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03-06-2008, 06:07 PM
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American-T.
I have been FX trading for a couple years now with some success. Roughly how long do you think it will take me to get a good grasp of EW.
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03-06-2008, 06:37 PM
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EUR/USD top
Looking at the chart. Where would you put a short sell order?
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03-06-2008, 08:40 PM
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Damn the Torpedoes
Quote:
Originally Posted by carthage
We seem headed toward the higher end of this range (close at 1.5319-1.5508). A 4-hour TD trend line aims for 155.18 intraday, but these large moves are sometimes left suspended without being met until quite a bit further on. I also have my own 8 hour trend line at 1.5476 now and rising 20 pips/day. But this all seems a little too neat. So we'll wait until Friday March 7 and see where we are.
Disclaimer:My advice and $2.00 will get you on the subway.
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Thursday 8:29 pm EST.....Well I may be the first ship into Mobile Bay, but here goes a toe into those warm Gulf waters (or maybe a knee). LMT orders using 1/3 risk capital sell at 1.5390, sell 1/3 at 1.5510......SL 1.5750....final targets TBD (1.40 ish). If this set of trades goes longer than 3 months will exit before targets hit. Last 1/3 to be sold by 3/13/08 and will lower stops then.
BTW, I'm feeling like Bill Evans, so please feel free to respond.
Disclaimer:My advice and $2.00 will get you on the subway.
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03-07-2008, 04:44 AM
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An observation- Measured weighted indexes now show some commonalities when the EURO was first introduced.
FYI- indexes, prices. The price of a gallon of milk in Germany in August 2007 was $5.65/gal. With inflation pounding on the door and the current exchange rates, it has now reached an all time high of $7.16(!) Actual figure from REWE supermarkert.
The iPod index shows an iPod now runs $230.85 in Germany, France and Italy whereas the price in the US is $149.99. Actual figure from Media Markt electronics.
The BigMac index shows a BigMac averages $6.11 in Germany, $6.17 in France and $6.31 in Italy. Average price in the US, $3.69.
But there is still room for the EURUSD to run up according to all technicals and general sentiment. TA shows $1.63 so I say, why not? Milk will then only cost $7.52... keep on truckin'. Fundamentals mean absolutely zilch. Keep in mind, GDP and ONLR or US and EU are and have been very similar.
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03-07-2008, 04:46 AM
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RSI is 83+ I do not think euro can make it to 1.63 in the fifth wave. It's nearly "not possible" But let us see what happens.
Good luck. I aim at shorts around 1.55 for swing entry.
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03-07-2008, 04:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by American Trader
Extended 5th is possible however I feel it's unlikely. Momentum is really struggling and other dollar pairs show signs of exhaustion too.
The best place for EW in my opinion is Elliott Wave International. FXCM also has some free info on their news page. Jaime Saettele is their EW analyst and he's usually very friendly and helpful on EW questions in their Elliott Wave forum.
In my opinion, this theory is a superior analysis tool that overshadows anything else I've ever seen. It's also the most complicated.
American-T
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Thanks alot for your reply. And thanks to Wave Fan too.
USD still feels offered, depite Fisher talking about being worried about price expectations. And despite all overbought readings.
It feels like we will see a higher top one of these days. Maybe 1,5550 or so. We'll see what NFP brings later today. Good luck |
03-07-2008, 05:24 AM
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Guilder 
We will not catch the exact top, but we will still catch it early using elliott waves 
Just give it time to breath and extend to the upside. When price starts to decline in impulsive way, it will spell itself.
Yes I agree, with NFP possibly coming in bad, eur/usd may strike to 1.55.
This is my wave count on the euro/dollar rally. It appears that we are in a wave iii of 5 so there are still chances for 1.55/1.56 in wave v of 5 and its last wave anyway.
fifth waves can be weak, and small but this is not a reason to call a top here.
Notice the strongest wave ever was wave 3 of 3. Something that we look for always
My personal opinion is that we are in wave iii of 5 and that wave 5 can extend 100-200 pips more.
Wave 1 300 pips distance approx
Wave 3 600 pips distance approx
until now wave 5 is about 300 pips.
But the wave structure on hourly suggest one more impulse. |
03-07-2008, 06:09 AM
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This Friday feels different, as has been somewhat predictable so far that end of week is profit taking time and USD would put up a fight.
It just doesn't seem to be the case, a lot of people are getting killed out there and from what I heard more stops on the topside and they can be easily exploited.
Sure enough indicators don't support it but then its all about fear and greed.
just booked more profit on EUR standing with half a position running waiting on how this plays out. might chase an initial lower reaction after figures with buying , but wait out a higher jump reaction and evaluate the situation.
GL
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03-07-2008, 06:40 AM
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I think all world WILL have new standart FOREIGN EXchanges. IF this NFP really going WORSe.
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03-07-2008, 07:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaveFan
Guilder
We will not catch the exact top, but we will still catch it early using elliott waves
Just give it time to breath and extend to the upside. When price starts to decline in impulsive way, it will spell itself.
Yes I agree, with NFP possibly coming in bad, eur/usd may strike to 1.55.
This is my wave count on the euro/dollar rally. It appears that we are in a wave iii of 5 so there are still chances for 1.55/1.56 in wave v of 5 and its last wave anyway.
fifth waves can be weak, and small but this is not a reason to call a top here.
Notice the strongest wave ever was wave 3 of 3. Something that we look for always
My personal opinion is that we are in wave iii of 5 and that wave 5 can extend 100-200 pips more.
Wave 1 300 pips distance approx
Wave 3 600 pips distance approx
until now wave 5 is about 300 pips.
But the wave structure on hourly suggest one more impulse. |
Much appreciated, Wave Fan! Looking back, it's soooo easy.
It's obvious Mr. Elliot did a good job.
Lots of homework to do on this, from my part.
During my professional career I was trading for the very short term, only caring about the next 10 or 20 pips. Thats why I never got into this longer term technical tool.
Applying EW on the daily I get something like 12 waves, starting at Nov 05. So thats poss too...? Or was the cycle broken during the zig-zag at the end of 2007?
I could ask many more questions, but I dont wanna take too much of your time. I'll look into it myself as well, ofcourse.
Happy Hunting!
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03-07-2008, 08:08 AM
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This page best answers your question:
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/chartin...557230156.html
Euro rallied in 15 waves, and last wave being from a triangle, a terminal pattern. Could be true, but daily charts are for more long term, n investors.
The hourly count is more clear actually since we can identify the euro rally in five waves.
Good luck, Payrolls on the line now.. |
03-07-2008, 10:05 AM
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Finally, EUR USD is heading lower. A bit. Currently 1,5340. There might be some demand at these levels, and I wonder if this is the long awaited retracement. Fundamentally, still not too many reasons to buy dollars.
Volatile it is, and I think I call it a day. And a weekend!
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03-07-2008, 10:14 AM
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Actually, EURUSD is a turtle mover. If you can trade EURJPY, you'd make so many pips today ahead of the data, and after the data. The cross is so volatile.
Until we see five waves down in eurusd its correction. ~ my 2cents
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03-07-2008, 10:27 AM
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I think this may be the reversal.
The 1.5450 area was the target price, and that was reached today. Also, the 30 min chart was showing divergence between the 1.5459 high and the previous high just below that. This is the first divergence I was able to find in a long long time.
Any thoughts? Am I on the right track or way off the mark?
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03-07-2008, 10:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by firefighterEMT
I think this may be the reversal.
The 1.5450 area was the target price, and that was reached today. Also, the 30 min chart was showing divergence between the 1.5459 high and the previous high just below that. This is the first divergence I was able to find in a long long time.
Any thoughts? Am I on the right track or way off the mark?
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Ur right just shy of 1.55 psychological ...etc resistance and indeed the divergence is clear all over many indicators. |
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