Thanks jackclown for the chart, I remember how accurate you were in the past with your forcast. Your chart speaks to me. EW theories are just not appealing to me as you can apply any count to any situation after the fact and they can be changed at any moment amd to any change in price action. Maybe I'm just not bright enough to understand EW theories.

CodyB, when and where (at which price will you go short the EUR ?

Price action alone will determine that.

If you look at the fundimentals for the Euro alone they do not support the euro at these levels. The market and the media have taken an interest in the dollar fundis and they have gotten the share of the spotlight to this point.

At some point soon we will begin to hear of the bank failiars in the eurozone and the housing problems they too are facing on a scale in some countries much larger than those in the USA. When we begin to see those,then the truth of the eurozone problems will become more spotlighted and we will see the market correction for all of these things take place.

These things will happen far faster IMO then some are willing to admit.

everytime the euro heads up people start talking 1.65 to 1.7 and when it drops 200 to 300 pips those same people start calling for 1.52 and below....

look at the LEADING indicators of the markets and they will soon begin to point down. I am a euro bear until the fundimentals from the eurozone tell me otherwise and the rate hike in the long run will hurt them more than it will help and this too will be seen before years end. Why do you think there were so many major players FROM the euro zone calling for a NO HIKE when hey actually raised the rate?

Right now everything is focused on the dollar and thats why we are at these levels. The truth will soon become apparent and we will see the euro where it belongs and that is FAR from the levels it is right now.

The feds mouth pieces have once more talked rate hike and this time if they do not and do not soon then we may very well see the euro at 1.63 and above, that will also be the point when the ECB will HAVE to look at taking back that rate hike. Its all in the fundimentals.

take all this for whats its worth and trade it as you see it day by day.

All this to me says euro bear, that does not mean dollar bull by any means, there is a difference.

there is nothing to supprt a dollar bull at all, we have just began to see the problems in this country also but we have a small headstart on the euro that has not yet shown the truth the depths of its problems really are.

I must say thanks to all for Great Charts and Evaluation Comentary on this delimma we are in at this point in time on the oil and euro correlation?

We still have to look at the US Printing Press still in the high mode of Dollars. It will have to print Billions yet to save the banking institutions from a melt down which would hit all economies around the world? So I do NOT see a rate hike in Aug? It will take place later in the year as they want to keep the economy going at a slow pace? Feds are already seizing banks in the US as I type. This is in the first stage of bank failures due to the sub-prime melt down.

Anyway, that is just my thoughts for this crazy market and politics!!!

Since I'm basically Techy Trader, here is my weekly Trades for this up coming week!!! Minus my Scalping along the way, at which was a very very good last week!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Going by 5 13 62 trading method, I will place my orders as follows...

Open Long @1.57196 (with a 60 TP 40 pip SL)
Open Short @1.56236 (with a 60 TP 40 pip SL)

If the Long hits first? move Short up to 1.56856
If the Short hits first? move Long down to 1.56596

Moving limits risk and maximizes return!!!!!!!!!

Normally I use at least an 80 pip TP Stop, and a 30 pip SL, but with this erratic market I will use a 60 pip TP stop, and a 40 pip SL due to such erratic up's and downs! I had to do this last week watching when I could due to business I had to take care of. Glad I did because it just fell short on the long and was able to take profit before it turned.

All these orders are checked with a very good software I use to see if they correlate with the 5 13 62 TL's

All these orders are just my tech Long and Short?

Please use your own judgement if you check the charts for my trading method!

Any comments welcome!!!!!!! Hope is explained right, have a brain and finger typing correlation problem! LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

caps out...and may all your trades go well!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks Cmellon for the explanation.
I am tempted to go long to the 5820-50 area and then short. Maybe I'll wait for the first move to see what happens and then jump in.
Everything tells me, long, then short. But let's see.

Im currently locked into a heavy short at 1.5680 and feeling the -30 pip burn, Please advise any comments appreciated. margin is good for some days, just how long, or get out!? Thanks in advance

I don't agree that Trichet will take back that rate hike. He hiked because of inflation presures that are HUGE and well above perdicted ones. Target inflation was around 2% and now.. huh it's well above it (almolst double). That's why rate hike is .. hopefully it'll hold down coming inflation presures. And if they take it off.. huh... can not imagine? They waited for inflation data for over 6 months to be in readeing which would force them to raise rates. And if you look to states, then you can see that they are hoping for fundies to alow them a hike and they will do it as soon as posssible. That is the main reason for $ strenght lately and of course bad data from EU zone. For me it's time to buy $ as high as possible, because after a long time, fundies are on USD side.

We could expect inflation coming down a bit in next month (oiil is lower, wheat, oats... all lower... even gold is lower), but rate cut? Can't imagine.

There is no way Trichet will reverse that rate hike anytime soon, as to take this course of action will be a severe dent on their credibility.

Cody B, You will know when the ECB are taking a more dovish stance as they will communicate this clearly to the market months in advance of cutting, as they did with the recent rate hike - which was a 100% forgone conclusion, known to everyone, following Trichet's comments in June.

And remember, inflationary pressures are still severe, despite the recent fall in commodity prices and slowing economic activity in the eurozone. It will take months of sustained falls in commodity prices for this to feed into the real economy and ease price pressure and, more important, inflationary expectations.

nothing was said about taking it back soon or anytime soon but it will happen

You're right, it, and much else, will happen, given a long enough time horizon. In the same way BOE will cut rates, most probably in an aggressive fashion to counter probable negative growth. On a side note, I think the BOE will be the first to cut this side of the pond.

I interpreted from the wording in your mail regarding the Fed and ECB that you are expecting the scenario you highlight to play out soon? I don't see the ECB cutting this year, and will most probably keep rates on hold until Q1 2009, given the current outlook on growth and inflation. Also, I very much doubt the ECB will cut purely because EURUSD is trading at 1.63. Obviously a lot can and will happen between now and then. But as I said before the ECB will kindly inform us all in advance of their intentions. They ALWAYS make sure the market knows what to expect on decision day for interest rates.

However, I am in agreement with your synopsis of a stronger dollar versus euro in the coming months, not because I am particularly a fan of the greenback or optimistic on the outlook for the US economy, but more connected with there being greater downside risks to economic growth in the eurozone and the UK. In my humble opinion, the economic storm has yet to fully cross the Atlantic to European shores. But it is coming.

hi well i want to know something iam new in in forex
now eurousd is 1.5705 1.5710 what is posibble to be later
plz can u help me

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Wow, it was holding @1.5672 for a long time on that site?

A Glitch maybe?

no giltch, it has moved up and down all weekend and is now back to almost close price like it does most every weekend

hi smalscalps
its very cool strategy i see ou use 5 13 62 strategy but do you use some other indicators or oscilators except EMA ?

I watch it through out the weekend also, somtimes it does hold somewhat higher or lower?

Hope your trades go well!!!!!

caps out

there are not too many that can see this coming but I think we may see it quicker than some will admit, look at spain, italy, greece and france, these guys are in trouble

the ONE bright spot in ALL the eurozone right now is germany and they too from the lastest released fundis are beginning to feel the crunch started in america. This is one reason we in the USA will recover first IMHO for what its worth.

one other thing that is a fact, for the GLOBAL economy to recover the world needs a strong dollar, like it or not.