You might be right although I am already up 50 pips per lot, $1000. Am going to look at the charts to see whether I will add to my position or close it out soon and take my profits...

Closed out at 1.3606 with a profit of 112 pips on 2 lots, $1,120.00. Not bad. Waiting to see if we go below 1.3585 although at this time looking at a 15 minute chart it looks like we are going back up.

Does any US based forex dealer sell barrier or binary exotic currency options?

thanks

Looking at the EURUSD, the pair has gone about as far down as possible while still maintaining a short term bullish bias. The line in the sand is 1.3582. Coming under here negates the triangle seen here. As long as this triangle remains intact (1.3582), a terminal thrust above 1.3680 is possible. Keep in mind though that a reversal is expected to follow if the terminal thrust does occur. Daily studies are increasingly bearish - MACD crossover, RSI rolling over from above 70, channel resistance and most importantly....extremely euro bullish/dollar bearish sentiment (as indicated by COT data). These are the conditions that lead to tops so longs should keep risk tight.

Attached Images

 

Please make sure to read the rules of the forum. This thread is for discussions regarding the EUR/USD only. Please post your question in the appropriate thread, such as Beginner's Area. Thank you

DailyFX Forum

The Fib retrace method is an interesting way to diversify price albeit at some very serious assumption of risk. If your assumptions are wrong you have just acquired 4 times more risk that the single entry method. However, if you are right and the uptrend holds you will have a great blended price.

This is one of those philosophical issues of trading that does not carry an easy answer.

Good job. If EUR PMI Manufacturing surprises to the downside - it could push spot to 1.3540 and confirm the turn.

Very range bound conditions today as the markets await the key NFP report. The bottom line is that EUR is grossly overbought and the latest EZ economic data offers no support for a hike beyond the expected 4% in June. Therefore, EUR strength must come from dollar's weakness and dollar's weakness can only come from a bad NFP as all other US data has been relatively buoyant. Today we have ISM services and it will be interesting to see if this report confirms the expansionary tone of the ISM Manufacturing yesterday.

In short EURUSD may go higher on fundamentals, but it is looking very tired in technicals.

Very True

That's why I load only one fib area @ time. That's 3577-21 at the moment.

I would scale out of it gradually, by stopping out the top lots & buying lower 3484 --> 3521 as retraction continues - & so on.

The concept is to keep risk on the overall position 5%. 2.5% for starters, and 2.5% for adding (up or down for that matter).

When stops are hit to consume 1.25% of the overall 5%. I long intraday low levels on the swissdollar in an attempt to regain the lost 1.25%.

As the Eurodollar would be moving down to lower fibs to pyramid on the original position, the swissdollar would be moving up. And its ideal to re-coupe the hit stops then.

It is key however to enter at the projected very extreme lows of the Swissdollar. And U need to calculate a good pivots or camarila levels for this.

All the Best of Trades

__________________
Sincere Regards
Summerset
______________________________
* If you have a positive view towards what you are reading. Don’t take that to mean that you should follow it. It could PROVE ALL WRONG. If you have a negative view towards it, then CERTAINLY you won’t bother with it. If you have no idea what its talking about, then please DON’T EXPERIMENT with it !! ! …In SHORT, what THIS disclaimer is telling you IS :-
TRADERS TRADE AT THEIR OWN PERIL – PERIOD

Summerset - at what point do you initiate your USDCHF long as a hedge? Simultaneously to the 1st EURUSD buy or after the first level has been hit and the trade begins to move against you?

After the 1st level is clearly unrecoverable, and the trade is moving against me.

I close out the 1st level at a specific pivot level (at loss) - Reload lower, and hedge at the same time.

Its all explained in live example on the attached charts.

On Charts:-

Grey level = Pivot Zone
Blue level = moving average daily fluctuation high & low.
Green zone = Breakout zone.(signals meduim trend is set)

Attached Images

  

__________________
Sincere Regards
Summerset
______________________________
* If you have a positive view towards what you are reading. Don’t take that to mean that you should follow it. It could PROVE ALL WRONG. If you have a negative view towards it, then CERTAINLY you won’t bother with it. If you have no idea what its talking about, then please DON’T EXPERIMENT with it !! ! …In SHORT, what THIS disclaimer is telling you IS :-
TRADERS TRADE AT THEIR OWN PERIL – PERIOD

Thank you - that a very interesting and flexible approach to trading.

Generally - I believe technically oriented trading can be boiled down to trading specific price levels, while fundamental trading is driven by event risk. The two disciplines can be combined but ultimately the trader has to chose what path to follow, otherwise he will simply be lost without guidance.

We'd love to hear everyone's opinion on the subject.

NFP is key,

Today we posted a very good pre-NFP report which we urge you to readhttp://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...202389807.html

But the net takeaway is that given the sour sentiment, the hotter number will help the buck more than a colder number will hurt it.

The other very important point to remember is that revisions are almost more important than the headline. So keep an eye in them.

[quote=DailyFX Analyst]NFP is key,

Today we posted a very good pre-NFP report which we urge you to read



It is a very good summary. Thank you.

Or perhaps lost with too much guidance. Conflicting messages can leave you impotent in the -----house of fx markets.

I think you need to have a firm base in one camp or the other, with a well tested strategy that you can be confident in. With that in place you could possibly still utilise the slam dunk opportunities that show up in the other camp from time to time, to put a bit of icing on the cake. But that is just my opinion. I assume there are plenty of traders out there that successfully straddle the technical / fundamental divide. It all comes down to knowing who you are in the marketplace and building a trading strategy that suits your personality, psyche, lifestyle and time availability. At the end of the year (or perhaps decade) the only thing that counts is return on your investment (of time and money). As long as it is better than the opportunity cost of utilising your time and capital elsewhere, you are a winner.

Personally I prefer a purely technical approach to trading ( Daily OHLC data) as I am way too poor an analyst to winnow the wheat from the chaff in the world of fundamentals. For me it is full of grey areas, unrequited expectations, myths, manipulations and rumours. …… Buy the rumour, sell the fact is all very well in you have a consistently reliable source of rumours.
Whatever happens in the fundamental world becomes reflected in price behaviour. Even if China is rebalancing its currency reserves from USD to EUR… it doesn’t matter it will show up in the charts as buying pressure in favour of EUR, (given that they can’t change it all in a day). Whether there is Institutional short covering, or major Options expiry, it doesn’t matter it will all show up in the charts and at the end of each day we get to reassess the buying and selling pressure and make new projections for tomorrow.

I have a sneaky suspicion that it is not fundamentals that pushes price where it does but rather that they are merely the vehicle that allows price to move within the bounds of parameters that can be determined by recent price action(OHLC) except of course in exceptional circumstances, but I bet then it still behaves within a standard deviation of the boundaries of allowable movement…… but of course I can’t prove that.

I like the colourful ambience provided by the cut and thrust of rumour, opinion and news releases, but to make a profit I trade much better when I turn off the news, stay away from other opinions and become totally immersed in passionless world of raw data. Perhaps it’s just me but try as I might to remain objective, I find it difficult to not be influenced by these extraneous factors. They get into my psyche and it filters out the bits that support the opinions and expectations I try not to have. I try to approach the market having no expectation of market direction or price behaviour, and let the data build a picture of the projected price range for the coming day.

Hell, That’s probably 5 cents worth, I better shut this rambling up

Cheers…………….merry