Getting close on the 2nd order at 1.5510. Will now put in 3rd and last order in on this set of trades to sell at 1.5570. If not filled today, will move to 1.5590 on Thursday at 6 am EST and if not filled will sell at market at 3 pm EST.

Disclaimer:My advice and $2.00 will get you on the subway.

It appears the Fed couldn't care less about inflation or the value of the USD. I think 1.65 could be a reasonable target as long as the ECB does not intervene. Also, rhetoric could play a huge role in keeping the EUR/USD at bay. I sometimes wonder if the "dollar crash" is a desired event. I put nothing past "the powers to be" when it comes to the "ends" justifying "the means" .. Dollar hegemony must no longer be needed.
Rogers is right. The question is; will Americans turn off the TV and realize what the Fed really is?

Well finally. 1.5500 has fallen and I believe we are in for a run to 1.5700/5750 sometime this month or next.

If you consider what Trichet said, it could be ECB involved in yesterdays move lower. Chances for intervention are very high?

I somehow missed the comments by Trichet that would have sent the EUR/USD lower. Can you send me to the article (by link)?.. many thanks!

To be honest I did call for 1.54 area shy of 1.55 a while back, assuming there would be some retracement and build up. As it seems right now Daily indicators are exhausted and so are the weekly.
Apparently the market positioning was really calling for 1.35 area making those levels stubbornly bid instead of Take Profit zone.
Where usually numbers like 1.55 are quickly reversal reactionary levels but it keeps getting attacked. The next critical level would be 1.5680 beyond that its 1.60 and 1.6463 which also are psychological levels.

I cant fathom EUR keeping the pace through all those major resistances without some pull backs to allow for corporate hedges to take place but as long as people are willing to short and longs don't become the major position holders of EUR then there is more momentum to go higher.

I reduced my position in EUR to 1/3 today and booked some more profit and closed all my EUR/GBP long few days ago.
In EUR's case I just trade on intra basis on full position based on hourly indicators as buying the dips and selling higher seems to be working out well.
And hourly indicators are exhausted today already.

surprisingly enough I feel Cable has more room to go further than EUR which doesn't seem logical from an Economic stand point. But short squeeze and market positioning could do wonders. However, EUR should go higher if Cable has the intent to.

Anyways 1.55 or 1.5550 are still reversal game no closes above so far!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Trg&refer=home

Nothing new here.. speech was on monday. He didn't have speech yesterday. You see on chat that there is some one big at 1,55. Looks similar to 1.50, when market was trying to push up. It succeded in 4th try after nearly two months.

Thanks.. I remember that now.. It wasn't taken serious because he didn't say "brutal".. LOL.. I think..

Hmmm... I don't think it will take 4 tries and 2 months to push through 1.55 .. but then again.. I should know better than to try and predict market movements.. We'll see how big they are.. (at 1.55) you could be right.. Someone could be putting their foot down.. (but I doubt it)

The EUR/USD does look like it's going to keep eeking up for a bit, perhaps to 1.56 or even 1.57. I personally have been shorting this pair since the 1.5380 area and have been, and will be, accumulating more short positions as the pair rises. This EUR/USD rally is in its last throws. I'm looking for at least a 1000 pip move to the prior 4th wave area in the mid-to-low 1.4400s.

The dollar might make new lows from here, but it's really laboring now and will continue to labor going lower as this decline is coming to an end. I'm positioning myself now for a large dollar rally.

I will post a chart later today for anyone who's interested.

American-T

I think it will break, but how long it will stay 1.5500
How you think?

I've been thinking the same but its worth mentioning that wave 5 now exceeds wave 1 and 3 from the rally from 1.3360, if wave 5 is extended, then chances are for stronger rallies to 1.60 zone.

Ofcourse this is low probability given the huge bearish divergence and overbought monthlies, dailies, but its a possibility.

What is getting me concerned is that Aussie should rally in 5th wave above 95 cents,

ok having said that usdjpy should be dragged to 98-96 zone very soon,

putting these together i can't get convinced with the idea of eur/usd decline.

basically aussie will rally only if carry trades surge, which is not the case as usdjpy should decline (or) dollar weakens more which should not be the case if eur/usd will drop heavily.

Something is wrong there, seriously.

Bottom line eurusd can't go lower, while aud/usd pushing up and usd/jpy going lower.

So one pair will prove a false analysis and spark a surprise, which one, I have no idea but I am certain.

Probably that eur/usd soon will fall down to 1.4960, probably next 1.4400

?????

With the EUR in an uptrend since Jan/2000/2001 and only a dip in 2005 since, its highly unlikely a down trend is near unless near means 2 years from now. As I write EUR is heading north to 166 at 155.70. The Saudis are buying it up and Asia to offset oil prices. Unless oil tanks below $40 a barrel the EUR should climb. Look at a weekly chart back to 2000 when oil started to climb. There is a direct correlation to oil prices and the EUR. Even before 2000 when the EUR was falling it was also off the highs of oil that continued to trend down. In 2000 Crude bottomed and the new trend in OIL and the EUR started in the direction were in. A look at futures oil prices for April and AUG may lead an incite as to the EUR,s plight or is that flight! I see no other economic reason for a 160 Eur? I need to spend more time trying to calculate what moves each increment of 5 Crude points makes pips in the EUR? That would be an interesting gage I think. This is my own observation look for your self. I think Ill set some Long EUR aside on a dip and concentrate on the spreads in correlation to crude fluctuations.

The only way that interest rate cuts may be helpful is if all of the major nations(ECB, SNB, US Fed) take action jointly as was done in the Asian crisis in the 1990s. The Fed's policy of loose money was a very proportional cause for the subprime mess. Why is the Fed repeating the same mistake again by lowering interest rates without any joint action with the ECB and others? Its actions are destroying the dollar. A barell of oil costs ca. 66 Eur, but it costs Americans much more ca. $103. Jim Rogers is correct, Bernanke needs to resign for having allowed the destruction of the US dollar. The US needs a Volcker whom will fight inflation and defend the nation's purchasing power with a factual strong dollar policy; otherwise, it is time to close down the Federal Reserve system as Jim Rogers states.

I think you are a brave man, American Trader. Right now the only thing thats in the dollars favour is the 5th wave that must have come to an end. Anything else is dollar bearish. (okee, almost anything. A holiday in the U.S. looks attractive with the current exchange rate). Bigger picture: whether the U.S. is in a recession or not is just an academic discussion. Rates are going down, inflation is going up, FED basically prints some extra dollars to pay the oil bill, and keep spending up. Holders of dollar reserves are thinking about diversifying, or acting already to do so. There are more and more dollars around, and by what are they covered? Trust. If trust goes, say goodbye. For good orders sake: I am NOT looking forward to that, or hoping that some sort of crisis will occur. The euro is my currency, but a dollar crisis will hurt me too. Let's hope things will get better soon.
Good luck.