....Time the wave.

short GBP 0326..........aim @ 9850
short EUR 3770..........aim @ 3100
long CHF 2038...........aim @ 2600

still holding the same positions unfortunately I didnt add any shots on Cbl....and I'm very angry with myself....fear of loosing made me blind.

Breeze

__________________
Warning follow @ own risk...I dont use stop loss I hedge

From our early note:

Tonight’s sharp correction may reflect a new understanding on the part of some market traders that expectations for a another ECB rate hike in September have been overly optimistic. Indeed the downward adjustment in prices appears to be the result of a more sober ---essment of EZ growth going forward as high exchange rates begin to impact production.

This may be a bigger theme as we approach IFO.

by the way what is an IFO...

Breeze

__________________
Warning follow @ own risk...I dont use stop loss I hedge

Bull----, read my header.
There are Treasury notes sale this week, Wed, Thursday, hence USD buying ahead of this.
Hence the current USD rebound is only temporary, lasting till Thursday the latest.
Through my intermarket analysis, the DJ, S&P pullback has completed this round of correction, and ready for the next wave up => USD to weaken further to propel the Equities past the recent top.
Expect DJ 14,500, S&P 1600 within 2 months easily, if not surp---ed.

Noting that China and Singapore government has just injected new cash into the Barclay buyout of ABN. The equities rallies are sanctioned by the cash rich or trade surplus countries.

Probably China government is swapping its USD receivables into Euro cash for the buyout. Hence expect another bout of Euro strength when the deal is about to sign. Or rather the market is positioning for the next Euro rally probably to 1.42 and beyond. (earlier I forecast 1.40, however expect Equities to hit hitoric high, that justifies 1.43 to 1.45).

The worst case is Euro to hover around 1.37 to 1.38 for weeks, while Equities inch slow higher.

The subprime is only a media hoax to scare. Come on, what is a loss of hundred millions matter to the banks, when their single banker already earn 1 billion a year.

Tell you what, go and take up a housing mortgage, or perhaps a few mortgages, rent it out to those who sold (or never bought). Rents is going up by the way. Earn rents for 1 year and then walk away from your mortgage. And dun worry, Fed is paying for your mortgage in the end.

Hence, I suspect Housing would recover somewhat, b'cos this is the new way of deriving equities from your housing mortgage.
There is no moral obligation on your part, especially when the Fed governors are more guilty than you, throwing monies into the market at will.

Helicopter Ben has finally arrived.

Any way, StarBucks raised its coffee by 90 cents, no mean feat. The Fed cannot bluff the public anymore. The Fed is just a crony of the Republican, funding for the next winning in the election, and of course the Iraq war all this while.

How is Inflation tame, when everything is going up ? Fed is just like Bill when he says he has no sexual relationship with Lewinski. The American society has lost it TRUST WORTHINESS, as does it monies.

My wife call USD Banana money, fit for the Monkeys.

Long Euro 1.3700
Target 1.4000
Stoploss 1.3650

He was referring to the German IFO Business Sentiment survey. You can read more about it here:

http://www.fxwords.com/i/ifo-busines...euro-zone.html

as expected Euro now testing 1.3700, good point to reenter for a rally.
DJ and S&P stage a strong rebound upon good Amazon earnings.

well, it is kind of boring, not much challenging to earn monies. it is a no-brainer job. Buy at support, sell at resistance.

not enough reason for USD to recover, when Equities is so strong, and market apettite for risk is still strong.

Expect Euro to rally towards 1.4000 from here, while S&P towards 1600, DJ 14,500.
Bullish trend still in place. the subprime is just a media hoax.

News posted in the calendar section appears to be off this week. The calendar showed Beige book yesterday yet it is going to be released today.
Was German IFO released this morning?

Calendar says Durable goods US$ today apparently not

Euchre

We are not sure what you are looking at. Perhaps you have your days off. Today is Wed. Our calendar shows Beige Book today followed by IFO tomorrow.

See Calendar

I think we have a real break here - even if we do bounce tomorrow, it should not rise beyond 1.3852, the prior all-time high. A nice break of the 20-day SMA at this point (1.3700) would see a move down to 1.3575. MACD is crossing lower, RSI has now moved back below 70.

I have an xls file I downloaded when you first posted it, you must have updated it bec. it clearly showed IFO on Wed and Beige on Tues.

Thanks for clearing it up.

25-Jul JPY BOJ Board Member Noda Speaks at the Financial Conference 1:30 21:30
Wed JPY BOJ Board Member Noda Holds Press Conference 5:00 1:00
GBP Nationwide House prices, nsa (YoY) (JUL) 6:00 2:00 10.6% 11.1%
GBP Nationwide House prices, sa (MoM) (JUL) 6:00 2:00 0.5% 1.1%
EUR Italian Retailers' Confidence General (JUL) 7:30 3:30 110.7
EUR Italian Services Survey (JUL) 7:30 3:30 28
EUR Euro-Zone M3, sa (YoY) (JUN) 8:00 4:00 10.7% 10.7%
EUR Euro-Zone M3, sa (3m) (JUN) 8:00 4:00 10.6% 10.7%
EUR German IFO - Business Climate (JUL) 8:00 4:00 106.5 107
EUR German IFO - Current ---essment (JUL) 8:00 4:00 111.0 111.4
EUR German IFO - Expectations (JUL) 8:00 4:00 102.1 102.8
GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (JUN) 8:30 4:30 77443
USD Durable Goods Orders (JUN) 12:30 8:30 1.8% -2.4%
USD Durables Ex Transportation (JUN) 12:30 8:30 0.5% -0.4%
USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 21) 12:30 8:30 310K 301K
USD Continuing Claims (JUL 14) 12:30 8:30 2540K 2571K
USD New Home Sales (JUN) 14:00 10:00 900K 915K
USD New Home Sales (MoM) (JUN) 14:00 10:00 -1.6% -1.6%
USD Help Wanted Index (JUN) 14:00 10:00 27 27


Euchre

DailyFX:
I'm a P&L'er....perhaps the last of the poets. If the Eur/DLS closes below
1.3794 today we should be in a down trend, if we stay below that for the
next 3 days. Nevertheless....one should learn a lesson about second guess-
ing and not paying attention to history. I refer to DollarPro and his comment
about the subprime. Through out history....going all the way back to 1618
one of the earlier financial crises where the speculation in subsidiary coin,
exchanging bad for good, and then debasement of coins by weight, fineness,
and denomination...as a result, the "crash" on February 1622. From that
time on....most of the many "crashes" were the result of "real estate"
and "equidy market". Each of them had their bubbles, and then came the
implosion. It wasn't very long ago...in 1980, in Tokyo, the real estate and
stock price bubbles. And now...."Hello Dolly".....REAL ESTATE...falling off
the cliff....and the STOCKS trying to be astronauts, and everyone creaming
in their jeans...and buying at the top. Media hoax?....or should you be
aware that this is just another economic environment that cultivates, rather
than a belief in the Golden Rule, chicanery, cupidity, and rapaciousness ...as
so graciously expressed by Peter Bernstein.
ciao,
Bronkovich

Hi Euchre. Sorry for the misunderstanding. There were indeed errors in the initial publication of the calendar, but they were soon corrected and a revised calendar was posted on the website. We apologize for the confusion.

From now until early to mid 2008, the super-long range projection for the EURUSD is Short - period.

EURUSD has pinged just under a 13 year high. There's nothing supporting a $1.4535 move from a probability standpoint (I'm a pure technical trader). Fundamentals might support that type of move, but I don't even see that on the horizon as far as news is concerned.

Today, is a watershed event. This short break represents the initiation of the Annual Apex Short Cycle - or what I call, the AASC. It came rather late this year and waited until July to formulate and show itself. That fact is a huge signal to the "wise" super-long term "trader" in the EURUSD. There is no need to panic, however given today’s move. Entry pricing into the AASC near the $1.3852 (for the long-term "trader") will be seen again.

Bottom line, the stored probability/potential for the Annual short side move has reached critical levels for the 2007 to 2008 apex (every year has its own apex).

Go back and look at 2006's high of 3365, 2005's high of 3571, 2004's high of 3664 and then take a look across the vast ocean of what you DON'T SEE between 2004's high and 1997's high of 3669. Then look at 1995's high of 4535 in contrast to 2007's high of (currently) 3852. Take a look at the Annual Low's for each of the same years, then compare it tot he Annual low of this year. Again, this only applies to the super-long term "trader/investor". 2007 blew its top and went 13 years deep into history with its move up to 3852. That’s a pretty deep historical push for ANY tradable instrument. Unless the EURUSD is planning on busting 17 years worth of history by going through $1.4535, then it now MUST stall and begin a reluctant fall into its Annual Apex Short Cycle. Super Long-Term Traders/Investors need to understand these technical facts about the EURUSD and Day Traders need to understand where the source of price momentum is coming from and when that “source” of price momentum is undergoing a “state change”.

For the Day Trader:

24hr horizontal price action has commenced with the 7/25/07 move for the next several months, making channel and range more predictive, but not a slam dunk as the upside bias from a continuation of the Annual upside cycle of 2006, was pretty darn strong. So, expect contiguous 24hr bars (day trades) to give the appearance of long-trend continuation at times (over the next couple of weeks), with the understanding that genuine Annual “state changes” in momentum typically require "time" to formulate the Apex as opposed to Daily, Weekly and Monthly “state changes”. You won't be able to look back and see the Annual Apex state change on your charts until it finishes its cycle. Mark this date on your calendar and check back in 2008 at about the same time and you will clearly see the Apex being described here, today. I did this same kind of post in 2006, targeting above the 3000 level when the price was nearer to the 1800 level. Back then, some thought the “trend” would continue sending the EURUSD down to near the 1000 level or lower. Now, we can look back and see that the 2006 Annual Apex Long Cycle (AALC) was indeed correctly noted. Rest assured - you are looking at yet another Annual Apex Cycle in the making right now.

Over the next several months, expect to see both Short and Long Day Trading opportunities. Short 24hr bar opportunities coming from strong 24 hour long side triggers (in other words, previous session high's being taken out should provide for good short side opportunities under the "right conditions" for the short-term Day Trader as the EURUSD’s Annual energy gets converted from Long bias to Short bias.) Pure Day Traders should thrive in this environment. Long 24hr bar opportunities coming from strong 24 hour short side triggers that happen mid to late week. However, be careful on any long side hold while using small’ish stops as the Annual energy state change in the EURUSD begins to turn south over the next few to several months. Pure Trend Traders, won’t like this environment all that much and many will find themselves falling behind the power-curve over the next couple of months, or taking in very small profits from poorly timed entries – so heed the warning.

Long Term Outlook Target? 3100'ish. Timeframe? Who cares - if you are a super-long term "trader/investor", but I would guestimate 2-6 months with a serious possibility of extending well through the initial first quarter of 2008, Unless the EURUSD decides to break 17 years worth of history. Possible? Yes. Probable? No.

So, if I were in the market with say…oh… a cool $271 million right now divided into several smaller trades at various cost basis levels, I’d be Short the EURUSD right now with a flexible 100 pip stop and looking down range into 2008, feeling pretty darn happy about the decision.

As promised two years ago, I’ll post my Annual Outlook, direction, justification, and thoughts.

** Post/Post Notes:

1) No. Not posting daily - only fulfilling promise to post Annual Outlook. I don't have time for daily posting on any forum. If this board is here in 2008, I'll post No. 4 at that time when my system gives its Annual signal.

2) Adding potential Annual Apex Short Cycle bottom at $1.1809 for 2007/2008, to this post.

Not very likely and not particularly of any concern to the way I trade (Day Trader), but it is part of my model for very long range trading in the EURUSD. Probability on 1809? Extremely low, but who cares from the current price levels - direction and timing is all one needs when trading these extremely prolonged bars of data. If you have enough capital in the market, you simply pick-up several hundred pips a year, then go home - not much else matters in super long term trading/investing. Again, not my cup of tea for now (it will be down the road a bit) - but I promised my annual report.

You Annual Traders sure do have an easy time of it.

I see your reasoning behind a long entry. The technicals are looking pretty ripe with the former resistance level of 1.3685 offering a very attractive entry level.

However, I don't agree with the hierarchy you assigned to existing dollar-side and euro-side event risk. Perhaps most of this stems from my belief that the US dollar is considerably oversold (whether the dollar index puts in a bottom at 80.00 or 72.65). I know there are long-term variables like central bank diversification, steady current account deficits and a bleak budget deficit outlook; but I don't think these factors should spell the end of the most liquid currency attached to the world's largest and most wealthy economy.

Since I'm looking for big triggers for dollar buying, my immediate attention is on Friday's GDP report. There is a lot of debate surrounding this indicator and the bar is already set pretty high through the official consensus; but IMO anything above 2.0 percent should be perceived rather well. Such a considerable rebound would certainly stabilize the rate curve and keep the Fed steady while the other major central banks reach the end of their own hawkish cycles.

For me, this presents a considerable conflict between techs and fundas; so I will not try to get into a trade until Friday morning. If GDP is weak, I'll get in for a EURUSD rally to 3850 (depending on whether or not I could still get a good price i.e. 1.3685-1.3725). On the other hand, a strong growth report would only encourage me to enter a short (even if it does pop higher), which I would enter on a confirmed close below 1.3685.

Attached Images

  

IFO was weaker as expected but as we noted this morning M3 was hot and while its not likely to have any impact today keep an eye on that variables as that is the only thing that could expedite the rate hike process from the ECB.