Hi.
Thank you for that web site, every little thing helps, when you are a newby.

Jagman82,
Thanks for the information, and the usefull link.
Good luck!

I think we go see 1.6 sooner than most of us think & even long term 1.65...

One thing is for sure, do NOT expect ECB to cut rates any time this year...

I hope we get some opportunities to buy again in the low 1.5's but for now its all bullish...

regards
Richard

What does this mean for the Euro- plummeting on the news. Support for the US$?
Original way of providing support- maybe the US has had enough of the falling $.

Antone know what this means- I have never come across something like this: Appears they have created a tunnel of liquidity between Europe and US so more Euros travelling to the US- 28 billion $s. Not much to move the FX market but enough to get one thinking that the Euro train is limited and may be capping ST around here.

__________________
Keep in mind that neither success nor failure is ever final. --Roger Babson (1875-1967)
YTD +5%

Liquidity should help stabalizing the market in general. Which in turn should help the dollar. So its dollar supportive, rather than Euro negative. It also shows G-10 wont just sit on their hands, but do something about the current crisis. Maybe people are scared about forex intervention too.
We briefly touched support at 1.5330 a minute ago. Maybe some rebound first towards high 1.53's. When the dust settles we'll see how this works out longer term.
Good luck.

looks like it is only temporary- Euro marching on upwards as it is !!!oversold!!!- never thought I would write that!

__________________
Keep in mind that neither success nor failure is ever final. --Roger Babson (1875-1967)
YTD +5%

The Fed is up in arms to prevent a full scale recession. The 2-year bonds are yielding just 1.5%, which means the Fed has to cut rate by as much as 150 bps to even the game. The Fed is apparently unwilling to do that record-breaking cut and instead resorting to alternate tactics to enable consumer and business spending. Thus, the odds of rate-cut in the next Fed meeting (on 18th) is reduced and even if they cut it won't be more than 0.5 to 0.75. We will know how much they will cut by looking at the short term bond yields the day before.

Naturally, this is going to be Dollar friendly. In particular if Fed signals end of rate-cuts it is going to trigger the reversal anticipated for a while.

Looks like the Fed is getting desparate. This is only a short term fix. While I am standing aside for now, I believe the Euro wil make another run for the top. The dollar is surely not any stronger. The truth is the Euro could correct another couple of hundred pips and still head back up.

2 year bonds yielding 1,5 percent does not mean Fed funds should be 1,5 percent too. It just means the yield curve is inverse. Even 5 year yields can be lower then money market rates. I agree that the next rate cut will probably be 'only' 50 bp instead of 75.

Anybody any great idea on the dollar? Have we seen the top? I think we could go to 1,5250 now, which is the first Fibo level. I still think markets need to figure out what all this means and if it is enough to calm things down.
Good luck.

Indeed, fed says "market there is no surprise 75bp cut, there will be a 50 in time but now some cheap USD fresh of the printers".

Guess free fuel gallons for households next! Best way to combat energy inflation.

You're not too far off. Apparently, one of the traders I know said he heard Bloomberg mention that the Fed was looking into stomping on the oil speculative market next.

I have no idea how they could accomplish such a thing, but there's no stopping this Fed it would seem.

Anything goes with this Fed, Moral Hazard isn't even a concern it seems.

It is easy Ivanoich- you just close down the futures and spot oil trading.

India suggested it sometime last year if oil prices spiraled out of control. You could also do this with commodities. Then purchasers would negotiate their price with the sellers of their choice.

I think the cold hard facts are hitting home to the FED- they can not continue to lower interest rates to save the banks as it is NOT working hence the action yesterday that will continue indefinately.
BB was not wrong when he said some US banks will fail- the question will be which ones?
Also it is futile to try and fight the housing market when supply clearly out weighs demand and wealth of the population is concentrated to the few. If wealth was spread out more evenly then the housing market would be more bouyant.
How many houses can an oligarch live in at the same time- people and workers need a house and those are the guys that need the help. They also need the money.
Tough job for BB- I have been stating for a long time that they should have been raising interest rates not lowering them to fight Stagflation. That is what Trichet is doing.- He is quite right to do so.
Banks will go in the US and BB will not be able to do anything about it.
Better to let the recession do it's thing like Jim Rogers said recently in an interview. You can not fight market forces or the greater economic.

__________________
Keep in mind that neither success nor failure is ever final. --Roger Babson (1875-1967)
YTD +5%

Just read his interview
http://www.cnbc.com/id/23588079

Looks like many more agree with Rogers. Dollar under pressure again, quite soon after it was so well bid yesterday. This does not bode well for the greenback. 1.55 will break. Anybody any idea about targets above 1,55 ?
1,5550 and 1,5630 ?
Good luck.