|
|
 |
|
07-09-2008, 09:26 PM
|
 |
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 5
|
|
EURUSD Trader greetings
Greetings fellow traders, i don't know why my previous post didn't post but here i go again. I have been trading the EURUSD now since November 2, 2007 and have managed to squeek out a 485% profit. My system is not perfect but averages more wins than losses. Have traded everything from stocks, futures and now currencies and am having a ball! I am impressed by the quality of traders on this forum  Currently i am in a short trade 12 contracts from 1.5737. We shall see if i get my butt kicked, lol. |
07-09-2008, 09:29 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 7
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guilder
Hi all. It looks bid, and if we close here at 1.5735 (cannot see ANY reason for EUR USD to move another 5 pips today..... ) I think we will see higher levels tomorrow. Still, dont expect too much. 1,5800 looks nice to sell again. This market is so boring, that even my posts are boring! Wish yenom was here... he always made me laugh. Though I dont think he intended to do so.... 
I quit, for now.
Nice eve, bye |
For me, I do not see any reason for EUR/USD moving up 1,8 in some days. I'm expecting it will be back to 156x as Oil and Gold falling in hours. |
07-10-2008, 12:17 AM
|
 |
Member
|
|
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 232
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by terton
Hi - I'm Frank, how are you?
The euro/dollar's status is that the 23.6% level retracement from Nov-05 is at 15000. More probable for a fourth wave (EW) is the 38.2% retracement at 14350. It would be extremely rare for the euro to hold any flat in a fourth wave, and it certainly is not a second wave.
If we calculate from the second 1-2 pattern low from Oct-06, the wave is completed at 16000. A correction from a fifth wave is never a flat. 14680 is implied as a minimum (38.2) on that cycle, even though the top of the fourth is at 15000.
Seven-week momentum has just turned negative again, opening up the possibility that the pair is in the final phases of the correction from the ATH. I must respectfully disagree with Jamie Saettele that 16000 will be breached.
15300 will be breached.
In the shorter term, 15755 could hold as a 50% retracement from 15900, with the second wave pullback completed. A break below 15610 will confirm that the fall to 15300 and lower is occuring.
In fact, Gann angle supports lie presently close to spot at 15709, 15650 and 15557. Daily momentum is negative. However, if a bounce occurs to finish the second wave pullback, 61.8% would give a great shorting opp at 15793. We have not yet seen a good upper shadow on 2hr candlesticks so a further pullback is quite possible. 15830 gives Gann angle resistance and a 76.4% retracement, though historical resistance is lower at 15780, suggesting a conclusion at or before 61.8% (15793). Refer to attached.
 |
Great post, helped me see some things i didn't see before. Cheers mate.
|
07-10-2008, 12:23 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 153
|
|
|
Here is a chart from my side...
Bearish against 1.5780.
Looking for a move to 1.5550~1.5600.
|
07-10-2008, 01:00 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 232
|
|
EUR/USD looks to be in vise of sorts, capped above by sovereign offering interest around 1.5750 and bids just below 1.5700. It traded a 1.5717-46 range in Asia, moving off its early highs on talk of the sovereign offers topside. Dealers believe some of this selling effort may be related to the intervention undertaken by many central banks in the region this week, mostly of a USD selling nature. The thinking is that they are also paring down EUR-denominated reserves in favor of local currency purchases. Bidding interest below looks to be more fundamental based. Hawkish comments from ECB President Trichet yesterday still resonate (he voiced concerns over secondary inflation pressures), and this contrasts with the dovish shift in expectations for the Fed. EUR/USD currently trades 1.5722/25. --Haruya.Ida@thomsonreuters.com |
07-10-2008, 02:55 AM
|
|
|
|
could be done
As an update to my earlier posting, we now have a spike or upper shadow on the 2 hour charts. We have also fulfilled the minimum for a minute c-wave (EW) upward retracement in this bearish flat or flag, if you prefer.
Please see attached chart, with the Gann angles crying out to be broken.
Last edited by terton; 07-28-2008 at 06:27 PM..
|
07-10-2008, 04:51 AM
|
 |
Technical Trader
|
|
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 1,942
|
|
|
well, starting latr on the day to find 5753-60 entries are honored.
even initil tgt for 2 lots met at 5713. holding 2 for now with stops at breakeven. limit for next one is at 5661 and open on the last one...
GL ALL
__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
|
07-10-2008, 07:15 AM
|
 |
Member
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 177
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by stryker
well, starting latr on the day to find 5753-60 entries are honored.
even initil tgt for 2 lots met at 5713. holding 2 for now with stops at breakeven. limit for next one is at 5661 and open on the last one...
GL ALL
|
Hi stryker, don't you think that 1.5661 is a little to low? There is a TL at 1.5665 right now, lows June 13 at 1.5302 and July 8 at 1.5634.
Below is a weekly chart for crude, there is nothing special about the ongoing correction. I expect oil to make new highs in the near future, tomorows trade balance and Michigan confidence to be dismal and therefore a retest of 1.59 and maybe a break above. (of corse one has to consider everything else, but I don't see anything that would be in the way, but then again, what do I know...)
What do you guys and girls think ?
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/crude.php |
07-10-2008, 07:40 AM
|
 |
Member
|
|
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,654
|
|
|
Where's everyone today... so quiet....
I miss the comical comment from fxaprendiz (did I spell it right).
No more beautiful butterfly and bat?
|
07-10-2008, 08:05 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 120
|
|
Allright allright, i'll entertain you a bit then, posting the probably most complex harmonic pattern formation in the 5min chart ever.  Sorry but i was bored, so i simply drawed everything i was seeing. The current upmove is a result of the small bullish bat with B=0.5XA. As you can see many scenarios possible, however i think reversal from around 1.5753 is most probable, since we have been rejected from the resistance area around 1.5753-1.5761 earlier in this session.
We will see in a few min as the pair actually approaches 1.5732 atm....
Not so confident about these formations yet, as i am pretty new to the field of harmonic patterns, so as always: COMMENTS PLS!
/Salsa
Last edited by Salsaprince; 07-10-2008 at 08:07 AM..
Reason: typo
|
07-10-2008, 08:15 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,654
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Salsaprince
Allright allright, i'll entertain you a bit then, posting the probably most complex harmonic pattern formation in the 5min chart ever. Sorry but i was bored, so i simply drawed everything i was seeing. The current upmove is a result of the small bullish bat with B=0.5XA. As you can see many scenarios possible, however i think reversal from around 1.5753 is most probable, since we have been rejected from the resistance area around 1.5753-1.5761 earlier in this session.
We will see in a few min as the pair actually approaches 1.5732 atm....
Not so confident about these formations yet, as i am pretty new to the field of harmonic patterns, so as always: COMMENTS PLS!
/Salsa |
Only fxaprendiz is qualified to give comment on harmonic pattern trading style. He is the guru
I am interested to see the different trading system's point of view, and where the system predicts the price will move.
Price action makes me sleepy now. |
07-10-2008, 09:21 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 120
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Salsaprince
Allright allright, i'll entertain you a bit then, posting the probably most complex harmonic pattern formation in the 5min chart ever. Sorry but i was bored, so i simply drawed everything i was seeing. The current upmove is a result of the small bullish bat with B=0.5XA. As you can see many scenarios possible, however i think reversal from around 1.5753 is most probable, since we have been rejected from the resistance area around 1.5753-1.5761 earlier in this session.
We will see in a few min as the pair actually approaches 1.5732 atm....
Not so confident about these formations yet, as i am pretty new to the field of harmonic patterns, so as always: COMMENTS PLS!
/Salsa |
Update on this strategy. The smaller bearish gartley and butterfly formed around 1.5728-1.5732 area, stalling the upmove a bit but not really provoking a reversal. When move continued north, my two shorts triggered at 1.5753 and 1.5758, which i am currently hedging from 1.5761. Next short will trigger at 1.5782. SL on all shorts 1.583. Tight trailing stop on hedge long of 20 pips...
Chart will be there in a sec.
/Salsa
EDIT: Third short triggered. Still even as i actually pre-hedged the third short Will close hedge when reversal takes place.
Last edited by Salsaprince; 07-10-2008 at 09:44 AM..
|
07-10-2008, 09:41 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 120
|
|
The 5min chart. 15min and 5min stochastics are overbought, 30min getting there. reversed hammers forming in 15min and 30min. Bearish anyone?
EDIT: Now WITH the chart.... duh |
07-10-2008, 09:49 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,654
|
|
|
Salsa Prince, nice job. Very quick!
I put in short too @1.5784, with tight stop loss above 1.58. But is EUR up move sustainable without retracing again?
|
07-10-2008, 09:52 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,654
|
|
|
1.58 is in grief danger!
|
|
|
| Thread Tools |
|
|
| Rate This Thread |
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is On
|
|
|
|
