Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 233 - DailyFX Forex Forum

jagman82 · #**3481** (**permalink**) 03-17-2008, 02:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by American Trader

Hi Jagman, thanks for the question and kind words. Something very significant, or catastrophic, would have to transpire to change my position that the dollar is in for a large rally soon. The only question, or doubt, in my analysis is when. The dollar has fallen much further than I thought it would over the past week. I began shorting this pair at 1.5380 and have been selling small positions into the entire rally. Although I only have a position size 20% of the entire position I want to take on this upcoming dollar rally, I was obviously way too early. But that's what I get for not sticking to trading fundamentals and trying to pick the absolute top.

Outside of a catastrophe, I have to see the reversal occur and play out, and watch the EUR/USD break key support levels which should establish new resistance levels. If my corrective wave count gets violated it may give doubt into my larger wave count. So it's possible that might change my position on the dollar. But I'll have to wait for the reversal to play out and progress before I can make a determination. I don't see anything happening before the correction at all that would alter my stance though. And even though the dollar may continue to fall a little in the short term, there's no way I'd short the dollar here with my future mother-in-law's money unless I was a very very short term trader.

That gbp trade you mentioned offers a good risk/reward and if you're bearish the euro then it's a good possible hedge trade. I wouldn't do it, but that's me. Did the analyst that was bullish the gbp say what the basis of his projection was? fundamental? technical? And outside of the analysts and me and everyone else who thinks they know it all (lol), what do you, Jagman, think the dollar is going to do here?

I wish you the best on your trades. I see big moves ahead in currencies, especially with this global sell off and panic occuring now. It has capitulation written all over it, in both currencies and equities.

Regards,

American-T

AT

Thank you for the response, I value your opinion. I think we can all agree that the currencies are not exactly behaving “normal”. I remember a time when the market had some correlation to it, before the massive carry trades began. If the EUR was going up so was the pound. That does not seem to the case anymore and it makes the currencies more difficult to trade.

As for the pound, will it go to 2.1162 again, I don’t know? It will have to break above 2.0464 before I would feel comfortable with that projection. With the Fed meeting this week and the possibility of a 75 or 100 bp cut in the interest rate that is a very good possibility.

The big question is will the EUR follow if the pound breaks out to the up side. Given the pound is lagging the EUR by several hundred pips at this point it could move up significantly without the EUR making much higher highs.

The analyst that was bullish the GBP was with BOA and sighted the fact that the pound was lagging other G10 currencies and the eminent cut in the Fed fund rate so I would have to conclude he was basing his projecting on fundamentals.

Another analysis I have mentioned earlier is bullish on the pound and believes it may hit 2.0500/2.0600 in the next week or so. She is not so bullish on the EUR however. Here are her comments on the EUR.

http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk/TresInternet/PDF'S/eur.pdf

What I do believe is that the market is at a crucial pivot point and care should be taken in whatever position one holds.

Best to you AT and all the other traders here,

jagman82

whipper · #**3482** (**permalink**) 03-17-2008, 03:47 AM

AT funny you should mention the pound. I just made a trade based on the pounds movement! I noticed the GBP/USD moveing ahead of the EUR/USD by about 20seconds. I traded the EUR/USD of the other pairs chart! I thought I would try it and it worked well. Good for 20pips anyway. I made a second trade just now off the pounds chart this time the lage was over a min. The Pound rockeded up will the EUR was steady so bought the eur and when I saw the pound loose ground I waited a min and sold the EUR! Anyway I though it was fun.LOL The pound is making a big move right now gota go.

whipper · #**3483** (**permalink**) 03-17-2008, 04:04 AM

A WEDGE IS FORMING OFF A ONE MIN CHART eru/usd. RSI ,s are tightening and the corelation between the pound as ended. A break down to the next level of suport seems evedent.

fxstats · #**3484** (**permalink**) 03-17-2008, 04:12 AM

HI all,
Interesting head line on Dailyfx

09:06 NEWS: ECB Members Cancel Prior Engagements London, March 17th. Dealers note the news from the ECB that two members of the European Central Bank"s Governing Council have canceled their prior speaking engagements. Axel Weber will not be attending an event organized by the European Union Chamber of Commerce while Christian Noyer has also canceled his attendance. Both the BdF and the Bundesbank suggest personal reasons are behind the moves but speculation has since mounted that various emergency meetings and talks are looming. Matthew.Foster-Smith@Thomson.com

melbgirl · #**3485** (**permalink**) 03-17-2008, 04:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whipper

A WEDGE IS FORMING OFF A ONE MIN CHART eru/usd. RSI ,s are tightening and the corelation between the pound as ended. A break down to the next level of suport seems evedent.

The Euro certainly is starting to look a bit limp as rumours of ECB meetings are starting to trickle in...I still wonder how I cannot find my own posts on this forum?

kramerica · #**3486** (**permalink**) 03-17-2008, 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by diver

Just shorted another 1 mil @ 1.5900. Oh well. :-)

Nice moves.. Do you have a target?.. (not that you need one)

diver · #**3487** (**permalink**) 03-17-2008, 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kramerica

Nice moves.. Do you have a target?.. (not that you need one)

The original beakout point of the triangle. 1.49 or so. Depending on whether I am using my high power reading glasses or not. LOL.

I would also like like to thank AT for all his help and his great commentary. As far as I am concerned he is one of the best on this forum.

kramerica · #**3488** (**permalink**) 03-17-2008, 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by diver

The original beakout point of the triangle. 1.49 or so. Depending on whether I am using my high power reading glasses or not. LOL.

I would also like like to thank AT for all his help and his great commentary. As far as I am concerned he is one of the best on this forum.

Yes, AT seems to be doing his homework. I started shorting at 1.56 .. did not close at a big loss.. (thank god) and may short another 10k at 1.57 .

My plan is to short 10k at every 50 pip level down to 1.50 (from 1.56) .. Well.. plans always change.. I do think it will return to 1.5 as well..

I can't help thinking there is a "hysteria" effect going on and it only takes a needle to pop the biggest balloon..

Panda Eyes · #**3489** (**permalink**) 03-17-2008, 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by diver

The original beakout point of the triangle. 1.49 or so. Depending on whether I am using my high power reading glasses or not. LOL.

I would also like like to thank AT for all his help and his great commentary. As far as I am concerned he is one of the best on this forum.

i more than agreed w/ u of AT expertise input.
so r many of u guys. i sure learn a lot fm this forum.

can someone assist input on eur/ chf...hmmm..my dad has
bought at higher lvl & i m not familiar in this cross at all.

tks. panda eyes

Guilder · #**3490** (**permalink**) 03-17-2008, 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by diver

What better time to intervene than at the top of the rally! If the market has topped and then the intervention comes it will be all the more potent. Instead of fighting the runaway market just kick it on the way down.

No intervention yet, so no top of the rally either?
Anyone who believes central banks will enter the market to buy the dollars that nobody else wants should think again. Once again: the Fed does not seem to care about a lower dollar.
The U.S. is in heavy weather, Fed lowers rates > dollar down > commodities up as a hedge > inflation in EZ up > ECB cannot lower rates > EUR up > dollar down > commodities up > etc. So this downward spiral needs to be broken, and just intervention wont do it.
Are oil dealers waiting for intervention? Gold dealers maybe?

In due term we will see 1,50 again, and why not, 1,44. The real question is how high we go before that. For now that's more interesting then selling at what definitely-must-be-the-top-because-intervention-is-nearby again and find yourself short in a fierce upmove.
Good luck.

JOKER · #**3491** (**permalink**) 03-17-2008, 09:42 AM

What are the opinions on tomorrows Rate Decision?

kramerica · #**3492** (**permalink**) 03-17-2008, 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guilder

No intervention yet, so no top of the rally either?
Anyone who believes central banks will enter the market to buy the dollars that nobody else wants should think again. Once again: the Fed does not seem to care about a lower dollar.
..........................................

In due term we will see 1,50 again, and why not, 1,44. The real question is how high we go before that. For now that's more interesting then selling at what definitely-must-be-the-top-because-intervention-is-nearby again and find yourself short in a fierce upmove.
Good luck.

I agree.. I don't think a top is nearby because of the possibility of intervention. I think the top is nearby (or in place) because of rationale. Of course, many of us have been saying that since 1.38 .. I just think 1.59 fullfills many of the desired objectives of the Euro bulls (an TAs).. we'll see.. There is no doubt this is an extra-ordinary scenario... and it may continue on..

It is true.. chasing a top can be crushing..

FXHarold · #**3493** (**permalink**) 03-17-2008, 10:06 AM

I just heard that the Fed cut the rates again over the weekend. Does anyone know the reason or is it again because of the USD/EUR exchange rate and the fear of a recession?

madankumars · #**3494** (**permalink**) 03-17-2008, 10:46 AM

what that hell was that spike down from 5790 to 5710???about?

Q8FXjunkie · #**3495** (**permalink**) 03-17-2008, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by madankumars

what that hell was that spike down from 5790 to 5710???about?

According to Bloomberg, a source from the ECB tells MNI that ECB officials will express concern about the strength of the EUR (i.e. verbal intervention)...