Actually now I think it might be a bit late to put a new long position in. The upside potential for the pair is getting smaller, and the potential for reversal appears to be approaching soon. We're in a final small 5th wave within a larger 5th wave. So a large reversal is very near and risk is high for the longs. I would hold any existing long positions and play very cautious until at least one more thrust upward is made. I project the 1.5400 - 1.5500 area to be the reversal area, but by no means does it have to get there before it reverses heavily. So I will be watching it carefully, playing it very cautious, and definitely taking profits as it approaches/enters the reversal zone of 5400-5500. Once I see a clear sign that a reversal has occured, I will then enter large short positions and hold them for weeks.

I don't trade based on the news usually because the market reaction is very inconsistent and often illogical, but I like to use it as a speculative pivot point. Tomorrow the US has some important jobs data coming out. I can see that news marking a bottom in the dollar. But the dollar still has further to fall between now and then, so the EUR/USD will make at least on more thrust upward.

P.S. The term "SL" should mean "Stop Loss".

American-T

so you are pretty sure it might reverse at 1.54 and you may go to a short yourself....i am new i would greatly appreciate your feedback, thanks

Yes I agree, the EUR/USD rally is coming to an end. But it still has life in it for one more push. I don't rade based on specific news and the anticipated reaction because it's usually illogical and inconsistent to say the least. But I do see a lot of news coming out tomorrow that will affect the EUR/USD and I see it as a high possibility that somewhere in the midst of all the news that the dollar will make a new low, bottom, and perhaps sharply reverse immediately. This is all just pure speculation on my part. But I think we both agree, the dollar is about to bottom.

American-T

2/5/08- 9:36p cst (chicago standard time)

Additional thanks to the regulars...merican trader, ivano, striker, and moderators.

Finally getting risk management and "stick to the plan" through my thick skull. It's turning out that combining the two = $. Really having a good time. Owe some of that fun to the regular posters moders.

Long 2/29 at .5206, SL @ .5144, TP @ .5338 (my real job gets in the way so I want to stay on the conservative side, grrrr). I have a practice acct, snowboard vacation was cancelled so i took 3 days off last week to trade and stare at the screen all day (roomate accused me of starting at the screen too long and rambling about forex) and experienced nice gains in eurusd, audusd, and especically in audnzd (long @ .1486, riding this pretty wave 3). Really fun vacation.

Is striker on vacation? His (i think striker is a "his") insight at this "interesting" Eurusd time would be key. Patience is a virtue is an understatement!

Happy trading (so far)

Carthage, I hope the subway doesn't cost $1.00 or my analysis needs work! Thanks for your thoughts as well. What is the point of people posting after the fact? Your wallet is still the same size either way. Trades in the black are more fun than wasting time with trickery. anyway, till next time folks...

TED

-The more you stir it, the more it stinks

$ is about to bottom??

sorry, but much more upside potential...

maybe not short term...end of year possibly 1.65

i aggree that soon sharp reversal will happen...

bu i do NOT aggree that the $ is bottoming...

coming weeks will be jumpy ;-)

at least, my guess

greetZ

As Gold seems to be heading to 1000 (currently 990) then it's possible for a large correction, could this tie in with EURUSD having a similar correction. Whether it's a bottom or correction it seems as though it's going to occur soon, could it be that most traders are waiting for it and will sell heavily and make it accelerate into a quick drop?
I closed all longs last night as I didn't want to sleep on them but have a small long open this morning targetting 1.54 - just about to move my Stop Loss (SL) to break even.

Mr. American-T, let me see your waves... post a chart if possible. thanks

A.

Well back and back to doing whats seem best and the only thing that seems fit on the equation.......... trading Forex...........
i guess i'm well rested and looking forward to start trading starting offocurse the NFP........ which just happens to be my favorite news event to trade..

i almost came close to picking the yen longs but came shy few pips........
nevertheless, there's always next trade waiting at the corner...........

have taken the order on yen out and will start off fresh tomorrow........

__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

hi,
may i ask is yr signal of euro start coming down happening?
tks. panda eyes

I think there is no need to alter the outlook.
Euro rallied clearly and simply in five waves. May you double check my count?

However, the fifth wave does not seem to have ended up here, it is still too small. Also from time projection view, I think it has further to go.

Actually, I measured wave 1 as approx. 300 pips, and wave 3 as approx 600 pips. If you count wave 5 from 1.5144 to 1.5347 thats 200 pips.

I think we are in wave iii of 5 now. From 1.5144 wave 1 could have ended at 1.5300 (150 pips) price corrected after that (wave ii? ) then it rallied from 1.5250 almost (100 pips) 1.5347 the rally high.

So we are in iii of 5 or 5 of 5. But most likely we are still in iii of 5.

Either way, its definately time to book long profits. There is really no way to know when wave 5 can end. Could be sub 1.53 or sub 1.54

My own favorite though is higher prices towards the mid of 1.54, probably 1.5450.

Anyone agree / disagree? Share with me please.

Attached Images

 

1,5350.....Its not really spiking, in my view. It just looks bid. And after Trichet and oil at 105 there's still not many reasons to buy dollars. As said, I am a EUR bull waiting to sell it, so i am in trouble!
I'll just wait and see.
Meanwhile, cable through 2.00. There's more in store there.
Good luck.

Holding on to my long and keep raising my target higher, as we stand right now looking at 1.5470 as the new re-tracement point for a correction, 1.5370 held so far which initially was my target.
1/3 of my position got limit and still holding on to the rest. There is more room for cable to rally and I don't think that would leave EUR behind.
around 1.64 was my end of year and mid year around 1.54, market seems planing to move at a faster pace than expected.


Anyways on the intra-day we are at extremes with some divergences booking some profit is never a bad idea.

I just exited all my short dollar positions (inc. EUR/USD of course) except my heavy short in USD/JPY (currently 103.24). That one still has to make a new low beneath 102.60 before I start taking profits. The EUR/USD rally is a 5th wave of a 5th and it looks to have hit a bit of wall, looks exhausted, and has been weakening overall the past few days. I exited all my long positions to finish a nice trade run from the 1.4400 area to 1.5340. It may still have further to go, but I'm not interested in catching an absolute top. Right now it seems the risk of a heavy reversal and large decline is much greater than any potential rally extension I can see.

It's time now to start looking for a signal to start becoming short. This pair might make its way back to the low 1.4400s in a large 4th wave correction as the dollar undergoes an across the board multi-week rally.

But for now, I'm on the sidelines.

American-T

My compliments for your view, and patience. I will never make a 900 pip rally.
Enjoy the break.

American-T. Indeed. this is how I read the chart too. I call it five on five. It has always been a bad alert before a reversal begins.

I have a question for you though.
I am very bearish Euro/Yen (Similar to USDJPY). I know USDJPY is entering a very fast decline phase. But this is tough. how can USDJPY make it to 100 if euro is about to go down about 500-600 pips?

I am talking that GBP is topping, euro is topping as well..so dollar will gain from both probably soon. How will it lose to jpy?

I can't find any explaination to this other than some credit crunch and risk aversion that hit the markets hard and certainly jpy and chf would benefit from this, and the dollar versus high yielders.

I have tried to make the count in some sort that usdjpy will bottom 101-102 but no way, it is so clear it declined in five waves, and corrected in expanded flat at medium term resistance 108.60, rejection from there opens really low targets.

Just would love to hear your thoughts as well.