watching the 45 day SMA as a potental for old support becoming the new resistance. We could see the 138 -137.50 if that turns out.

Sean Hyman · #**22770** (**permalink**) 08-17-2009, 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HomerJSimpson

After a retrace, do you think we'll head back to 1.40?

I saw somebody say they thought there was a chance of the euro, after a retrace, then heading down to 1.38. Think there's much chance of that?

Well, I just take it one step at a time and "follow" the trend rather than trying to see where it goes or ends.

That's what most of us pros do. Trade the trend...assume it continues until it doesn't. You've moved your stop in the direction of the trader periodically for when it changes and then you end up making a decent profit on the profits that you protected along the way by moving your stop.

There's a great chance of continued downside action from the EUR/USD if this pair breaks below the black line below and its 50 day SMA on the daily chart that it's practically sitting on right now. Just my opinion.