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05-10-2007, 09:57 AM
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Euro Reverses after ECB
Trichet did exactly what the market expected - he kept rates unchanged, brought back the word vigilant - yet the EUR/USD tanked. What is behind this crazy move?
Seems like his hesitancy about signaling futures moves beyond the one expected in June is leading to some overall profit taking. Also, this morning's US jobless claims number was VERY STRONG. Further weakness in the EUR/USD should probably be limited at this point. We are sitting right at the lower bollinger band. Tomorrow we have US retail sales and PPI - which could be ugly.
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05-10-2007, 01:01 PM
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Shorted the EUR/USD this morning at 9am EDT at 1.3515 and just closed out with a 31 pip profit. Just had a 15 pip drop over past 10 minutes..we're at a level we haven't reached since 4/13. I agree, if US data come out miserable tomorrow we could see a move again to the upside since we are still over 100 pips away from real support
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05-10-2007, 06:59 PM
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Yes, I would also add that fundamentals "should" and can ruin any technical moves (not always). Thats why I believe fundamentals drive the long term, while techs drive the short term. I guess we all know that. But to say that the wave 5/3 could quickly turn in the opposite direction. So watch out for the econ data tomorrow; w/ some negative articles about retail sales out there today, I wouldn't be surprised if the number was weaker than expected.
Alex Kazmarck
http://spoteuro.blogspot.com |
05-11-2007, 04:00 AM
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In my opinion, the USD will not rebound in a short period of time.
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05-11-2007, 10:14 AM
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by alexkazmarck
Yes, I would also add that fundamentals "should" and can ruin any technical moves (not always). Thats why I believe fundamentals drive the long term, while techs drive the short term. I guess we all know that. But to say that the wave 5/3 could quickly turn in the opposite direction. So watch out for the econ data tomorrow; w/ some negative articles about retail sales out there today, I wouldn't be surprised if the number was weaker than expected.
Alex Kazmarck
http://spoteuro.blogspot.com |
Looks like you caught that spot on regarding retail sales. I think the only way the story will stick, however, is if we see a repeat of this news next month. It will be interesting to see how much the dollar will weaken over the course of the day, especially as the technicals seem to be fighting for a dollar rally. |
05-11-2007, 11:37 AM
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It's interesting to see the USDCAD still performing well. We can attribute that to the economic ties between the two countries though. I wonder how far it will go . One thing I hate in this game is that the time for the USD to make a higher move comes amid such bad econ data. Is the crowd confused or are funds taking profit? This has to be technical. There are worreis that China's possible slowdown can lead to lower commodity prices, hurting CAD, and a spill over from the US - do we account for 80% of their exports??? Is that the latest number? But w/ energy still high, there are many more technical reasons for the move higher. Any thoughts...? I want to enter a long position but worried that its just another short term profit taking before we get back below 1.11. Maybe it will range before heading higher.
Alex Kazmarck
http://spoteuro.blogspot.com
Last edited by alexkazmarck; 05-11-2007 at 11:40 AM..
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05-11-2007, 01:36 PM
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by alexkazmarck
It's interesting to see the USDCAD still performing well. We can attribute that to the economic ties between the two countries though. I wonder how far it will go . One thing I hate in this game is that the time for the USD to make a higher move comes amid such bad econ data. Is the crowd confused or are funds taking profit? This has to be technical. There are worreis that China's possible slowdown can lead to lower commodity prices, hurting CAD, and a spill over from the US - do we account for 80% of their exports??? Is that the latest number? But w/ energy still high, there are many more technical reasons for the move higher. Any thoughts...? I want to enter a long position but worried that its just another short term profit taking before we get back below 1.11. Maybe it will range before heading higher.
Alex Kazmarck
http://spoteuro.blogspot.com |
I've seen various figures for CAD exports...more recently 77%. As far as USDCAD goes, I think USD is WAY overdue for a serious bout of strength, but against CAD it will probably range 1.10-1.12 for a while first. I'm with you on the revenge trade though, I'm just dying to go long. Before considering going into USDCAD, I'm going to wait for employment data. It's really the only piece of Canadian data that really gets the pair moving. We have Canadian CPI out next week though, so I'm going to keep an eye on that.
Last edited by Terri Belkas; 05-11-2007 at 01:39 PM..
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05-11-2007, 05:26 PM
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[IMG]  [/IMG] |
05-13-2007, 07:48 AM
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picture
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05-14-2007, 08:46 AM
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Summerset
Update:-
So Last week I've accumlated 3545/55/65/75 to 40% of a 10% position size. This week I will close the 3575/65 at 3670 (or close i-day highs) when seen to compensate for the -ve premuims on the trade.
I will double my holdings at 3545/55- (after releasing the 3565/75 lots). And will attempt to accumlate aggressively to full 10% between 3545--> 3480. Stops below 3450.
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Last week accumlated 3488/95/05/25/35/45 to a full 100% of position now. Position average is 3534. I will take partial 50% of profits @ 3630. Leave 50% as open targets.
Position average is 3534.
I will hedge down from 3630.
And will add to replace liquidated longs between 3420 & 3450.
Still see strongly that the retraction will be mild, and that 3420-50 will probably not be seen.
Furthermore, Wave 5 on weekly will unfold to 4050 at least.
Trade managment is as per attached PDF.
__________________
Sincere Regards
Summerset
______________________________
* If you have a positive view towards what you are reading. Don’t take that to mean that you should follow it. It could PROVE ALL WRONG. If you have a negative view towards it, then CERTAINLY you won’t bother with it. If you have no idea what its talking about, then please DON’T EXPERIMENT with it !! ! …In SHORT, what THIS disclaimer is telling you IS :-
TRADERS TRADE AT THEIR OWN PERIL – PERIOD
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05-15-2007, 08:43 AM
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Trade Amendments
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Summerset
Last week accumlated 3488/95/05/25/35/45 to a full 100% of position now. Position average is 3534. I will take partial 50% of profits @ 3630. Leave 50% as open targets.
I will hedge down from 3630.
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Based on an elaborate re-calculation of current wave volatility count, I will amend target to become 3835 for full 100% of position. I will not take any partial profits (cancel 3630)- neither will I hedge at 3630. There will be no need, as it will be counter trend & shallow dips.
My forecast is for the next wave to take us 381 pts from the low already made @ 3463 = 1.3844.
Profitable Trading
__________________
Sincere Regards
Summerset
______________________________
* If you have a positive view towards what you are reading. Don’t take that to mean that you should follow it. It could PROVE ALL WRONG. If you have a negative view towards it, then CERTAINLY you won’t bother with it. If you have no idea what its talking about, then please DON’T EXPERIMENT with it !! ! …In SHORT, what THIS disclaimer is telling you IS :-
TRADERS TRADE AT THEIR OWN PERIL – PERIOD
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05-15-2007, 08:56 AM
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Have we settled into a longterm trading range?
It looks to me that until the Fed raises rates we have settled into a trading range between 1.3450 -1.3650, which is aproximately the cureent support 2 and resistance 2 numbers, therefore I would look to buy on the low and sell on the high of this range with the current trendline number 1.3580 as your base number.
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05-15-2007, 11:01 AM
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We tend to agree. Until and unless we get some change in the fundamentals we appear to be range bound in the pair. On the US side only a slip into recession pulls the dollar lower, on the euro side the consumer MUST wake up in order for the ECB to go beyond 4%.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by JBR22
It looks to me that until the Fed raises rates we have settled into a trading range between 1.3450 -1.3650, which is aproximately the cureent support 2 and resistance 2 numbers, therefore I would look to buy on the low and sell on the high of this range with the current trendline number 1.3580 as your base number.
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05-16-2007, 12:49 PM
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Hi
16 May-The Euro (EUR) gained against the USD on the back of softer CPI from the US and a better-than-expected GDP result. Eurozone GDP for Q1 came in at +0.6% compared to a 0.5% market consensus. Overall the EUR traded with a range of a low 1.3527 and a high of 1.3610 before closing the day at 1.3589 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Eurozone CPI is due out today with an expectation of a 1.8% result compared to 1.9% previously.
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05-16-2007, 05:38 PM
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Next Stop for Euro
Ugly daily close has Lower Swing Hi with it failing to eclipse 3628 previous level. 3467 possible bounce but real support at 3380 area. 6 Hr chart was classic Bull Trap rallied to 3551 Resist and failed miserably.
Dailies in sell mode however higher up charts not quite ready to roll over of course they take longer.
Next four 6 hr candles should be interesting as the Move Higher yesterday has been reversed.
Euchre
Disclaimer Trading Currencies involves risk. Any opinion, research, analyses, prices, or other information is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice.
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