|
|
 |
|
07-30-2008, 12:16 PM
|
 |
Member
|
|
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 197
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by trip00
i actually went long @5541  |
closed @5561. |
07-30-2008, 12:16 PM
|
 |
Member
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,459
|
|
|
Numbers are getting better in the news releases.
Does anyone have a DJ or SP500 wave count?
Watch oil and stock market to determine USD next move.
If Iran gets in to trouble watch the oil come up and hence the EUR.
Thanks.
|
07-30-2008, 12:41 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 36
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by b3nni
Baiscally the move negates the count that 5 waves are done and it seems you were right with a massive 3 rd wave down.
So if this is iii of 3 and i was 300 pips, then iii must be of equal lenghths or longer so a minimum target of iii = 1,5750- 300 = 15450 OR below for iii
|
Appreciate the acknowleging----
but it's less important "right or wrong" ----really best to deal in probabilities
EG. the iv (4th) wave overlap rule most strickly adheres to impulse waves (within a motive waves move)
--just more probable that the hrly count "overlap" negated the count.
London/eur session close pulling in some short covering REts --and possible for 5615 ( or a higher fib of today's range) will now be tested.
---61.8 @ 5579--for ex.
Altho still short, stay protected or light ---to add-on later
agree on low target, however.
``use combo of best tools---EW only one of several involving PA --fib time & price --key Tls --etc.
`` |
07-30-2008, 01:01 PM
|
 |
Member
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 177
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ilovepippin
Numbers are getting better in the news releases.
Does anyone have a DJ or SP500 wave count?
Watch oil and stock market to determine USD next move.
If Iran gets in to trouble watch the oil come up and hence the EUR.
Thanks.
|
If one would have unlimited funds, one would only have to take a huge position in EUR and then buy huge amounts of crude futures. Once the Euro is higher, one would have to dump the EUR and then dump the crude futures..
Sorry I'm still busy figuring out the Fibonacci thing, Elliot will be next. |
07-30-2008, 01:08 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 142
|
|
|
Well a highly uneventful day for me, was waiting for a sell @ 5660 but again I was left high and dry.
Closed my Yen position for a few pips profit.
Tomorrow I'll be looking for higher levels to sell at, quite possibly get in at 5612 depending on how asai session looks tonight.
Will load up on the longs if I get a chance in USDJPY
For all you still holding you longs from way up there, hope your still alive. Just remember this is a crazy market and ANYTHING can happen tomorrow......
GL all
B
|
07-30-2008, 01:35 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 17
|
|
|
UP?
EURUSD is already riding wave 1 of at least 3 UP - targets seem to be 1,5615 and 1,5700
pls, coment
|
07-30-2008, 01:42 PM
|
 |
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 138
|
|
|
I think we are whitnessing an intervention, like we saw in the 90s. Paulson already pointed out the possibility of an intervention earlier. I think the Fed's sold gold reserves in order to support the US Dollar.
If correct, then it's once again done at a very strategic moment in time. It doesn't have to be a short-term thing either, cause interventions can turn the world upside down, like was done in the nineties.
I am a huge gold fan and I can't deny that I am at least a bit worried.
|
07-30-2008, 01:46 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 147
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by StriderX
Appreciate the acknowleging----
but it's less important "right or wrong" ----really best to deal in probabilities
EG. the iv (4th) wave overlap rule most strickly adheres to impulse waves (within a motive waves move)
--just more probable that the hrly count "overlap" negated the count.
London/eur session close pulling in some short covering REts --and possible for 5615 ( or a higher fib of today's range) will now be tested.
---61.8 @ 5579--for ex.
Altho still short, stay protected or light ---to add-on later
agree on low target, however.
``use combo of best tools---EW only one of several involving PA --fib time & price --key Tls --etc.
``
|
Yes right or wrong - excuse my bad english skills - all I wanted to say is that yesterdays count favouring a bottom @ 1,5552 was not the *correct* count as it seems thus we were heading lower today.
Jamies alternate count says v might be in place already so no more further decline which sounds possible as well. Both his counts target 1,5750- 1,58 if I do understand this correct.
GL to all
see chart |
07-30-2008, 01:57 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 147
|
|
|
CL
.....the U.S. Energy Department reported the first decline in gasoline inventories in five weeks..... crude light now @ 126,7
so this was definately pulling up € as well
|
07-30-2008, 02:39 PM
|
 |
Member
|
|
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,495
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by b3nni
Yes right or wrong - excuse my bad english skills - all I wanted to say is that yesterdays count favouring a bottom @ 1,5552 was not the *correct* count as it seems thus we were heading lower today.
Jamies alternate count says v might be in place already so no more further decline which sounds possible as well. Both his counts target 1,5750- 1,58 if I do understand this correct.
GL to all
see chart |
I like Jamie's alternate count better. It seems the structure of the five waves is already complete. Here's why I think so:
1. Wave 3 is 1.236 Fib extension of wave 1 (which can be considered complete).
2. Wave 5 is almost 1.00 Fib extension of wave 1 (which can also be considered complete).
So I am favoring for ABC retracement starting now towards 1.5673 as wave A (61.8% fib retracement of wave 5, which is the same as fib retracement of wave 2), and this should be done either tomorrow or Friday.
I would however only enter the trade going long at wave C, after price has moved towards my projection in wave A, and then retrace back to wave B. This is to make sure the count is correct first.
Happy trading.
Last edited by cmellon; 04-05-2009 at 07:26 PM..
|
07-30-2008, 03:10 PM
|
 |
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 1,111
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by chupacabra
I think we are whitnessing an intervention, like we saw in the 90s. Paulson already pointed out the possibility of an intervention earlier. I think the Fed's sold gold reserves in order to support the US Dollar.
If correct, then it's once again done at a very strategic moment in time. It doesn't have to be a short-term thing either, cause interventions can turn the world upside down, like was done in the nineties.
I am a huge gold fan and I can't deny that I am at least a bit worried.
|
When I said that a few days ago I was alone. Well, I'm backing you up.
Also, one more thing. I believe that the price of oil will detach itself (price correlation) from the dollar. If and when that happens, think of the consequences at the Eurozone gaspump!!! |
07-30-2008, 03:10 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 177
|
|
|
crude oil
crude oil moving lover breaking through $ 127 right now!
|
07-30-2008, 06:15 PM
|
|
|
|
get in now
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmellon
I like Jamie's alternate count better. It seems the structure of the five waves is already complete. Here's why I think so:
I would however only enter the trade going long at wave C, after price has moved towards my projection in wave A, and then retrace back to wave B. This is to make sure the count is correct first.
Happy trading.
|
Don't do that, mate! You will miss the upmove altogether. Who says it is an A-B-C coming from five impulsive waves down? God?  The dollar rally correction is complete against the euro.
Short term: strong suppport on the shoulder at 1.5553 math level. 1.5640 to 1.5760 will be the second shoulder. 200 pips upside coming soon.  |
07-30-2008, 06:33 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 36
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by b3nni
Jamies alternate count says v might be in place already so no more further decline which sounds possible as well. Both his counts target 1,5750- 1,58 if I do understand this correct.
GL to all
see chart
|
Like any seasoned Elliotician, Jamie always holds to at least one alternate count.
and in this he exhibits more wisdom than merely bet hedging
///////////////////////////////////////////////
---His first count considers that Euro's in a 3rd of a 3 wave --within the 5 incomplete waves of the major "C" --however wary of the RET "to at least 5615" again.--- We may have already gotten there (close to an 88.6)
---or ---
the 5 waves of the alternate count completes just the 1 wave --with the 2 RETing to arud 5780 even +5800
However, both counts reside within a major corrective big C --to unfold possibly below 5283
which count is most likely ----?????
I favor the first count as it fits into my trading time scheme
but I could be wrrrrong.
--be prepared to play it both ways if 5615 gets knocked on momentum PA
---with the GDP tomorrow --both sides of the street will crap shoot.
`` |
07-30-2008, 09:18 PM
|
 |
Member
|
|
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,227
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by terton
Don't do that, mate! You will miss the upmove altogether. Who says it is an A-B-C coming from five impulsive waves down? God? The dollar rally correction is complete against the euro.
Short term: strong suppport on the shoulder at 1.5553 math level. 1.5640 to 1.5760 will be the second shoulder. 200 pips upside coming soon. |
terton do you have a chart to show this please? |
|
|
| Thread Tools |
|
|
| Rate This Thread |
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is On
|
|
|
|
