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03-26-2008, 03:38 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 467
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Bernakie speaking?
Is Bernakie speaking somewhere right now? The last time Eur did this was during the FOMC meeting! I just sat there and watched it go straight up all day with out even a stall! I'm ready to go short to but.. I think I'll get in around .5750.. Seems safer than fighting this vertical theme park ride. I'm waiting for Clear resistance to show up at .5870 to .5900.
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03-26-2008, 03:40 PM
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Enerything points to a trunaround, but will it?
MACD & CCI both show divergence but the EUR looks unstopable
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03-26-2008, 03:49 PM
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We trade the "now", not the "tomorrow".
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03-26-2008, 03:56 PM
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Technical Trader
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 1,942
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jagman82
Stryker you are a brave soul shorting the EUR. I believe it will top 1.6. I know there is that school of thought that says it has to turn around however I have a framed saying next to my desk that says:
“The market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain liquid”
Keeps me humble. |
AGREED “The market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain liquid”
lol........ if u were sitting like me with the amount of lots im holding and only getting 5813 as avg including the shorts picked rt now from 5854.... and wondering where is ERUO getting all this strength.......... i mean i have been trading for over 7 yrs now and i can't figure a rally like this.......my stops will start triggering from 5866 for the weaker shorts...... and i have decided to place the reamining stops above the previous high.........
to be frank i might simply bail out and take a breather here......
had an awesome trading expereince since i came back from a short weekend.....
but seriously, has anyone seen anything like this.........
this bunny ain't stopping.........
if i lose would give me a reaon to analyze the fact why i stayed short once 5812 was taken out......... i guess i was expecting a quick turn around and a retrace..........
but any stall prior to taking out the preious high.......... hmmm..... lets do the maths..........
GL ALL............
__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
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03-26-2008, 03:59 PM
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Technical Trader
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 1,942
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FiboMan
stryker,
Can you provide more detail on how exactly you use or draw your trendlines?
thanks,
FiboMan
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i have been asked by others as well................... i will document something and post it on the forum........ in a week's time...........
__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
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03-26-2008, 04:34 PM
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It looks like we are either going to see a massive double top put in and a huge drop OR a tremendous breakout to all time new highs very shortly. What other alternatives are there at this point? Seems cut & dry at these levels. AND yes I am amazed at where this strength is coming from all of the sudden. It is like doing all this with really no new major backround news. Maybe that's scariest of all. :-)
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03-26-2008, 04:52 PM
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OK, it looks like the 60 min, 30 min, and shorter time frame charts are massively overbought. It looks like 5 waves up from the low at 153.40. We are just under the previous all time high. It would seem that we should have some kind of correction here BEFORE any new highs are achieved. That being said there is nothing logical about what has happened so far the last few days. SO?
The $/CHF is just touching a .618 ret. of the move off the lows. The $/JPY is just touching a .382 ret. move off the lows. Neither of these two major currencies are showing the strength against the $ that the EUR is. Is that meaningful? The GBP/$ is not even relevant.
I have all the pieces that seem to being saying we should have a sell off here BUT this move is scaring me too and I'm not sure whether or not it will really come. Anyone care to comment on any of this? I'd like to hear some opinions on this move. Thanks.
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03-26-2008, 04:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by diver
OK, it looks like the 60 min, 30 min, and shorter time frame charts are massively overbought.
I have all the pieces that seem to being saying we should have a sell off here BUT this move is scaring me too and I'm not sure whether or not it will really come. Anyone care to comment on any of this? I'd like to hear some opinions on this move. Thanks.
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That's where I went wrong several times lately as rallies seem to be very sticky and pullbacks are often delayed but most of the time still occur and take us by surprise. |
03-26-2008, 05:05 PM
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100 Post Club
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Join Date: Apr 2005
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Diver many oscilators are made that way that they never reach the top level and they work ussaly in sidways trading. If you take sohastic and look back you can also see that even if sohastic is falling fiber can go higher and all sell signals are ussaly wrong ones. Take a look back and you'll se what I m talking about.
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03-26-2008, 05:10 PM
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by melbgirl
That's where I went wrong several times lately as rallies seem to be very sticky and pullbacks are often delayed but most of the time still occur and take us by surprise.
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i do not believe in "overbought" anymore, this is why I stick to fundamentals & no more technical analyses before the market stabilise...
for now there is no more logical thinking...panic is the word!!
gr |
03-26-2008, 05:16 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by diver
It looks like we are either going to see a massive double top put in and a huge drop OR a tremendous breakout to all time new highs very shortly. What other alternatives are there at this point? Seems cut & dry at these levels. AND yes I am amazed at where this strength is coming from all of the sudden. It is like doing all this with really no new major backround news. Maybe that's scariest of all. :-)
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OIL 101.55 - 106.50 in one day
there is your reason, now why oil went up so far in one day I do not know or understand but it will explain the rally today, OR maybe the rally explaines the rise in OIL?? |
03-26-2008, 05:21 PM
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Don't understand why all the mystery about today's move. Just look at the Econ Calender and you'll have your answer. EZ data was very, very good, while US data really, really sucked.
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03-26-2008, 05:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ricardo
i do not believe in "overbought" anymore, this is why I stick to fundamentals & no more technical analyses before the market stabilise...
for now there is no more logical thinking...panic is the word!!
gr
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I agree with part of what you're saying but I've seen too many times when after positive data a currency went exactly the opposite way. On the other hand, from my experience, severely overbought/oversold studies will prompt a bounce or pullback most of the time, if not immediately, then in a day or two. |
03-26-2008, 05:28 PM
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similar structure
11 March and 24th March increases are very much like the same.
Within several hours we may see a correction wave that will delay of passing 1.59. If price stalls for several hours then the correction wave will be inevitable. Who knows next...
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03-26-2008, 05:36 PM
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Posts: 824
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StriderX
Correction, corrective retrace, new impulse series......?
Noble work there Mr. A-Trader & those sweating the EW POVs
--proper right side charting we all strive towards
Here's an attempted effort from my sparsely schooled EW view
showing the possible/maybe 3 or "c" in process
to challenge at least the 88.6 --94.1 (5840-72)
or battle thru w/stop manipulations to 5980s & then
beyond into flirting the 1.272 area as far as 6060s
to complete the 5th of 3
OBs regardless of look really matter little in the laggard indies
when in this type of mode
yet eventually we'll take the Atrade
south
Euro move soon runs out of time
in the MT level
Thurs/Fri to review the fib/wave stage(s)
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That looks really good. The only thing I'm having a problem with is the red a-b-c at the end there, accompanied by a wave [3]. I'm not clear on how an abc correction fits into a wave [3]. I agree with your ABC down, and the impulsive rise, I'm just not clear on the abc rally.
American-T
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