WaveFan,

An eventual extended 5th wave could go to 1.63. I was told. You know I am not well informed about EW, but this was one thing I heard a few weeks ago (and posted on this forum) and got me thinking. Especially since charasteristics are overbought (sold) RSI and divergence all over the place.
I am not saying euro goes that high, I am a bit scared to buy here. I dont wanna be in the books for buying at the record high price
so I missed out on this move.
And maybe the other moves to come. we'll see.
Take care and dont forget about fundamentals. Bye.

As a newbie,I want to start by saying how much I Appreciate being able to benefit by the opinions of knowledgable people ,like American Trader, Guilder, and others.... you people are doing a Great service for those of us who are just starting out. I know I have a long road of learning ahead of me and I'm doing ok so far. but I have to start by thanking you for your wise words.

At the moment ,the only thing I can contribute to the discussion is maybe a few intelligent questions.

A few days ago I saw AT say that he was going to stay on the sidelines for this Eur/USD moment.....that turned out to be wise....I decided to play with it and got burned upside and down... I saw the waves but couldnt get in at the right moment. I knew it was going up , and then knew it was going down, but got in too late....rookie mistakes....as I learn how to play the game.


But based on what smart people here are talking about, my current questions are...

How much of these big movements in the eur/usd are .. 'controlled/orchestrated' by the ...??... central banks?,money /game controllers?....are they already "interveneing" in this whole game?
Since this high is a record, these levels have never been dealt with before....is the whole game board different now than its been in the past? do elliot waves no longer work when the us economy is collapsing as it is? are they intervening in ways that circumvent technical analysis, rendering it unusable? what are the best ways to analyze the game now?

I see people in their analysis, saying the euro will rise to 156,158,160 and beyond.... but what if the 'game controllers' dont want the euro that high? how can we know enough to play it correctly? How much is this game 'Rigged' in these ways? Logical examination (which I'm good at) ought to say that ,with the hurting,seriously hurting US economy,and not getting better soon, the Euro should go through the roof, theres no reason it shouldnt.
that the only reason the dollar rebounds is because the 'controllers' make it rebound....a rigged game.... how do we play in a rigged game?

Logic says that the natural movement since last year, or even beyond, should have the euro at about 148-150 now.... ...so many questions.... I dont want my post to be tiresome here,so I'll sign off soon...but I'm trying to learn, in the demo mode, every day is an amazing lesson...Ive learned not to freak out when I lose 1000 dollars of fake money....believe me thats a real improvement...

but I'm sensing a few things in my first impression of the Forex.
1) I can do this successfully with my natural ability for analysis, and an inner knack for feeling a pulse of data movement
2) It seems like somewhat of a "rigged game" ...but one that we can play along with if we know how.
3) it takes constant intense carefulness to make it work... intraday.
4) having your expert opinions will save me a year of study,I'm sure of that....

.... thanks again

Is it best to stay away from these times of extreme levels and wait until the rates go to a more predictable range?

Ive been learning how to scalp and do intraday so far....but I sense position trading may be better for the newbie. what do you thing.
I'm starting to pick my play point.... with care,and good analysis, and keep the leverage low like 10:1 or 20:1... and with luck, be right, and make $100 to $200 bucks for the day.I'd be happy with that for now.

Well brave or stupid, I'm not sure which side I fall on, however I do know there's a thin line separating the two, lol. I use Elliott Wave Principle as my primary analysis tool, and supplement that with stochastics. That's really it. So the wave count suggests a major top coming in place in a large wave III so that's what I'll go by. You can count five waves up from that consolidation period in the 1.4400 area. But the small wave 5 does seem a bit "stubby" and can quite possibly extend toward 1.5800. My short positions now are small and I'm jumping the gun a bit here in not waiting for a confirmation of the top, but I'm hedged a bit with shorts in the USD/JPY and from what I've seen with the EUR/USD when it ends large rallies is that it likes to snap back fast and sharp. Once I get confirmation a top is in I will add heavy to my position in preparation for a move to the prior wave 4 in the low 1.4400s. Also note the bearish divergence with the stochastics on the 8hr time frame with three nonconfirmations occurring with price making higher highs while stochastics make lower highs. This pair's medium term momentum is severely waning.

The dollar rally is almost upon us.

American-T

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go go go.... down down down... hehehe

Hi American Trader,

Is the 8 hr chart your preferred intraday timeframe to count EW? Or is any timeframe good for doing it; 1 hr, 2 hr, etc?

AT,

I don't think you're stupid by any stretch of the imagination. Your track record on the run up from the bottom of the triangle speaks for itself. That is some really great trading!

All markets reverse at some point or another. Before they do they will make everyone a believer that they will only continue to go one way. It never happens. When gold was hitting $850 and silver $50 (1979-80) the calls were for prices to go beyond the moon. We all know what happened thereafter.

The Euro is having it's day in the sun right now. However, be real careful. When the top comes people will be buying all the way down looking for support levels and "new" highs. They will be severely disappointed. Currencies tend to trend for LONG periods of time. Like years.

I am by no means an expert at this game. Many of you know a lot more than I do and probably are much more successful. I make - I loose. But, I have seen a lot. The froth is evident. Whether it's 100, 200, or even a bit more to the upside. AT, has it right and I think Jamie as well. The big long term trade is down.

The "long term" is certainly not a time frame that a lot of people can relate to. In fact, for the most part the idea of "trading" is the short term. The fact that AT held his position from the bottom of the triangle to a projected point at the top of wave 5 is what I consider real talent. Research, conviction, commitment, and execution. It doesn't get any better. Sweet.

The dollar has been here before. It always comes back. Just like life. Cycles. Sometimes they are very long and we don't have the patience to see them. Sometime we want it all to happen yesterday.

Your opinion AT and everything else along with it makes me believe you are on the money. I'm joining you in the party! Shorting one mil here and one mil every hundred pips up from here. I will ride it all the way down with you to the 1.44 wave four triangle low. No in and outs, no mistakes. Just ride it all the way down. I just wish in hindsight I was smart enough to have ridden it up with you! :-)

1.44 I think it is too extreme of a target and calling for a complete reversal now makes no sense. Unless you are basing this on the EW which to me is nothing substantial, one chart can mean different wave counts.

Consolidation, correction lower ...etc sure it can never sustain momentum higher forever. Anyways good luck on that!

All 3 orders now in:15390,15510,15570 for average 15490. SL at 15690.

Disclaimer:My advice and $2.00 will get you on the subway

Wow, very kind words, Diver, thank you very much you made my day. I'm starting to realize what you said about traders being very short term, and I wasn't aware that-that was the majority, but I'm starting to see that. Hey, do whatever works for that particular trader, right? Holding on to positions that long is extremely psychologically challenging. I have a rule that only the market can take me out of my position (i.e. stop loss or limit order), that way fear and panic won't take me out of a potentially successful trade early, and at a loss. But regardless, sometiems I want to duct tape my hands to my chair to be safe.

I do want to be clear on something. By trying to catch the absolute bottom in the dollar I can say I'm not adhering to good trading fundamentals and I'm being a bit greedy. Without a top already apparently in place, there's no clear stop loss level to manage risk. This pair may head to 1.5800, or even a little higher. The best thing would be to wait for a clear 5 wave decline and then sell into the bounce because then we'd have a clear risk level at the recent high. So with dollar signs in my eyes, I'm entering very small positions as the EUR/USD rises just to keep myself actively trading. One thing I have a really hard time with is having no position in the market at all. That's probably one of my biggest weakneses.

If my analysis is correct, the dollar bottom is approaching and hopefully we can all make some good pips on this dollar rally from the abyss it's wedged itself in.

Thanks again for your complimentary and insightful post, Diver.

Regards,
American-T

You are welcome AT.

One more thing that COULD happen. INTERVENTION. You do not want to wake up on the wrong side of that! If the BOJ steps in to work the YN. The FED could be next and so on. One day or two of coordinated Central Bank intervention can cripple an account if you are on the "other" side. I'm not saying it WILL happen BUT, the possibility may be getting very close. There has been a lot of coordinated movement lately between central banks on the whole credit crisis. Whether they can actually fix things or not is not the argument. They are not going to go down without a fight. That much has become obvious. If they coordinate to support the dollar for whatever reason it could be a massive signal to the market. It could be a huge day's range. Maybe it's just a dream but I have seen it happen in the past and you know what they say....history has a way of repeating itself.

Just a thought. :-)

Agree with that...

One question- Why?

That is why would they intervene?

The US budget deficit is not getting any smaller at this stage- so the $ has a lot further to fall to compensate and the CB's are involved in this $ weakeness.

Action speaks louder than words!

They have been fairly straight forward in that respect. Apart from mixed messages from the US to lead us into some confusion.
Don't be hypnotized by the rhetoric or the illusion that there will be intervention when it is they that are driving the $ lower and they have a plan.

__________________
Keep in mind that neither success nor failure is ever final. --Roger Babson (1875-1967)
YTD +5%

I am not denying the fact that euro is close to complete 5 waves up ahead of sharp decline but, this wave 5 target is the main trouble.

One way to count wave 5 is that wave 1 / and wave 3 from 1.3360 are somehow equal. So wave 5 could extend, which means 1.60+

I have a real bad feeling for shorts.

But on the other hand, cot data, and overbought readings argue for the correction to be soon than later.

So its pretty much mixed situation.

The corelation has ended or has it just begun between the EUR/USD vs USD/JPY?? The pair had close ties untill yesterday when I noticed the USD/JPY acting strangly? Usually when the EUR would go up the USD/JPY would trend down. I traded the pair this way with sucsess. The EUR/USD today when trending up from a dip would have to move 20 pips before the USD/JPY would budge lower. Yesterday and aspecully the last week it was right away? I have heard the Asians are buying the EUR along with the Saudi oil barrens to off set oil prices like Europe is doing. I havent figured out what this means though? There we go just closed my semi long at 1.5571 from 35 earlier. I had one limit out while I was away tonight at 15585 hour 23:29. Im going to stay out for the night Ive been watching and trading this for 20 yours a day!!! I need a break! Again I see the usual fib and regular technical signals as AT says the EWave is perty darn good at detecting moves. Like you mentioned AT the 5th can move 200 or even 300pips? Unless oil prices start dropping though USD is going to hurt! Right now in the uS prices are about the lowest in the world. if consumer spending is down right now whats higher gas prices going to do for most folks. Its around $5 a gallon hear and 60 bucks worth gets me close to a half tank but not exactly!! That means I have less the spend on electronics ect.... Diesl is even more and the transport companies are in trouble because of this. the only way for them to stay above water is to pass that on at the grocery store wich is starting to happen. High oil prices is the #1 culprit! Countries in Europe, Asia,and the middle east hedge there dollar to offset there inport costs. They have been doing so for quite some time. The US hasnt. Today in Canada the fed is going to make some gloomy predictions about our country and the News said its not going to be good! They never gave details? This will effect the USD so stay tuned! They may say what the US government isnt and then what for the USD? Im all out till I hear the news its a special report about the long term fate of our econamy.EEEK Darn I sold to soon the EUR?USD just tipped 1.5593!!! That was my original fib target. I use FIB late at night when the Asians are trading they like traditional number combinations ALWAYS WORKS!.LOL So 38% retraction from 93 is now 11min past the high at 58. Bouncing up a bit is 58 is brached then look for the 50% bottom at 46.5 whitch it looks like its heading now! That would be a higher low and we just saw a higher high. Next move up may break 156! The last high after the 50% retractment was 14% higher than 1.5581 so new high 1.5594.9 x 14% would put the next high at 1.5610. We,ll see how well the Asians and Brits are with there trading tonight, Later James

[quote=WaveFan;150269
But on the other hand, cot data, and overbought readings argue for the correction to be soon than later.

So its pretty much mixed situation.[/QUOTE]

I have made that mistake 3 times- NEVER again. OB does not help concerning Euro. Trend is one way and it really is your friend if they let you in!

__________________
Keep in mind that neither success nor failure is ever final. --Roger Babson (1875-1967)
YTD +5%