Good question. It really all depends on your dedication and time you invest in learning it. You can get the basics down and trade with some assistance in just a few weeks probably. I think it's best to get the basics mastered, and then trade modestly to learn as you go and develop your skills progressively all while constantly referring to whatever EW literature you've started with.

My first EW book that I read in detail was Applying Elliott Wave Theory Profitably by Steven W. Poser. I actually photocopied and highlighted key elements in the book and put them in a binder with document protectors. I am constantly referring to and updating this binder. My second book I read through fairly quickly was Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior by A. J. Frost, Robert R., Jr. Prechter, and Charles J. Collins. I feel anyone who's serious about trading based on EW should read at least one of those books.

Hope that helps.

American-T

I see by your chart that you have a fairly aggressive 5th wave developing. Do you have a support level that is critical to the continued bullish push you're counting? 5300? 5140? I'm watching the small time frame charts carefully for a 5 wave decline, but I'd like it to break 5140 with an impulse wave to gain confidence that a top is in. But right now, the decline from 5460 looks pretty impulsive. (right now it's at 5333)

Any thoughts?

American-T

Eur/Usd is ending the day slightly lower it seems.
it could not hold 1,54.
Does anybody think that a new attack at 1,54 will be made on Monday?

I am still standing sidelines in the market, looking for the next opportunity.

There is no sign of a top yet, but if you look at 4hr charts in eur/usd, This is the most impulsive candle in a while, but certainly we need to wait next week to see price behaviour.

The critical support is a wave end at 1.5144 also a bottom thats so recent on dailies

Below 1.5144 would be very negative. I am probably not waiting for that break to get short.

I will keep an eye on cable more, and usdjpy for more attractive opportunities.

Right now, eur/usd is a high risk trade.

There are so many here that trade it from the technical side only. I find that difficult. I am not saying you're wrong or so, dont get me wrong. But fundamentals matters! On the other hand: maybe I read too much..... Oil up ! Stocks down ! CDS up ! How does all that fit into my gut-feeling?
Right now a majority of the forum is looking to buy dollars for a move towards 1.44 or so. From a technical point of view that could be perfectly achievable, but I wonder what sort of news we would need to put this move into motion. I still prefer the euro over the dollar, but no worries.... If 1.5144 breaks I'll join the club and buy the buck.
Nice weekend.
p.s. who is Bill Evans?

hi guys i have sell on 1.5348 what do u think i have to do in monday ?

i have sell on 1.5348 what do u thinks guy about it ???

Guilder,

It's market nature. It moves in cycles and waves, and this method worked over tens of years.

I am not saying to ignore the weak dollar fundamentals, but on the other hand a sharp correction is due in EUR/USD, and it's not only Elliott Wave, overbought readings suggest this as well.

You ask a very good question. How will people turn to USD bulls like that?
My answer is that the correction will be very choppy, I mean the price will eventually drop to 1.40 zone but you won't notice it until it has happened. Seriously, if you open your chart, and zoom out to max you will know without any prior elliott wave knowledge what moves are impulsive and what moves are corrective.

Corrections are boring, they take long time, and they are very choppy. That's why I even do not see the eur/usd as a perfect trade comparing to eur/jpy or usd/jpy.

See this chart of eurusd please.

The market has been going since 2005 in a sharp impulsive way.. it even rarely retrace to its yearly trendline

See my blue corrective lines, even if (and thats expected) dropped to 1.4 it won't alter the severe uptrendline.

Afterall, I do not like getting in corrective trades as they are choppy. But the GBPUSD short coming is an impulsive one I think, because the long term of GBPUSD is bearish, unlike EURUSD.

See the other chart of GBPUSD.
I really think a high probability short trade will unfold itself next weeks, and it will be a sharp reversal to downside, comparing to that EUR/USD.

and I will prefer GBPUSD to be honest due to the fact that it declined in five waves, so the bearish potential is very great and we are entering a reversal zone quickly.

"If the wave count is wrong excuse me, I am still learning.. getting my way from all experts here"

According to this particular view cable may reverse and complete a big C wave in the 2.0250/2.0460 and resume its downtrend.

It does not make sense that cable is mainly in a downtrend, but elliott waves+fib+zooming out that chart tells we are definately in a downtrend.

Thanks--Happy Weekend

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WaveFan,

Thanks again for your explanation, and your charts. I will work my way into techs, and American Trader will be pleased to read that I ordered one of the books on Elliott waves that he recommended.
Untill then I will have to do with my gut-feeling and some indicators like RSI and Stochastics. So far I managed, but there is always room for improvement!

On your bearish view on GBP USD: EUR GBP looks overbought and ready for a nice correction. So this would mean that EUR USD goes down fast. That fits, doesn't it?
Meanwhile, its 00.30 Saturday morning. Time to go.
Its been a pleasure. Enjoy the break.
Bye.

Hi all,
This is my first post on this forum, but I have been a dedicated reader for some months.
The information freely given is priceless and I thank you all for that.
I have been a part timer for over two years now have lost big and gained big but that is the way it goes.
I have been a EUR bull from November 2007 and have been able to read your comments , charts and other data and apply my own strategies to turn Us$300 in November 2007 to US3,000 end of trading last night 7/3/2008.
Now to my point: I also believe the Euro is in for a big correction to around mid to low 40’S but I believe it will have one more run at 1.5500 and even hit 1.5570 this month and start to fall by April.
I also believe that once the correction is done the Euro will once again go through the 1.5500 mark.
I use both Technical and fundamental analysis as I found this to be of benefit when the Technical analysis may point to a drop but the fundamental component reads that it's goiong up due words or action by external influences.
And it is fundamental component I believe will send the Euro up first and then it will drop.
Please remember this is just my thoughts and I may be completely wrong

The short term bond yields are nearly 1.5% lower than the Fed rates. This means the market has already decided what the interest rate needs to be. The Fed may be cutting rate by the largest amount (150 bps) in recent history, which could rocket the high yield currencies to unexplored territories.

The Fed meeting is on the 18th. All anti-dollar currencies might march upwards until 18th, adjusting for the anticipated rate cut. Chances of a corrective pullback before the rate cut is low. Other central banks have not signaled any rate cut in the short term. Even if any of them cuts by a quarter of a point, the differential is still very large. Dollar is likely to remain crushed until summer, when the US economic downturn starts hitting home in other countries. At that point smaller nations are more vulnerable to the spreading recession and their currencies will get hit first before EUR, which could be used as an advance signal for a dollar rally against EUR.

Don't be surprised by a co-ordinated effort this spring on the part of central bankers to stop what has become a disorderly drop of the US dollar. No central banker in the world wants to see the bottom drop out of the US dollar. In situations like this in years past, central bankers have orchestrated effective action, in part to burn speculators who in the bankers' view are exacerbating a disorderly decline.

The FED has adopted new strategies to counter the US credit crunch. It has a mandate to provide price stability, which is the greatest threat to the US economy longer term. A few market gurus have stated that some Fed insiders are alarmed that US inflation has jumped towards 5% and they're forecasting that the Fed may signal that its cut on March 18 will be its last cut in this cycle. As well, after the next cut, the Fed has little room left to cut. At lower yields, the USD would be in danger of becoming a source of funds for the carry trade, which could both accelerate dollar weakness and US inflation... perhaps precipitating US$150 oil and US$1500 gold by summer. The Fed cannot lead the US down that path.

i have sell on 1.5348 do u think i have to wait or at mondy opening close it ?100

I just listened to Teri's insightful Friday DailyFx podcast. It describes how Fed member Mishkin is publishing a paper stating that the falling dollar is not causing commodity inflation. If you believe this, I have a tower for sale in Paris for a few million Euros. The Fed is completely ignorant of the deleterious effects on the US economy of inflation caused in part by a declining dollar. Every one percent decline of the dollar equals a one percent rise in the cost of oil. As a net importer, a lower valued dollar results in a lower pruchasing power and higher prices. The FED SHOULD NOT cut interest rates any further as this erases any potential economic gains by higher commodity prices and inflation. By injecting liquidity into the system, the Fed is far more effective at easing the concerns of a credit meltdown, and it does not cause the dollar to decline in value and create inflation. This is the policy the Fed should have pursued all along, and it would have avoided the dollar fall that is now occuring. I do not see how the dollar recovers until both the Fed and the Treasury take the necessary policy steps that make it rise in value. At this rate, the Euro will reach 1.75 by end of 2008.