I will attach mine for you.

Under my count, prices are in 5 of 5.
Reversal potential increases sharply if we bypass the 1.5625 mark.

Attached Images

 

Many thanks WaveFan.
It certainly looks stretched. So 1,5625 could be it, the top, for now.
Its make or break for the dollar.
Thanks again, good luck!

I do not think its the top for one reason. That high was probably just wave 3 within 5 wave bull cycle. So prices should come above it to complete 5 of 5.

Once 5 of 5 are registered, eventually prices will correct in a-b-c shape possibly first to wave 4 zone 1.5144-1.5270

To make things even more complicated !
I thought we were in 5, but now it may be 3.
Looking at the price action: its not a spike we're seeing. It's just bid, even at these high levels. Oil 110, Gold 1000, USD JPY 100. Traders like round figures.

Meanwhile, Paulson says something like a strong dollar being in the U.S.'s interest. Heard that one b4. Juncker says that the U.S. says that a strong dollar is in the U.S.'s interest. Sounds familiar.
Guilder says things are complicated.
Good luck.

I tried to count it as 3 but it looks like 5. The 200-pip quick down I find this a big wave 4, not wave 4 within 3..so 3 has ended.. Just me anyway


Paulson says same stuff always, FX will ignore all this speech, they need Fed to say it. To put it more clear, they want Bernanke to say it, no one else.

A follow-up to my late last night-very early (east coast US) post RE: INTERVENTION:

(Copied) not my words.

Peaceful Uneasy Feeling; Markets Wait For Intervention New York, March 13th. Talking to US traders, there is a strange feeling of trepidation; the catalyst the sharp overnight surge in EUR/USD to 1.5624, and the collapse in USD/JPY to 99.77; US traders have embraced this brave new world by range trading in a sideways chop, with very little conviction. Senior traders note that there was an overwhelming sense of impending peril as they arrived early at their stations. Street talk is that people who speak to central banks had a sense that something would happen, and would happen soon.
The US session has unfolded, trading has been reasonably well behaved, but that same uneasy feeling remains. Most traders feel that the dollar is close to a bottom, but they also feel that it will take a does of joint central bank intervention to promulgate it; a la the "Plaza Accord". Over the past 30-yrs the major trends have only changed after a significant event, traders are betting on a major bankruptcy that will force the authorities hands, or joint intervention to quell the markets fears.

I don't know??? Maybe Yes - Maybe No. I guess I wasn't the only one thinking along these lines. Sometimes even dumbasses like me can guess right! LOL. :-)

Closed the 1/3 left of EUR long position.
Price action today seems to have set an unconfirmed top for the EUR with tomorrow being Friday might as well be ready to enjoy the weekend early.

with 1.5620 being that top, 1.5680 a series resistance still untested. Things will get choppy as it seems from here on. But USD/CHF was swift in its reversal seems like the best place to be long USD against.

The dollar is strengthening across the board, especially against the yen. It's possible for one more thrust to new lows but if you're very aggressive, like me, you can get heavily long the dollar now with low risk at the recent dollar bottoms. The wave count is a bit unclear right now, but it's getting real volatile and the momentum of the dollar decline is waning significantly, and almost yelling at us that's it's bottoming soon. The pairs against the dollar look like the shaky legs of a 150 pound man trying to squat 400 pounds. (EUR/USD currently at 1.5574)

American-T

AT,

LOL! I love the last part! Unfortunately, I know I guy who is about 150 that can squat close to the 400. Well, maybe more like 175 and 350. Does that mean we make almost a new low but not quite? :-)

AT--

I think wave count is clear, this is wave 5 (5 of 5) in 1hr chart, a spike thru 1.5626 would increase reversal potential sharply. Fibonacci and harmonic relations suggest a major top for me too besides elliott wave count.

Cable entered a significant fibonacci reversal zone as well. Interestingly!

A major top for Euro could be just between 1.56-1.57 a spike in this level is high probability tomorrow, but hey!! it's Friday.. you never know when euro rallies in Friday something might happen like the ugly reversal candlesticks

Anyway, time will tell.

Dollar is obviously falling back across the board but only the euro made a new high against it amongst the GBP, JPY and CHF. I'm still turning bullish on the dollar for a substantial correction.

American-T

1,5640 and still bid. Even I, EUR bull find it hard to believe. It keeps going up, and time after time we have to adjust the price that is probably going to be the top. 1,4950, 1,5260, 1,5500, 1,5625. Whats next? 1,5750 ?
Wall Street closed up 35, S&P had some 'good' news (end is near for subprime writedowns), so one could expect a bit of relief.
Its obvious these are dramatic times for financial markets. Take care, bye.

AT,

Do you think this is due to cross activity or non-confirmation of the dollars overall weakness at these levels?

More likely the second. Seeing as that a very large wave 3 is ending in a bunch of five waves, there was a very strong downward dollar trend for quite some time, crowd psychology has capitulated to dollar weakness, the bottoming process is making it hard for the dollar to make new lows across the board. This type of non-confirmation and momentum divergence is typical it the topping/bottoming process.

But dollar bears may not want to let go just yet. I need to see some new lows made by impulse waves to really start to pinpoint a top for the EUR/USD

American-T