hey guys, we all saw a drop on fridau for the eur/usd, where do you guys think it will go next? continue going down? or this is just the opportunity to get in? let me know , thanks

i also really curious about this....
anyone have prediction ?

guys, one questions......even though the usd is so bad and looking for recession and its seems that the dollar is on a continuous down....do you guys still think that the elliot wave pattern woks in this case? or does the actual bad news for the usd keep coming, i dont see any better for the usd anytime soon....what you guys think??

Does Anyone Know Why The Eur Usd Went Down So Much On Friday? Is It Because Its Overbought?

Actually, It's a high risk trade to get in EUR/USD now. It could be a trap before a breach of 1.55 and it could be a reversal point. My wave count suggest waiting to see what happens next.

If EURUSD showed evidence of a heavy decline, so we will look to short certainly. But from the long side, little room left either now.

are you going to post if you see any signs of strong decline?

Hi, this is my first post in here. I am a novice trader, enjoying my first profitable method over the last few months. In my view, the USD will continue to drop... However, things could get choppy since all the technical traders will believe more and more it's headed for a drop due to elliot wave stuff. When all these guys trade on it, we could see a little reversal, so the technical traders could make this a reality... but other than that, there is no other reason it will drop.

I have a trade open now, expecting to catch pips on the upswing monday. But I have set my stop loss reasonable so if the technicals win, I'll be okay.

I know personally a couple technical traders lost their accounts when gold abondoned all technical rules to launch into space, they were still trying to trade on the rules... so watch out.

I believe we are seeing a similar action here, and with most anti-dollar currencies. We will see monday though?

(I noticed over the weekend Stochastic and RSI dropped from indicating overbought to oversold. I think this is a good sign for a strong upswing on Monday... but like I said I am a novice, I may be out to lunch with this idea. Any more expert traders like to point if indicator change over the weekend really has any meaning? My past experience seems to indicate it does, but that experience is not so much...)

You are right that usd has no reasons to revocer. But it has been known that markets they can trend higher which we assume in waves, corrective waves must follow.

The Gold, I never try to trade the Gold. I think EW poorly predicts Gold moves too.

Trichet says the ECB is concerned about excessive exchange-rate moves. EUR USD drops a few points. Looks a bit offered anyway, on this slow monday. Not much to say, I will stand aside for now and wait for the bell to ring.
Good luck.

Precisely what numerous market watchers and commentators are saying now. Even some of those pundits who last year were clamoring for massive interest rate cuts now say stop. Will Bernanke continue listening to the Wall Street crowd like he seemingly has been ever since Kramer's infamous "they know nothing" outburst last August, lol ?

Time to short eur/usd. At least in the short term. This last spike came too far and too fast.In the long term the Eur will have to cut rates so the levels of the Eur are not sustainable here

Maybe you are right about shorting the EUR, but not because the ECB "will have to cut rates" please. Trichet c.s. made it clear that inflation is too high, and price stability is their goal. Your 'long term' might be 2009.
Good luck.

Just to add, the Euro cannot be sustained at the levels. It clearly damages their ability to export just as it would with any other countries currency. A long term short is in order.

Hi All,
I have been watching this forum for a while and find it very helpful. I have been trading for a couple of years and love the game. It looks as if the general opinion is that the EUR/USD is going to head south. While I don't doubt that, the question is "How Far South". I have seen projections of 1.4400/1.4000. I am not qualified to say but I find Nicole Elliot's analysis interesting. I have followed her for a long time. She is Senior Technical Analyst at Mizuho Corporate Bank. She was also the most accruate analyst in the Forex market in 2007. I have posted her comments below. The first is a daily comment and the second is her monthly forcast. Here is the link to her site. Just another tool in the box. I hope you find it useful.

http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk/TresInter...CALS/Index.htm

Daily Comment on 3/10/08: Spiking up to yet another new record high at 1.5465 Friday with several other currencies doing something similar. Expect consolidation below here today and maybe all week. Medium term dips to 1.5000/1.4900 are seen as medium term buying opportunities for persistent US dollar weakness this year. The risk may be that you cannot even give the stuff away.

Monthly Comment on 3/4/08: As expected the Euro broke above the ‘triangle’ consolidation setting a new all-time high at 1.5276. Expect a little consolidation around here early this month followed by a nudge to 1.5400, the first measured target. Note that many are still balking at paying up and that futures positions are still lower than last year’s peak, so will need re-building. Many will be dragged into the party kicking and screaming, and late, so there is a chance of hitting 1.5750 by the end of this month (or in April).
A weekly close below 1.4900 would force us to adjust.

It looks like the EUR/USD is making lower highs, but not lower lows. The 1.5311 low looks solid. What does this price action mean?