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  #8341 (permalink)  
Old 08-08-2008, 09:03 AM
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Stryker: I am very sorry to hear that.
But you're good! And you will fight your way back, I am sure of that.

GL and try to enjoy the weekend.

Last edited by Guilder; 08-08-2008 at 09:04 AM.. Reason: typo
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  #8342 (permalink)  
Old 08-08-2008, 09:04 AM
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RSI below 10. im saying jump in on the longs yet but WOW!!!

i would LOVE to tell you guys i have to shorts open and running from 5330 and 5320. (which i do) on the other hand i do not want to tell you guys that i have a long from 5310 and 5322.but of course i do i will wait for this to settle down which may not happen until sunday or monday to unload.

i am still baffled at this breakout. nothing more than rhetoric has driven this. i am on the safe side as i did not lose any % of my account but i feel so truly bad for the traders that were crippled by this move. i am an American and in the interest of this country i would love to see the dollar crumble further. you know kinda how forest fires are viewed as a good thing that promotes new growth. i think this country could use a good fire. that coupled with the fact that bleeding heart liberals have ruined this country.

ALL of that said, i still stand behind my belief that the dollar is in MUCH worse shape than the EURO. if anyone can with a good conscience name one thing dollar positive that helped fuel this run. i didnt think so
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  #8343 (permalink)  
Old 08-08-2008, 09:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by melbgirl View Post
Thanks Ikar, I remember you mentioned this...full marks for Brian Dolan and Jacob Oubina...can anyone subscribe to their email alerts?
sorry dont think this is posibile..i receive those research notes before every big event coming up as a pro trader with Forex.com...must say that notes from those two guys are always wery acurate...
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  #8344 (permalink)  
Old 08-08-2008, 09:06 AM
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I haven't really seen any mention of this, but the $ Index broke above a rising trendline that connected the March, May, and June highs this morning. I think this is a really critical breakout, and the index looks to be targeting a major falling trendline that dates back to late-2005. As a result, I'd be hesitant to try catching bottoms in the dollar quite yet.
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  #8345 (permalink)  
Old 08-08-2008, 09:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guilder View Post
Long at 1,5060. Help!
i hear ya bud........ almost 300 pips and no rallies back up...........
i guess just sell it with 50 pip s/l and 50 pips limit...... would have worked out on all moves yesterday and today......had we known.....
fingers licking BAD........ there is alway 2moro.......

GL
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Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
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  #8346 (permalink)  
Old 08-08-2008, 09:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stryker View Post
i hear ya bud........ almost 300 pips and no rallies back up...........
i guess just sell it with 50 pip s/l and 50 pips limit...... would have worked out on all moves yesterday and today......had we known.....
fingers licking BAD........ there is alway 2moro.......

GL
says the seasoned trader. stryker, this is precisely the kind of talk we expect to hear from a true professional. You'll get your pips back - I have no doubt in that. Keep posting mate. Always good stuff.
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  #8347 (permalink)  
Old 08-08-2008, 09:10 AM
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Originally Posted by cmellon View Post
Yea, sue me later, LOL
Haha, I think your analysis is right, it is oversold now.

With a move of 289 pips today, this is the third biggest move in EURUSD (in pips) ever seen. Bigger moves were seen on the 3rd of January 2001 (303 pips) and on 22nd of September 2000 (416 pips).

*Check out what happened after the big move.
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  #8348 (permalink)  
Old 08-08-2008, 09:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guilder View Post
Stryker: I am very sorry to hear that.
But you're good! And you will fight your way back, I am sure of that.

GL and try to enjoy the weekend.
true that friend.....
don;t laugh but for the heck of it, i changed my lots to 50k from 100k and went one long at 5066...no stops...........
will check at closing.......... it cannot get any worse then it is already for me .....

had we guys went short would have been a big laugh to the bank.........
but u r rt....... we will bounce back.................
__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
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  #8349 (permalink)  
Old 08-08-2008, 09:20 AM
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More pain at Fannie - $2.3 billion loss

Mortgage finance giant suffers much larger-than-expected loss due to reserves for credit losses and slashes its dividend to preserve capital.

thats directly off cnn, go dollar. maybe you will rally to 1.45 on MORE bad news

Last edited by trip00; 08-08-2008 at 09:23 AM..
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  #8350 (permalink)  
Old 08-08-2008, 09:20 AM
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Did everyone here think the Eur was going to 200.00??
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  #8351 (permalink)  
Old 08-08-2008, 09:25 AM
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I feel ya stryker. I got into the game for real on July 3rd thinking a rate increase would send the euro up and beyond but that blew up in my face and lost about $1000 of 1300. Last night went to bed with my demo account up to 120,000.00 wake up this afternoon both longs were stopped out and my demo drained to 30,000. Just brutal. 2 weeks worth of building up lost in 1 day.
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  #8352 (permalink)  
Old 08-08-2008, 09:28 AM
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zarif
same here cojones in a sling here as am long Eurobabe from 200 odd pips above and short usd/chf at 1.0630

really need a bounce on Euro and fall in usd/chf

meanwhile cojones in ice bucket and see if can wether the storm as this kill today is relentless

rgd
z
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  #8353 (permalink)  
Old 08-08-2008, 09:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stanchiam View Post
Haha, I think your analysis is right, it is oversold now.

With a move of 289 pips today, this is the third biggest move in EURUSD (in pips) ever seen. Bigger moves were seen on the 3rd of January 2001 (303 pips) and on 22nd of September 2000 (416 pips).

*Check out what happened after the big move.
I was checking my database, I found the two largest moves are:

09/23/2000:
High = 0.89920
Low = 0.85760
Range = 416 pips
Close = 0.8609

Interestingly, this is on Friday, just like today. Let's look what happens on the next Monday

09/26/2000:
High = 0.88250
Low = 0.87140
Range = 111 pips
Open = 0.8782

The open on Monday gaps by more than 100 pips higher !!

Second largest move is on

02/29/2000
High = 0.9746
Low = 0.939
Range = 356 pips
Close = 9744

Strangely, this also happens on Friday. Seems like there's something with black Friday. Is today a black Friday? Let's look at the next Monday

03/01/2000
High = 9900
Low = 9627
Range = 273 pips
Open = 9708
Close = 9712

So in this case, next Monday price gaps a few pips lower, but the high range on the next day is almost 200 pips higher (though it closes back to 9712).
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  #8354 (permalink)  
Old 08-08-2008, 09:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stanchiam View Post
Haha, I think your analysis is right, it is oversold now.

With a move of 289 pips today, this is the third biggest move in EURUSD (in pips) ever seen. Bigger moves were seen on the 3rd of January 2001 (303 pips) and on 22nd of September 2000 (416 pips).

*Check out what happened after the big move.
The biggest hit I ever had happened in March of 1995. I was heavy long the USD and the Mexican Bolsa crisis happened. At that time I had to call my broker to make a deal. I tried to sweat it out and was hanging on to the position. I lost between 30K and 50K a day for a whole week. I remember getting the margin call. I had 15K left out of 250K. It felt like some one died. When I woke up in the morning, it was the first thing on my mind. I had to grieve the loss for a while and it was back to the grind stone and survive. I thought about mortgaging my house to raise capital but fortunately did not. Never play with money you depend on. I was still wearing the same cloth, eating the same food, driving the same car. Back then the USD-CHF dropped from 1.30 to 1.12 within days. I thought this story may helps those who lost as I did.

I remember reading a daily report on the Internet where the author was writing about a black whole sucking up USD and he predicted what would happen yesterday to the "T". this was at 15:00 GMT. I did not believe it. How do you tell when to believe and when not? You have to live with your decision. Even so it feels like a huge move, it really isn't.

Right now I think we need to get that duct tape out you guys referred to in the past.

Stryker, the fact that you lost some makes me feel not as stupid as I see that it can happen even to you. I heard that every really successful pro had lost at least once every thing he owned, some recover and some trow the towel... Even so I lost once every thing I had in cash, I still do not feel like I learned much since, please keep sharing your thoughts, you were right many more times than you were wrong, you are in my eyes a real pro !!

Last edited by pf0351; 08-08-2008 at 09:46 AM..
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Old 08-08-2008, 09:43 AM
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505 seems to be holding, some decent buyers at that level. 1.5000, 1.49675, .49406, .49213 should prove decent support.
As for now, 5050 seems a good support. I'm out with my shorts! Good day today. Taking the week off with my profits....
Olympics have started and Bush has kept his promise to China for a stronger dollar for now. Part of the big plan maybe?

GL All, have a good weekend!
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