EUR/USD possibly completing an intraday inverted head and shoulder bottom and focus is on 1.5569/94 resistance.

Break of which will suggest that a near term bottom is in place in EUR/USD and stronger rebound should then be seen.

Attached Images

 

hi there Bibi..
i have been holding soggy longs for a while now. i mainly am scalping 30-40 pips mostly. looking forward to 5585 region to go short with tight stops. and may reverse if i see a 4 hr close above 5585-5600..
i have placed charts but overall, around 5585 longs should be lightened out.

Melbgirl......... I'm stuck as well on yen shrots avg now 104.90 and not been able to make any rational decision but looking forward to or to wait for euro to hit 5685 and see the retrace from there and if that happens could see yen testing back to 103.65 are whcih i would love to see either today or by tomorrow max.
not too heavy but i certaily dont want to see yen peeking above 105.75...

Attached Files

Fiber.doc (228.0 KB, 111 views)

__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

Hi Stryker, nice to hear from you!

Yes it's a bit tedious with the yen but somehow I thought the picture was much clearer than in the major pairs, so I am still hopeful and as today they (the crosses) were soggy regardless of everything going for them, we may see some progress soon. Watch out for AUD/JPY as they are talking about some AUD redemptions, so I added two shorts at the 9820s.

Good luck everyone

Market gets quiet. And in general, low volatility means a low yen. If there is a place where I am bullish for dollars, its against the yen.
The EUR USD move proved to be a 30 point blip. Argh. I'm outta here.
Good luck

I can understand. I went short USD/JPY in low 103s. I got a false signal from my charts. I kept the short on while going longin mid 104s. Short term bullish on this pair, but long term bearish. From my experience USD in bullish seasonal time frame.

That's interesting, I never knew that. I entered into those trades after the USD/JPY put on a very lacklustre recovery from Monday's lows, but since then it's looking stronger. I am planning to exit them and keep perhaps the GBP/JPY ones, as the pound looks like the next USD, very unloved at the moment.

Imagine no volatility. The carry trade would be the best thing to do, since you dont run any currency risk. Imagine high volatility: the JPY rises 5 or 10 percent in a single month: your interest gain of 7 percent per year could get lost in one month. Risk appetite flourishes in a low volatility environment.
NZD dropping fast over the past few days. Maybe some yen covering from there.
And since this is a EUR USD forum: EUR USD goes nowhere fast.
Good luck.

I understand your frustration sooo well.. geez, another blip. currently long at 5440. eurusd is becoming a range trade habit... Still bullish on eur tho..
Happy trading!

Yep, frustrating and I think this sums it all up well:

22:43 EUR/USD: Opens Lower In Asia After Choppy/Confusing Trading Day Sydney, May 16: The EUR/USD opens the Asian session a bit lower than where it did yesterday despite better than expected EZ data, worse than expected US data, a rise in European yields and an easing in US yields. The EUR/USD failed on a few occasions to establish a foothold above 1.5500 and with the market holding a longer-term view that the EUR/USD has topped out, it found excuses to sell the EUR/USD into the US close. The EUR/USD was hampered by heavy unwinding of EUR/JPY despite the fact that investor risk appetite appears to be on the rise with Wall Street closing higher and the VIX index closing at seven month lows.
Analysts note that recent correlations between asset markets have faded or broken down. Besides the EUR/JPY trading lower despite the apparent rise in risk appetite it is also noted that the EUR/USD moved lower despite a strong rise in gold and divergent moves in bond yields that normally would have spurred EUR/USD buying. Some analysts suggest that the price action indicates a strong change in sentiment towards the EUR/USD with the prevailing view that the EUR/USD has topped around 1.60 and is set for deeper corrections lower. Hourly support has formed at 1.5420 and a break below would increase downward pressure. The EUR/USD trades 1.5451/56. --John.Noonan@thomson.com

Oh and perhaps THIS is why the EUR will go up when we least expect it. My gut feeling (not a technical analysis) is that we haven't seen the top yet or at least will revisit the highs.

Hmm...I guess when I've had enough of nursing my shorts and bail out of them that's when they will go down nicely...story of last two years LOL

And this is interesting too:

00:56 NEWS: Dealers Say Recent FX Moves, USD Buys On G7 100-Day Rule Tokyo, May 16. The talk in Tokyo today revolves around the G7 so-called 100-day rule which might explain recent currency movements and divergence from up-to-now established trends and correlations. The Reuters Japanese language service put out a piece on this yesterday evening. The gist is that US funds, facing more stringent fiscal year or half-year reporting deadlines in June have been paring down risk assets, including short USD positions. Dealers in the know suggest that the positions in question are not limited to USD shorts but those taken in stock and bond markets, and that these positions adjustments are resulting in, among other things, recent USD moves higher. Paring of long, medium and short- term carry trades look to be taking place as well ahead of the end-June deadline. According to the Reuters piece, the fact that such moves are taking place this month, ahead of the deadline, makes very good sense and is confirmation of the effects of this 100-day rule. The rule itself is one of four recommendations made at the April G7, and involves having to set risk asset designations within 100-days, thereby the "100-day rule". -- Haruya.Ida@thomsonreuters.com

Here are my trades for the downleg of eurjpy and what I think is a reversal. That may be premature but worth a shot. The long is 161.85 with the stop at 161.43. The downleg was worth 80 pips after spread.

It seems like it was premature a bit and you were probably stopped out...perhaps you want to reload a bit lower? We might see 160.80.

I went long at 161.45 but still holding short usd/jpy and aud/jpy trades.

any idea how the forming eur/usd triangle will break towards...down ?

It can break up also. Triangle formatin can be broken in both ways. But if we look at gold which advanced 20 usd tdy and crude at highest level ever would recon that there is good chance for up, but u can't be too sure?

I m feed up with this fu***ing range because I m geting killed in every trade I open. Long, short etc... Blah.. Can't wait for breakout in any direction to give us a bit more clear direction.