After the close when overseas investors are in, the trend will turn bearish against the USD extending to overnight in my opinion. Bull rally is North American markets display of optimism because the cuts were under a point? The fact that there was a cut and over .50 should be enough warning that trouble has just begun for the Greenback in my opinion. As was mentioned on every news feed there is more room for more cuts because the next year should have quarter after quarter of decreasing economic data flows.Most 15min charts show an over sold position. Once the pressures off NA markets?

Hey everyone. I have been lurking through these forums and I think this is the perfect time to start chirping in. Anyone else disappointed with the market reaction from the Fed announcement?

i cant believe i am buying USD right now lol

i've been setting tight stops and tight profit-takes set too...

working out good so far

ive profited off several quick in and outs

I placed a sell EUR/USD around 2pm EST and the market started to go long so I hedged it quick to ignore the noise prior to the FED announcement. Now I have a small limbo of -11 pips. (no big deal). I am trying to strategize when I want to release my sell.

Do you guys think that I should try to just hold out the sell until we feel we have reached a bottom, then ride up the buy?

It was backwards! Any cut over .50 should have rocketed the pairs the price hadnt been priced in like some say because nothing was at any level it already wasnt in before the Fed even hinted about the size of cuts. There should be a massive correction I would think because a .75 cut is huge. The prospects for greater cuts is eminant also so its hard to understand why the markets are happy about a .75 cut in intrest rates? Its like the guy beat to a pulp like AT said once but this time out of no were just when you think hes finished he takes a swing and conects. the only problem is its the last punch he had left and it wasnt enough. He continues to get beaten up even more! i stole the first part of that story from AT hope ya dont mind it seemed apropriate right now. SMILE

Stryker, I am still new to forex trading but have been doing a lot of research in the past couple of months. What do you mean by 'sell on failure' I see that term on a lot of dailyfx.com reports but don't quite grasp what it means. Also, do you know of a site where I can learn about Elliott Wave theory in fairly uncomplicated fashion? Your advice is greatly appreciated. Thanks.

This guy on youtube explains it pretty well with a chart

http://youtube.com/watch?v=TzyqM5oW5e4&feature=related

1,5640. Cheap, isn't it?

1.5620 and still more expensive than were I took profit 1.5580.
Daily candle looks extremely bearish (calls for 1.5530), would buy into a break of 1.56 but what the heck hourly intra-day are spanking fresh hard to pass on a long at this point.
1/3 long 1.5625 and waiting for tomorrow London to kick in and listen to the charts another flush lower would be even better.

USD/JPY was a trap of death lost 70 point of my hard earned gain on that short. 100.60 sure looks possible at the moment.

Tomorrow is another day, fresh buyers or sellers! Some will be very happy to see USD/JPY at 99.80 to spank.

Very unexpected results today, obviously, as my expectation was for new dollar lows across the majors. The EUR/USD was the first to break key support at 1.5685, I was stopped out of USD/JPY at 100.13, and USD/CHF is just pips from stopping out at 1.0065. But the AUD and CAD never came close to stopping out, held steady all day, and are currently pushing the dollar down, and the AUD just made a new high-completing a clear five wave rally. The GBP/USD also just stayed above support at 2.0035 and is now rallying. On top of that, the stock market rallied insanely.

I think I'd rather have gotten a root canal and proctology exam done at the same time than have gone through today's trading.

The EUR/USD's new low was the first sign of trouble. However on the hourly chart you can see a verly clear 3 wave drop. Need to continue trying to absord the whole big picture here. Right now I'm a bit in awe, frustrated, and confused. This dollar rally still loook corrective for the most part, however in the USD/JPY and EUR/USD it's gone too far, and the GBP and CHF hasn't broken any rules but it sure does decrease the odds of a correction. I still need to see a clear impulsive dollar rally and I don't really see that yet. Anyone else? Any thoughts?

American-T

AT, these are the times I wonder what keeps me in FX, my only hope is that going through them is probably the best part of my training...I got to make it work for me! I gather that you are a very experienced trader so your confusion says it all.
I think in EUR/JPY and the other yen crosses we'll see a return to the lows and despite the impressive bounce I have a feeling that this pair is going to be a "sell rallies" one for quite some time to come, since the tide turned in July 2007.

(Im still having problems posting on this forum, could someone please let me know if you can read them?)

Melbgirl

It was so obvious. That's the catalyst for a EURUSD reversal. Market was overreacting and pricing a 100 bps rate cut, it came out only 75bps. A long legged doji, a bearish candle suggest a top in place.

Although; I believe the rally in USDJPY will be subdued, credit crunch is not over. Hence I opened fresh short on the kiwi looking for 0.7600 as my initial tgt.

Gl

Some strange trading going on. Looks like the banks are getting ready to let the EUR go. Theres a small blip on every pair. They must be getting swamped with USD cash exchanges for EUR. every ones being so nice to the Greenback. It just wonderfull to see banks working in unisen together given the US a break since there worse off than anyone suspected. Personaly I would have liked to see a .25 rate cut given the economic uncurtanty.>??LOL

This is nothing economic or technical, but, curious if anyone is kinda wondering why Euro and UK officials are cancelling there trips. If i remember correctly Weber cancelled his trip to Canada due to family emergency, but seems more are cancelling. mmmmmm?

I have seen a few reports over the wires the past couple of days.

I don't see any evidence of a dollar bottom and large rally taking place. I was stopped out of some trades but that could just mean the correction became more complex than anticipated due to the big news today. But I don't see any significant signs of a dollar bottom. I'm keeping my positions short dollar positions, i.e. long the AUD/USD, short the USD/CHF and USD/CAD, and I just entered a long position on the GBP/USD against yesterday's lows. It looks like a good risk reward ratio and I like the way it declined in 3 waves and recovered well without making a new low.

I still see dollar weakness, however confidence is obviously lower in this outlook. But it's still there.

American-T