1.5565 has been met!!
Owwwwwwwww Baby!!!!!
1.5600 Is Next!!

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From the Forex Factory:

Direct Link To This Chart: EUR_USD 7/31/2008

EUR_USD 7/31/2008
Euro's reaction after the GDP got out (1.9% vs 2.3% exp) is a sharp move towards the 1.57 level which with the current momentum certainly doesn't looks that far. Now if tomorrows NFP comes out inline with today's numbers we can expect EURUSD to push even higher basically annihilating all the profits from the last few days.

I am still sitting on some high buys - opened in the high 1.56 area. So I am reading everything I can to figure out my strategy for tonight and tomorrow morning. Of course this post from Forex Factory is in my favor so I am hoping that this is what happens.

I would love to know what you guys think about what will be happening in the next 15 hours. Thanks!

you would do well to stay away from FF, it is a good place to lose your money, you may or may not notice that none of the old members post there anymore, you are in the right place right here but not there

I had decided that I was going to short in advance. However, at 5560 it's too low. Because if I am wrong, it has a lot more room to the top, and a lot less room to the bottom. The reason I was going to short is not that I'm $ bullish. It's because lately, the oil people have moved from the supply to the demand. Meaning, that poor data tomorrow would mean less demand, and possibly a downer for oil. And since people still consider oil is upside down correlated to the $, maybe the dollar would not lose so much. But, like I said, I'd do it if it was sitting around 5700.

got stopped.
P&L for the day: minus 30% of my fresh new mini account. very bad day.

Hi everyone,

I just entered a long position at 5562 with Stop Loss set at 5520 (slightly lower than the swing low at wave 5), Target Profit is a conservative 5700.

I am banking on wave C to rise to complete the EW structure. Also right now, wave b seems to stall at 78.6% fib at 5540. Alternate EW count is actually available in which wave 5 is extended and therefore it will continue downward from here. However, I feel the risk reward ratio for this particular trade is quite favorable, and the risk is something that I am willing to absorb.

Around 5720-5780, I will switch to short, targetting no less than 5300.

Good luck everyone.

P.S. IF anyone follows my trade, please know that there's a risk for every trade, and it can't be right all the time

Today financial markets are closed in Switzerland for the national independence day. Switzerland is independent since 1291.

Im inclined to agree with you, but I am concerned about whiplash caused by the NFPs. Are you not worried about that?

cmellon - I appreciate your posts. I am new to forex, but I am learning a lot. Will you hold the position through NFP? I was considering a similar long, but this morning, I got burned trying to hold through the US GDP data. I had a short position on both EUR/USD and GBP/USD with a combined pip profit of about 40 that I thought I had locked in with stops, but after the GDP data came out, my stops were triggered but weren't filled until my combined 40 pip profit became a combined -25 pip loss.

Good for Switzerland. Swiss pikemen were the coolest fighting force of the late middle ages. Awesome.

well i am glad to see i am not the only one looking forward to the impending madness today brings

I am quite worried. If possible and allowed, I will move my stop loss as soon as I am reasonably in the money.

it better hurry up and start moving up, it has a long way to go for 5700's but I do agree we will see the 5700's and possible low 5800's before 53, how it will get there is yet to be seen. I will not even try and call NFP, numbers are all over the place so stops are set and we will have to let this play out till the AM now

hopefully the brits will agree at 3am est

Euro looks like stalling at 78.6% fib retracement. On the other hand, it doesn't want to go up either.

If price is still around this range, I will be out of the trade soon for a small pip profit with NFP ahead. Will reassess situation at least 1 hour after NFP.

Fiber on chart..........

Pick of a supp now comes in at 5525-30 region with the first or decent batch of stops rt below 5497..

for what it is worth leaving a long order at 5530 with stops below 5490.
i expect a bounce for arund 5530 maybe a spike low to it and then a bounce back. would be good as i would be riding it....

if 5500-5530 does prevail, upcoming tgt by monday would be 5820 region or close to it.. 5744 should get tested today then...

however a slide lower calls for deeper correction with a possible touch down to 5470 supp and a break extending or meeting tgts around 5410-18......

this is a tech call and nothing to do with the actual NFP numbers..
nevertheless lightly jumping and unless the it doesnot gap heavily i would be shedding about half of my gains made out yesterday.......

i would however look to add further to the longs once we are start staying above 5650 on a retest of this lvl form the higher grounds......
a close look onto the charts and a break of 5520 is initially sellable, i might just hedge the longs if the system doesnot freezes offcourse on a move below 5520 for 20-25 odd pips.....


fot those looking forward to playing it safe, as i should be as well is to spot a bounce form 5525 and then jump longs with the stops from the spike low...
there is a strategy as well to trade NFP, that is to wait the first 5 mins candle and not do anything. the second 5 mins candle (8:35 AM NY timee) if it breaks the top of the previous 5 mins candle (the one when the data hit the mkt) buy it with stops below the low of the previous 5 mins candle and vice versa...
this was spotless for quite some while when we used it againa and again till it started playing irrational and there was more whiplash on both sides....
basically NFP is not for everyone, matter of fact it is only for those who are crazy and im certainly am............

stay away from emotions when trading NFP and be fast to react accrodingly...
GLL to all the kamakazees out there...........

prime numbers on supp:

5525 followed by 5495 to finally 5470, below that a deeper move..

on the north side:

5615 followed by 5650 followed to 5744..... from there onwards 5820 is on the cards......

Attached Files

Fiber.doc (388.0 KB, 130 views)

__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...