tks u & bibi,
these r super helpful for my directionless dad, who just told me
he go in long eur/chf base on nothing (not technical nor fundamental).omg

he just felt chf cant & shdnt break parity & went long eur/chf last fri.

its gd to hear fm expert & learn more myself. tks

I'll have my stop losses in place, a helmet on my head, and my hands duct taped to the chair to prevent emotions controlling my moves. Should be a wild ride tomorrow.

American-T[/quote]

LOL..I guess many of us would be millionaires if only we could just turn our back to the screen!

Hey there all.... hiya Bibi........

Been busy lately......... anyone here wants to buy an aircraft..........

Things are pretty dull for the USD and that was some rally on opening bells.
i had some pretty heavy yen longs order placed which got triggered while i was sleeping and got hit out pretty bad....
Anyways euro has been a buyer and did quite decent.
Currently 5835 region is resis and if this could withstand pressure during the FOMC announcement, we have mid 55's in insight.

Charts are vague and with virgin lvls at hand, it is not easy to speculate the next move.
However 61** are quite possible and i have already marked those TL's for short gunning. it holds true could pocket 4-500 pips if stayed patience.....

yen is having my full interest....... possible intervention or any sign of bounce back in the USD, would be ideal to long USD/JPY for initial test of 102.66 followed by 103.** at least if not 106.33..........

Will try to acquire long term positions on Yen and would be selling EURO on any failure to 5825-40..........

charts are provided, however do remember that i have an unorthodox style of plotting charts so don't get confuse out.......... furthermore these types of plotting TL's, i have been doing for quite sometimes when things are not clear the usual way of plotting..........

Attached Files

Fiber.doc (162.5 KB, 108 views)

__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

Good morning all,

OK. So everything I'm hearing, reading, etc. is that it is a given that the number will be 100 basis points. So, less kills stox - rally in the $ and 100 if it comes then is what? Neutral? We go down, go up, stay here?

I know that the overall trend will not change over the number BUT, there is always fireworks. Opinions? Comments?

Got stopped out of some of my 1.59 shorts from yesterday right about here on the rally overnight. Still holding core shorts for the duration until I see the triangle B.O again. Would like to short on any test of 1.59 and failure. Sounds too pat. Everyone in the world will be looking for that one. LOL. Maybe just maybe the Fed disappoints the stock market and helps the $.

Stryker .. didn't know that you are selling your private fleet (j/k)
Thnx for input, was missing your posts lately. Still think that EUR wil go above 1,60. Chart looks like that and there is mass of shorters in the watter.

Panda eyes, your dad should be out of trouble slowly. Hope next time he 'll do better research before entering the market.

GL all

hi there Bibi......... bigger better shorts offocurse above 160 or round about 161**, and would test the TL i have on hand.. it is a steeper channel rising and any stiff resis would call off for a bigger profit taking and would love that.
i have no attachment to any one of the currency and all it matter is to be on the correct direction........
5835 shorts are lighter in value and stops would be tight... cannot fool around as we do have 100 BP cut on the board.. however this would have been apparent with the rally already done on the opening bells and unless no further bigger surprises are stored this needs to retrace back.
maybe Fed's might come with a bigger surprise.......
lets see what happens

__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

Here is some additional input from an analysis that has been fairly accruate.

Daily Outlook
EUR/USD daily
Mon, Mar 17 2008, 16:16 GMT
by Dimo Dimov
Karoll



The euro stays very stable against the dollar and continues to hit record high after record high. It still looks very bullish and at least one more new high above 1.5904 should be expected. The problem here is the fact that I still can not rule out one more fall below today’s low 1.5685 before the expected new rise. On the other side if such a fall indeed occurs and if it is very sharp and fast, this could be a signal that 1.5904 is a temporary high and that a correction of the most recent rise has already started. With an eye on this I prefer to be neutral at the moment. If we see a new rise above 1.5904, the today’s low becomes the key support for the validity of the uptrend. In a case of such a rise, one should expect a re-test of the psychological level 1.6000
Trading strategy: 10:27 EST; 15:27 GMT
Stand aside

Published on Mon, Mar 17 2008, 16:19 GMT

Nothing conclusive to be accurate on tbh. But in these market conditions indeed nothing beats standing aside. Small long can never hurt though.

tks so much. all u experts advices r super helpful & highly appreciated.
my dad is saved..but not my short gbp, lol.
orignal t/p lvl 19960 yesterday was moved to 19880 lvl...& now..sigh.

too greedy & stupid gut feeling instead of follow the system signal

I would not short this pair now for a short term trade. If you want to ease into it and DCA as it moves up, you can do that. But the dollar looks poised to make new lows across all the majors and so the EUR/USD should make a new high too. I must say though that this could possibly be the last push to a new high and a quick sharp fierce reversal is possible. So if you're long, keep a good eye on it once it tests the old high, or makes a new one.

Upside potential is likely, however it's limited, in my opinion.

American-T

It's probably too late to get long the GBP, and it's not clear on if a top is already in, or it's going to make a new high against the dollar with the other majors. However if I had to trade it, I would be a buyer on dips against 2.0000. The dollar appears ready for a new low in general, so the GBP should benefit from that.

I would also be long the euro in the short term (I currently have a small short position I've been accumulating over time though. I'm long in all the other majors against the dollar except the GBP). This pair pulled back a little this morning and it can be a good buying opportunity against 1.5695.

These ideas are not of highest confidence because this appears to be the very last throws of the dollar's decline and should therefore be watched carefully, especially if the pairs make new highs against the dollar. I'm wary of a sharp dollar bottom and reversal so be careful.

But I do see that most of the majors show their recent dollar rallies are just corrections as they are very choppy, so it doesn't appear to be a change in trend. So new dollar lows should be acheived.

American-T

by the way YES........ i do sell/lease aircrafts.... any type....... let me know ur type......
GL .............. Trading..............

__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

got a web site?




AT I also dare to ask you a Q or anyone else who feels comfortable answering it.

With upcoming rate cut what is/are the best pair/pairs to trade.

Where shall we expect solid movement?

Hi AT

Current indication is a sustained move above 2.0230 in the pound should propel it back into “reversal zone” at 2.0363/2.0464. It would require a move above this level to alter most studies that say it is going to resume its decline to 1.9337 and below. With a sustained move above the “reversal zone” there is the possibility to revisit last November’s high at 2.1164.

It is an unusual situation as I have mentioned before with the relationship between the EUR and the pound with the pound lagging the EUR by several hindered pips. With this in mind I would not be surprised to see the pound rally WITH the dollar, after all it fell with the dollar the other day.

So if the EUR makes a new high and turns south, the pound may just keep going up. I plan to buy again on a sustained move above 2.0230 with tight stops. I believe we will see at least 2.0400 in the pound if not higher.

I spy............dollar bears! Amazing stories, part 1.
Then again, being flexible is a good quality. At least it can save you money.
Dollar is holding up now, but its just taking a breather for another run down. Good luck.