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  #3211 (permalink)  
Old 02-29-2008, 10:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arodriguez View Post
138.2% extension of 0.8560-1.3666 is 1.5616. 1.6822 is the 161.8%

A.
Thanks for the info, I did not calculate that 1.5616 level. I'll be watching for a medium term top around the mid 1.50s, with a bias towards the upper half.

American-T
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  #3212 (permalink)  
Old 02-29-2008, 10:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ivanovich View Post
My apologies. When you had said "I am Long Eur/GBP/NZD/ and AUD" I thought that meant you were long EUR. I must have misunderstood.
I'm Long in Spirit; even if I'm not long in Physical Positions
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  #3213 (permalink)  
Old 02-29-2008, 11:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Black.day View Post
SL at b/e (it's not the time to be a hero)
Undeterred by price hitting my SL, I'm back in short at 1.52, holding over the weekend and probably beyond.
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  #3214 (permalink)  
Old 02-29-2008, 01:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ricardo View Post
1.90 is a bit too much fantasy...

but 1.65 could be a bottom, I keep my longs in play...

I firmly believe that we gonna test 1.60

Greetz
hi Ricardo, you seem to know what youre doing, I am a rookie and i was using the technical analyzer for the firrst week which was just this past week, it worked perfectly because the EUR USD keep going on up, but today (friday) it keeps on changing having me losing money....can you tell me your strategy and what do you use? As for everybody else, please reply to me, i really need you guys help, thank you
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  #3215 (permalink)  
Old 02-29-2008, 02:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by djindyfx View Post
You know.. You are right Ivanovich... What if Eur/US is in the middle of formaing a Head and shoulders right now. This leg up would be the Head with Solid support @1.4400. The Gbp/JPy formed a similar pattern before the bottom fell out on it. It hit 250.00 and then Striaght down. I'll watch the FXCM SSI readings and wait for it to say that everyone is Long.. Then I will take my short.. Maybe 1.9000 in EUR in 2010?
hi djindyfx, i see you use the ssi readings....can you tell me how to use it? i know where to find it, but not sure what to do? should i just follow the signals thats it tells me, for eg: bullish, bearish....anyone else that wanna give me a little strategy expecially with the eur usd please reply, thank you
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  #3216 (permalink)  
Old 02-29-2008, 03:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Guilder View Post
Good day everyone.

Despite being bearish on the dollar the divergence signs on the hourly chart are obvious. Furthermore, its ultimo and Friday. So, no time to sell the buck now. I am looking for retracement towards 1,5050 and eventually 1,4930.
Great prices to sell again, because whenever Bernanke hits the wires the dollar goes down. And he is to speak many times more in the future.
The dollar will go down eventually. I am looking for 1,55-1,60 next month.
All the best, nice weekend!
hi Guilder, what strategies do you use other than just trends and news? any indicators or anything special? i would love to know any strategies that is working from anyone, thank you..
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  #3217 (permalink)  
Old 02-29-2008, 08:56 PM
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eur/usd

I`m short from 1.5175, I hope for 50 pips
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  #3218 (permalink)  
Old 02-29-2008, 10:12 PM
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hey guys, im currently using the technical analyzer as a tool to trade....what else do you guys suggest i use? also, when do you suggest i take my losses and when not to? how can u be sure? let me know what you do to be successful if u can be so kind, thank you
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  #3219 (permalink)  
Old 03-01-2008, 09:27 AM
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Faith In You

Quote:
Originally Posted by davetheeagle View Post
Well I almost got it right. I was short NZD/USD at 0.82. I did the count and found I could move my stop (if I had had one!!) to 0.8185. At the time the rate was 0.8120. However, for some reason I entered is as as 0.8165 and I was stopped out shortly after. OK not a disaster but my short would have still been running if I had entered the right amount.
Must try harder.
Dave, I have Faith in you. You did walk away with 30 pips profit banked.
I back tested what happened and posted the chart below.

If I were traiding the Hourly Chart I would not have done anything differently. You would have still been stopped out in the same place even if you were counting back 10 bars. A thrust up on 2/28 caused it to go into a Range which is letting you know that the Retrace had stopped and was not very strong on that day. The Break out method I trade would have gotten me back in at the .8110 support failure (If I were trading this pair). Then you follow it down 5 bars back. Entry at .8100. By the end of the day your stop would be at .8046 protecting 54 pips profit.

Now.. If you are more like me (which apparently you are from your statement above) who looks for entries on the Hourly but actually Trades the Daily chart then you would only be on count 2 of your stop move.
Entry at .8200. Initial stop at .8213. Use a 3 or 4 Day count back for your stop move. ( I use 4 bar for daily and 5 for hourly) I sent you a private message by the way.

Last edited by djindyfx; 07-15-2008 at 05:59 PM..
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  #3220 (permalink)  
Old 03-01-2008, 03:59 PM
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cut losses

hey guys, we all think that the eur/usd will continue to go up because of the economy, however, where should u cut your losses? -20 pips, 40, 50? where....let me know what you guys think and let me know what do you guys do, what are the good sources for trading? thank you
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  #3221 (permalink)  
Old 03-02-2008, 03:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kirkmara View Post
hi Guilder, what strategies do you use other than just trends and news? any indicators or anything special? i would love to know any strategies that is working from anyone, thank you..
Hi Kirkmara,

Trends and news, there's not much more to it.
But seriously: I do watch technicals but if they go against my 'fundamental' feeling i will not take a long/term position. Maybe a quick 20 or 30 pips or so, but nothing overnight or so.
Plus, a currency pair may look extremely bid or offered, but the next day things may have changed completely. "It always looks bid at the top" is an old-time favorite of mine. So do not to stick to your position too long and take your losses in time.
Good luck!
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Old 03-02-2008, 04:29 PM
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thank you Guilder, so do you compare technicals with long term graphs from dailyfx?....also, how do you know when to go long?
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  #3223 (permalink)  
Old 03-02-2008, 09:46 PM
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SSI Reports

Quote:
Originally Posted by kirkmara View Post
hi djindyfx, i see you use the ssi readings....can you tell me how to use it? i know where to find it, but not sure what to do? should i just follow the signals thats it tells me, for eg: bullish, bearish....anyone else that wanna give me a little strategy expecially with the eur usd please reply, thank you
Kirkmara, To be honest with you.. I don't really pay to much attention to the SSI reports. It is a contrarian report that FXCM puts out. In a way it is making fun of retail traders becuase they actually recomending everyone take the opposite of what the Retail traders are doing (Against the Hurd Trading). Example right now would be if the SSI report says the every one is Long Eur/us.. Then that would be your time to take a short. (use your system for entry). That is if you want to use the SSI report as one of your tools in your trading tool box but, let me ask you this, If you did not have the SSI report; What would you use instead?
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  #3224 (permalink)  
Old 03-02-2008, 11:00 PM
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oh no, i dont use it alone, i compare and contrast the daily fx charts, the long and short term charts, the techincal analysis and the intraday....but not just one....how about you?
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  #3225 (permalink)  
Old 03-03-2008, 12:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by djindyfx View Post
In a way it is making fun of retail traders becuase they actually recomending everyone take the opposite of what the Retail traders are doing (Against the Hurd Trading).
pfft, FX trades in an over the counter exchange. Therefore, there isn't a unified source to provide volume and open interest.
FXCM samples that sentiment based on their books and clients, its a statistical sample which is an indicative of market psychology.

An indicator like that doesn't tell you to go opposite of the horde! Your missing its point. The simple example is if you have 100 men pushing a rock for a whole week then they will be tired and that rock won't move as fast anymore or might come to a complete stop, by then 5 men pushing in the opposite direction could move that rock against all those tired 100 men.

It is a good measure of momentum, if 80% is short EUR and its decline is coming to a stop what would you really expect?
A helpful statistical indicator has nothing to do with making fun or merely betting against. And as with many indicators, its works best of its extremes one of the best contrarian indicators out there.
Its only misfortune, is that due to OTC nature of FX a big margin of error is possible.
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