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02-28-2008, 10:42 PM
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The 1.55 level is also a fibb extention from the weekly triangle on the pair, FWIW.
There must be some profit taking in this pair soon and i'm aside, profits in hand until retraces.
Cheers,
CanOz
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02-29-2008, 01:21 AM
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Join Date: May 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by American Trader
As the EUR/USD begins its pullback it would be a great opportunity to establish long positions. This pair's rally is going higher. Probably to at least 1.5500. A good support level for the this near term correction should be around the 1.5000 level. Any dips in this pair should be bought.
The dollar has not completed a five wave decline, however it has made a new low so the decline is incomplete. Inversely, the EUR/USD's rally is incomplete.
American-T
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138.2% extension of 0.8560-1.3666 is 1.5616. 1.6822 is the 161.8%
A. |
02-29-2008, 03:00 AM
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Join Date: Feb 2008
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Hi every one,
all of above post are mentioning long term, but today is week end today may be some profit taking could seen on end of europ and american secsion. it think 1.5280 good for shot atamp,
what you guys think.
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02-29-2008, 03:51 AM
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Good day everyone.
Despite being bearish on the dollar the divergence signs on the hourly chart are obvious. Furthermore, its ultimo and Friday. So, no time to sell the buck now. I am looking for retracement towards 1,5050 and eventually 1,4930.
Great prices to sell again, because whenever Bernanke hits the wires the dollar goes down. And he is to speak many times more in the future.
The dollar will go down eventually. I am looking for 1,55-1,60 next month.
All the best, nice weekend!
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02-29-2008, 04:14 AM
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Options market indicating good interest in buying 6 mo Eur call Usd puts strike 1.73 which indicates large markets are giving up on the USD
Those options are cheap at the moment and it seems bets are for higher levels in 3Q 2008 which could be supported by no sign of US economy recovery neither the highly expected ECB cuts to start by mid year
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02-29-2008, 05:42 AM
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Regarding JPY
The JPY is massively undervalued and with the high CPI data there is no way the BOJ would want to intervene. Most central banks have learned that the USD should never be held in the long run and it is best for all of them to diversify out this piece of paper. Even the great Warren Buffet has been saying for years that the USD will decline over the long haul and with even the chairman offering no support for this currency why should any of us hold it. No point trying to pick a bottom in the USD, it is like standing in front of the freight train, get out while you still can.
The JPY should test 100 in coming sessions and any rally should be viewed as a buying opportunity of the JPY.
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02-29-2008, 06:30 AM
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Posts: 358
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Quote:
Originally Posted by profitpips23
The JPY is massively undervalued and with the high CPI data there is no way the BOJ would want to intervene. Most central banks have learned that the USD should never be held in the long run and it is best for all of them to diversify out this piece of paper. Even the great Warren Buffet has been saying for years that the USD will decline over the long haul and with even the chairman offering no support for this currency why should any of us hold it. No point trying to pick a bottom in the USD, it is like standing in front of the freight train, get out while you still can.
The JPY should test 100 in coming sessions and any rally should be viewed as a buying opportunity of the JPY.
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I love when the sentiment gets this one sided! All we need now is the Economist cover! If some of you were trading back in December of 2004 when the Euro hit it's all time (then) high of 1.36 and change, you'll notice the uncanny similarity starting to surface.
Just remember I said this 
Last edited by Ivanovich; 02-29-2008 at 06:37 AM..
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02-29-2008, 06:37 AM
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Technical Trader
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 1,908
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for a forex trader it is really hard not to have a peek even if on vacation.....
since wifey doesnot know it is all good...
cannot stop thinking that my euppy hit 158.10........ if only i had kept my 800k shorts intact. but was only able grab 30 pips overall.....
5225 initial tgt on fiber also met......... but was not in it as well..
will stay discipline and not trade for a week.....
yen did break and stayed below 106.77 and managed intial tgt of 105.70 and better at 105.20, even surpassed and now looking formidable knocking below 104.....
technically this drop could extend to 103.33 followed by 102.66.....
yen shows alot of supp around 102.22-66 and 102.44 or close to it provoke the much needed bounce................back to 106.30.....
have only entered long order at 102,55 and 102.33 for yen with avg 2-300 pips limit.......
GL all and happy trading to come...............
__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
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02-29-2008, 07:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ivanovich
LOL!
Don't think so.
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1.90 is a bit too much fantasy...
but 1.65 could be a bottom, I keep my longs in play...
I firmly believe that we gonna test 1.60
Greetz |
02-29-2008, 10:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ricardo
1.90 is a bit too much fantasy...
but 1.65 could be a bottom, I keep my longs in play...
I firmly believe that we gonna test 1.60
Greetz
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People didn't think that GBP/US woud hit 2.1100 either but it did! Same can be said for $100 Oil.
The way the US is going right now.. Oil over $100 and the Equity Markets and Banks all shot to %$@!. These things take time to fix. It is going to take years for this to correct itself. This isn't like the US just reported a "Bad Quarter" and we will recover next quarter. Gas over $3.00 a gallon hurts everyones "Excess spending". If the Politicians don't get the downward spiral stopped.. The US could be in the same position as Japan. .5% interest and then the US is a Carry pair. I don't like trading against my own currency but, I am a trader and against the US is where the money is at right now. So... I am Long Eur/GBP/NZD/ and AUD. I"m short CHF and Yen. Let the good times roll and my trading account increase!
(Stepping off of soap box)
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02-29-2008, 10:52 AM
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 358
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Quote:
Originally Posted by djindyfx
People didn't think that GBP/US woud hit 2.1100 either but it did! Same can be said for $100 Oil.
The way the US is going right now.. Oil over $100 and the Equity Markets and Banks all shot to %$@!. These things take time to fix. It is going to take years for this to correct itself. This isn't like the US just reported a "Bad Quarter" and we will recover next quarter. Gas over $3.00 a gallon hurts everyones "Excess spending". If the Politicians don't get the downward spiral stopped.. The US could be in the same position as Japan. .5% interest and then the US is a Carry pair. I don't like trading against my own currency but, I am a trader and against the US is where the money is at right now. So... I am Long Eur/GBP/NZD/ and AUD. I"m short CHF and Yen. Let the good times roll and my trading account increase!
(Stepping off of soap box)
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Please state your Euro positions, if you would be so kind.
Last edited by Ivanovich; 02-29-2008 at 10:55 AM..
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02-29-2008, 11:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gizmo
Still short here too. Will add another and definitely one if we hit 1.50.
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Well I did add one short at 1.50500 and yesterday another at 1.5220. Now it is time to sit and go for the ride. |
02-29-2008, 11:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ivanovich
Please state your Euro positions, if you would be so kind.
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Ivanovich.. I have no open positions in the Eur right now. I took profits after I rode the Up on Wednesday. Hit the top and took a short for a retrace that I was able to get 30 pips out of. I did not get back in the Eur yesterday becuase I took a Yen short at 105.91 (Still open) and then a GBP/NZD Long this morning (Still Open) at 2.4447. I love the Hedging Feature. I can be long and short in 2 different Pairs and make money both ways. These 2 trades presented more profit potential than the stall out in the EUR Today.
I'm waiting for the Retrace in the EUR and then I will hop back on the Eur/US carry trade ride. Now that the US eased I don't lose interest on my open positions anymore Gotta Love that! |
02-29-2008, 11:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by djindyfx
Ivanovich.. I have no open positions in the Eur right now. I took profits after I rode the Up on Wednesday. Hit the top and took a short for a retrace that I was able to get 30 pips out of. I did not get back in the Eur yesterday becuase I took a Yen short at 105.91 (Still open) and then a GBP/NZD Long this morning (Still Open) at 2.4447. I love the Hedging Feature. I can be long and short in 2 different Pairs and make money both ways. These 2 trades presented more profit potential than the stall out in the EUR Today.
I'm waiting for the Retrace in the EUR and then I will hop back on the Eur/US carry trade ride. Now that the US eased I don't lose interest on my open positions anymore Gotta Love that! |
My apologies. When you had said "I am Long Eur/GBP/NZD/ and AUD" I thought that meant you were long EUR. I must have misunderstood.  |
02-29-2008, 11:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ivanovich
I love when the sentiment gets this one sided! All we need now is the Economist cover! If some of you were trading back in December of 2004 when the Euro hit it's all time (then) high of 1.36 and change, you'll notice the uncanny similarity starting to surface.
Just remember I said this |
You know.. You are right Ivanovich... What if Eur/US is in the middle of formaing a Head and shoulders right now. This leg up would be the Head with Solid support @1.4400. The Gbp/JPy formed a similar pattern before the bottom fell out on it. It hit 250.00 and then Striaght down. I'll watch the FXCM SSI readings and wait for it to say that everyone is Long.. Then I will take my short.. Maybe 1.9000 in EUR in 2010? |
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