It is not going to happen.

The fact that Europe has had high fuel cost for years and has had high MPG diesels puts them in a position where they can't improve much to offset the increase in fuel cost. The US has not had high fuel prices and has not had high MPG diesels. So it can go to the new diesels that are on there way for 2009 and 2010 models. They also have the Railroad industry stepping up to make deliveries cost less. With the Congress in US waking up to the fact they need to open the ANWR and offshore drilling, additional supply will be coming. The post war boom also will happen as the Iraqi situation improves. The USD will fly as high as the RED WHITE AND BLUE flag l"".

Well, forget about the patriotism blindness rantings. The Eur will come down but not to the level you think. EU is getting bigger,more countries from the eastern block are joining in. Europe will have economy as big as the US bfore we know it.I know truth hurts,but my prediction is that the best ever USD can do from now on is 1.10

Gino are you saying that USD will not get stronger than 1.10? If so is that shown by charting or just opinion?

It's my opinion based on the reality of the way it's going in Europe.READ my post again.

we didnt get the close above 5666 but it was close so now kind sir where does this leave you analysis?
Thank you

Euro fail to break above 1.5700.
It will expected to drop toward 1.5562 and then further towards 1.5435 for short term stop will be above 1.5740 for this bearish scenario.
Technical picture looks bearish
Note: break above 1,5700 and thirty minute close above 1.5700 then 1.5700 will be bullish for short time
Eur/Gbp

eur/gbp technically look like to be drop towards intially 0.7850 then 0.7670.

This is just a idea.

Regards

Aslam Chaudhary
m16ch1@yahoo.com

Attached Images

 

The consolidation of currencies into a common unit is nothing new. The fact that the world is getting smaller and we share common interest is why it is happening. The desire of Hong Kong to be the world banking center is another reason why consolidation is occuring. The posiblity of China being the strongest economy in the future is real. The rest of us have to consolidate currencies to stave off the take over. The trade and military alliances are the forerunners of currency mergers. The GCC is forming a common currency that will align with probably the USD and the EUR for stability of an economic and military mature. The ending event for consolidation will be the point where world economies are in balance which may or may not ever happen. But the strength of the combining currencies will be insured as competition realizes they have to deal with an equal or stronger group of currencies. Since the USD is tied to the US economy, and the US economy is tied to other economies by trade, military and friendship it has the upper hand in surviving the ups and downs of those currencies not as well positioned.

Hi there Cody B.. first of all don't trade what others are talking about. you have no idea what they are looking for in terms of gains and losses.
i don't superwises trade. i simply post what im doing or maybe intention of doing...
if you look at the last 4 hr close, it is bearish with a spinning top... if you are familiar with candles, it means a drop in euro to come or simply a very short term top has been made.
however, i would be picking longs with entry waiting at 5633, i have a TL pointing at 5628 (2 of them) on a 4 hrs, but another one rt above it at 5651 is already broken...
now if 5628 doesnot holds, it will not be good for longs at all as per the charts..
i have mild entries and stops are various with most close by to reduce the losses...
personally on such candle formation, i dont pick entries, but a break higher then 5630 leaving me no option....
the bright of such spinning tops are if broken, then we sail far.. from here on 5710 is next big hurdle followed by resis strectched from 5730-50 which is not to be taken lightly.. bigger tgts are aroudn 5795.......

__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

Islam I see your point for as bearish scenario. I'm not so sure that a horse shoe will not form to test 160 again though? In intra day trading this formation occurs quite often. On the dailies we seem to have turned some what bullish. Higher highs and higher lows. The pressure on the USD seems to great for the eur to get weak right now. The JPY crosses setting up for a big rally and gold back from the recent sell off fundamentally is in favor of the EUR. Warren buffets comments helped to. If we hit 157.54 tonight long would be preferred on the dips. With the sell off of the DOW today, London traders tonight may sell of the USD some more. The way the FED is acting thinking everyone is stupid only fuels the fire. The dollar is on the verge of collapse and everyone around the world knows it. The injection of funds into institutions it has no business in was the telling tape. It will only work for short term relief. The only way in history any economy has recovered from such moves is for a total collapse of the economy.The FED knows this and so does Bin laden. There just buying time thats all. This isn't a bad thing don,t get me wrong. Its healthy and has happened time after time over the centuries.Spring has always been a good time of year for growth as we've seen in the last month. But once October's numbers for Sept are revealed the Dollar will become very weak. This is historically the case. Buy winter when the crops are all picked and we have to wait until spring for the new planting season prices will be unbearable for a lot of financially strapped people with mortgages to the hilt. Just my little take on fundamental reasons why I think the dollar cant sustain these levels without some drastic measures in foreign affairs.

thats all I was looking for was where you had your TL's, you seem to have a very good knack for placing them well...again thanks

Since USD/JPY still didn't break out of its recent range, there is a possibility that both EUR/USD and GBP/USD will go lower today even if just as an inside trading day, but I think it's relatively safe to buy the dips if they occur perhaps around the Eurozone data releases.

The market made it loud and clear yesterday that it wants to take those pairs higher, also AUD was supportive and no bad news could stand in the way. Ignoring the importance of recent price action can surely lose us a lot of money.

Stryker, what levels do you think would be good for entering long Yen trades if any at all? I think USD/JPY is about to break 103.40 probably today or tomorrow.

it has already broken below and looking good below 103.70.. should be hitting the mark around 102.60.. that is if it doesnot decide to bounce back from rt above 103.

i have taken long single lot from 5636 and another waiting at 5630. stops are very tight at 5614 but might chop them if it falls below 5624....
looking for initially a retest to 5671 and would decide what to do later.
first thing first we need to get there.

GL ALL.

__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

i would be leaving for a better part of the day..
anyways i have palced charts. importantly 5620-35 regions need to stay intact for the rally to find decent resis around 5735-50... 5790-5810 would be extreme tgt but dount it very much...
below 562-35 we have 5590 followed by 5440..
i have long in and sicne i will be leaving i have placed a short order at 5618.
no limits for now, but hoping to see that shorts are not triggered.

GL ALL.........

Attached Files

fIBER.doc (439.0 KB, 50 views)

__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

Yen has a lot of catching up to do. just wait for the carry trades to falter or as you mentioned reluctance of the BIG DOW to close above 13,000..
yen is looking good on chart only prob is that why the rally seems to be running out of steam and the same applies for the EURO as well.
this makes me skeptical unless there are some big fundies on the way as i will be honest i have totally paying any attention to fundies but tot he FOMC and the NFP offcourse.

anyways technically shorts would have been in around 103.60-75.
For late joiners like myself would be around 103.40-50.
tgts are healthy around 102.25-35 but not b4 we have a stubborn supp might pop around 102.60-70.......
happy hunting....

Attached Files

YEN.doc (372.0 KB, 54 views)

__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...