Hi all.
Back from my holidays in the sun. Dollar has made a bit of a comeback, and now NFP are coming up. So whats next?
I dont know. But before I went on holiday 1,5611 was the level to watch and that has been broken. So from a technical point of view it looks like we will see more downside presure. Now the funda's need to support that.
NFP, Paulson, Oil, gold, FOMC, ECB.................. I need to start reading.
GL

Hi...Im jackclown ..ı have a problem on jackclown nicname ..and I do new nickname (Y.OZİS)..ok..But I send now new chart with old nickname(jackclow)..no now problem..ok...good trade

Hey thanks - sooooo - hope this isn't a stupid question - what is T1?

tried to do this this morning with the gdp data, went awfully wrong. lost 60+pips (on 0.4 lots, i´m on a mini account, so it´s a huge hit). First I got filled with my sell order just before 8.30. Then my longs got filled way too far for price of order. I cancelled the batch or orders, and some how got filled in different prices. shorts buying high, longs selling low, a big mess.

I thought it could work, but it didn´t this time. Maybe tomorrwow (smaller lots, placing the orders with restrictions and only 1-2 mins before the report)

i think the best advise anyone can give you in regards to NFP is to stay far away from it, the thought of awesome pips can become the reality of massive losses in a matter of moments when your platform freezes and you are unable to close or do anything but watch. It can and has spiked 200 pips in seconds, running SL's in both directions, brokers have widened spreads to 20 50 and once in IBFX a few yrs ago 200 pips, yes that number is correct 200 pips. NFP is really not for anyone new to forex. the widening of spreads can kill the idea you have there and profit becomes a big loss and a nice payday for your broker

I have been fulltime 4 yrs now and still have only traded it once, I trade the aftermath when the market has stabalized and come back to its senses.

Fortunes can be made but those that lose a fortune out number those that make them.

all but the most expereinced traders trade the NFP, it is better left alone. Trade when the dust settles and be safe

Your question was:
stryker answered:

I thought you looked at stryker's charts? "TL" stands for "Trend Line."

As someone who has personally been burned trading the NFP's, I can tell you that this is almost certainly the case. THe one time where I made significant profits on a post-news trade was when the FOMC dropped the Fed Funds by 50 basis points by surprise, and I sold as many US dollars as I possibly could. But I think these truly shocking one-offs are hard to come by, and more often than not you will find yourself with a seemingly irrational reaction from markets.

To put it shortly, I'm a firm believer in efficient markets. It seems like a good idea to buy the dollar on a really strong NFP's, and a look at the charts will tell you that it indeed does rally quite rapidly. But no one in their right mind is going to take the other side of that trade at a price at which you can turn a profit on a consistent basis.

Sure, you can get lucky sometimes and turn a profit, but the market becomes way too wild and liquidity far too scarce to have a consistent trading strategy post-NFP's.

I totally agree with you!! Nice post!

Very valuable information from CodyB (200 pips spread). It's very important for me to know this. Otherwise I may experience it someday with big loss.

Thanks a lot for sharing your experience here.

HI - i too am new to forex - after some sucessful day trading, with a couple of losses i got the 'clever' idea to trade big US data and got burned horribly, which i am still, still trying to recover from and doubt i will this year. The moves can be 40 pips either direction as the big traders are dumping shorts and buying longs on the data, this makes it very hard to see a direction and if you have place/sell orders in place with a small stop loss these will both be hit in a matter of seconds, and you'll be lucky to only loose a spread on two orders. Trading news is nerve racking, please don't make the same mistakes i did - try not to guess bottoms and tops on ups and downs - take a step back, look at the charts of good folk like Cmellon, striker lovelyforex etc and try and follow their lead - afterall if they are still posting, then they are still trading, and from one newbe to another to still be trading after any length of time you have to know your stuff - i didn't and its cost me the price of a nice car. Trade the aftermath of news events when directions and trends become clearer, it doesn't seem as profitable, but in the end it will be, and what you will gain from this is the ability to stay in the game and get experience. I wish you all the best and please don't get to bold too soon, i did and everyday i kick myself.

Good luck all and thanks to everyone on this forum for your advise and support to others.

It seems like the analysts got it wrong....the US data WASN'T actually good. I wonder where they all got their information from ;-)

Hi Guilder, welcome back! Hold on to your pants it has been a wilde ride in your absence.

NFP, besides the big spreads, which I experienced yesterday on a straddle (a buy stop and sell stop 20 pips or so apart) on AUS/USD data, I lost my trade before it opened, there are also fills that are slow. In other words, if your stop hits at your set level, the broker might not fill it until after your take profit, in which case you lose. You need a very fast platform close to the new york or London servers, and to us that is not available.

The best way is to set your trade now, into the right direction.
Now, let's analyse. After the GDP data it seemed easy, the next wave was down. But FMOC messed it up and now we are in limbo. It can go up or down. Down would mean an extention of wave 5, up would mean the start of a new wave. So Elloitt waves don't help us here.

There is however a trendline support an a channel. Price right now is in the middle of the channel. To get to the bottom, it needs to break heavy resistance. To go up, would be easier, top would be 5670 area.
Resistance at 5522. Bottom of channel is 5480 area.

Now, what do we have in sentiment:
Last week a lot of peopel lost their job and unemployment claims were up. However, if data is not as bad as expected, it can be interpreted as good and it can go south fast. Also, the numbers can be 'softened' with adjustments later in the month. So, numbers don't help us here either.
So, I don't know. I am staying away from it.

Edit: And o, I forgot to mention the horrible 'whipsaw'. a 40 pip or so move bot ways, hitting both stops. If you're lucky, they fill immediately, if unlucky, you lose more than you planned for.

Did all you longs get stopped out? This push down is getting stressful especially after such a run up today. This has to bounce back up IMO. This will be a long night. Good luck to all traders hope tomoorow brings some profit!

I got stopped out, realized P&L minus commission $ 4.49 LOL, I call it a day.
I hope you guys have a better day, good luck, see you tomorrow!

i usually dont babysit my trades but it has made for some great scalps. i took profit on one of my longs @5599 and immediately took a short. i rode the short to the 5566. those scalps have made me pretty much even on my long @5620. i did open another 2 longs @5568 as i still see bad data translating into a test of the 5750 range. i cant stress how wrong i could be so any of the newer traders PLEASE trade based off of your own analysis. if you arent as confident in your decision, whichever way that is, i suggest staying out of the path of the storm that is coming tomorrow