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09-18-2007, 11:36 AM
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Senior Member
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 460
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Celestial Signs
By the way, all indices rallying ahead of FOMC.
The King is calling for battle to defend USD at 1.3900-1.3950. I have Ben and Hanky behind me. I.E i AM SHORT EURO.
The King calls for 1 cuts (25 bp) with another 50 bp discount rate cut. However USD is not going to weaken much, contrary to what most are expecting.
Last edited by DollarPro; 09-18-2007 at 11:54 AM..
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09-18-2007, 01:45 PM
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Moderator
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Join Date: Jan 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by retired
Excellent point- Wall Street will recover if the Fed does not cut the rate.
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I disagree, unless we're talking on a 1-year horizon. Stocks would post incredible losses on a lack of a rate move, with the priced in probability of such an occurrence near 0.0%. |
09-18-2007, 02:23 PM
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 97
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David Rodriguez
I disagree, unless we're talking on a 1-year horizon. Stocks would post incredible losses on a lack of a rate move, with the priced in probability of such an occurrence near 0.0%.
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More shorted at 1.3960. Holy cow Batman! Fed cuts by 50- Helicopter Ben has lost all of my respect- I'm going all or nothing, doubled my short position. Going to 1.30. |
09-18-2007, 02:45 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 160
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Retired?
Isn't your trend on your chart saying Euro higher?? You either have to have a wide stop or patience bec. I am not seeing that and I dont want you to have to return to the workforce.
Euchre
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09-18-2007, 02:49 PM
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100 Post Club
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 876
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EURUSD about to pop the options barriers? What's next after 1.40? ... 1.50?
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09-18-2007, 03:14 PM
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Moderator
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Quote:
Originally Posted by retired
More shorted at 1.3960. Holy cow Batman! Fed cuts by 50- Helicopter Ben has lost all of my respect- I'm going all or nothing, doubled my short position. Going to 1.30.
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Helicopter Ben, indeed.
I think his reputation as a 'reasonable' central banker has taken a significant hit on the day, but it does serve to note that the vote to take rates 50bp lower was unanimous across the FOMC voters.
I'm on the exact opposite end of your trade. We'll see where we go from here. |
09-18-2007, 03:24 PM
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100 Post Club
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 876
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I have a phenomenal amount of respect for Mr Bernanke and indeed all at the Federal Reserve Bank. Often it must seem that they are damned if they do, damned if they don't ... I'll be damned if I could do any better!
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09-18-2007, 03:26 PM
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100 Post Club
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 876
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The only "economist" I believe in is the one that shows me the way now and what happened in the past ... my humble chart package. Oh! And the FXCM SSI is really growing on me too ...
Last edited by Black.day; 09-18-2007 at 03:28 PM..
Reason: SSI
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09-18-2007, 03:48 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 49
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Fed crushes those who believed they would stay on hold
Quote:
Originally Posted by retired
So you can take quotes from all the outside sources you want to support your views, but that won't change the views of the Fed when they meet next week. No doubt, the run to $1.3880 was a good one. Just be warned- there will be no rate cut.
"Pigs get slaughtered"
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Retired,
I hope you you've exited your trades. To me it seems very risky to hang on to your dollar bullish views. You can always try to set-up another short if you really want to from another favourable position.
Looks like the rate-cut camp was spot on and in fact the Fed didn't get influenced by the "no-cut" camp's arguments and your warnings turned out to be completely off line. |
09-18-2007, 03:54 PM
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Technical Trader
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 1,908
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took a beating on euppy shorts.........
able to pick a long on euro from 3921..
the day ended with -87 pips thanks to euppy....................
__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
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09-18-2007, 04:16 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DollarPro
Ok, I take it as a Fourth Sign.
The fifth Sign ? the sky roll back like a scroll.
Perhaps it is the Typhoon that is now approaching China, landing on Shanghai, it is one of those one mega size typhoon.
Now we are ready for the Sixth.
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Irrelevant to Trading. For a "Doomsday" sign to be valid, it must be viewable by all mankind to see. - Not a local incident.
Just a thought.
Peace
__________________
Sincere Regards
Summerset
______________________________
* If you have a positive view towards what you are reading. Don’t take that to mean that you should follow it. It could PROVE ALL WRONG. If you have a negative view towards it, then CERTAINLY you won’t bother with it. If you have no idea what its talking about, then please DON’T EXPERIMENT with it !! ! …In SHORT, what THIS disclaimer is telling you IS :-
TRADERS TRADE AT THEIR OWN PERIL – PERIOD
Last edited by Summerset; 09-18-2007 at 04:19 PM..
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09-18-2007, 04:21 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 175
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Greenspan on Fox Noise
Just saw Greenspan on Fox.. He said something interesting.. Noting that the Fed has access to information not accessable by the public.. for instance; currency intervention... hmmmmm.. is 1.40 protected by the forces of DollarPro.. or well.. lets just say protected...  |
09-18-2007, 04:51 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 97
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Quote:
Originally Posted by economist
Retired,
I hope you you've exited your trades. To me it seems very risky to hang on to your dollar bullish views. You can always try to set-up another short if you really want to from another favourable position.
Looks like the rate-cut camp was spot on and in fact the Fed didn't get influenced by the "no-cut" camp's arguments and your warnings turned out to be completely off line.
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If you want to play this game you better bring money. I'm down by several dollars but my sentiment remains as the long term target for the EURUSD holds well below 1.30. I'll hold for as long as I see fit, I'll add to my position as long as I see the EURO overvalued. It's a stretch to say the Fed crushed those holding long- in fact with the short pressure, it should have launched to 1.41 before 5PM. Its holding well.
I do admit, the 50 was a surprise. I had a feeling 25 was gaining momentum although I refused to believe it and it goes againt the grain of all logic. At the next meeting the Fed will be forced to RAISE the rate. Instead of holding steady an letting the markets do their work, the Fed steps in and cleans up the poop on the carpet- very unprofessional.
If it goes to 1.41, then perhaps I will cover some of my more recent positions. Going short GBPUSD tonight or tomorrow.
Last edited by retired; 09-18-2007 at 04:57 PM..
Reason: te
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09-18-2007, 05:05 PM
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Technical Trader
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 1,908
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fiber on charts.
on weekly we have a bit of resis at 3983, or where we stand.
then again higher after gobbling all the stops residing above 1.4 at 1.4033.
i took a small shorts at 3984 and standing order at 1.4030, stops above 1.4054........
if dollar got any groove on, it should be from aorund here.
__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
Last edited by stryker; 09-18-2007 at 05:12 PM..
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09-18-2007, 05:25 PM
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Moderator
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Instant Insight on Fed Rate Decision
If you haven't seen it already, here is the Instant Insight on the Fed Rate Decision |
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