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08-25-2008, 11:34 AM
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DollarBull
Well, you see the EuroZone GDP report came long AFTER the price fell from 1.6 to 1.47... so, it wasn't exactly that report which caused the fall, since all anti-dollar currencies fell by 1000 pips or more in three weeks, which means the change was mainly USD-driven, not Eurozone or other regional factors. And Wantagate Paulson's attempts to transfer of liability from investors (and bondholders) onto taxpayers can only have long term negative effect on the economy...
There is no sharp U-turn for an economy. It is a lightyear long parabolic curve.
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I agree but markets are forward looking and expectations get priced in way before the data is out. I agree it wasn't the report that caused the fall but way before the report was made public the expectaions were out well in advance and they were clearly for a negative GDP. When the report came out it confirmed the expectation and therefore no reaction....Furthermore,
along with an expectaion for negative GDP, a 20-30 bps cut for next 12 months ECB rate was also being priced simultaneously with the fall in Euro.
I agree with you regrading the long term negative impact of the Paulson policy on the economy but as far as fixed income investment flows and therefore current dollar demand is concerned making the implict gauranteee of agency paper explicit is strong factor to attract capital and thereofore is a major positive at least in near term....
I couldn't have agreed more about the lightyear long parabolic curve or infact even a L shape i.e. no recovery.
Thanks,
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08-25-2008, 02:05 PM
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Registered User
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Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 3
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yes totally agreed
keep it up
Forex Optical - Home |
08-25-2008, 02:11 PM
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 197
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wow, its quiet in here. closed my short from 4790 for 40 pips although i think it may go back to test the 4710 region again tonight. profit is profit 
anyone else open atm? |
08-25-2008, 02:17 PM
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Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trip00
wow, its quiet in here. closed my short from 4790 for 40 pips although i think it may go back to test the 4710 region again tonight. profit is profit
anyone else open atm? |
yup, i'm short from 4780 + 4760 |
08-25-2008, 02:17 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 89
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did some scalping... no gains, no loss... breakeven for the day
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08-25-2008, 02:29 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 36
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still stuck up here was waiting on 4810 TP, LOL
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08-25-2008, 02:47 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 36
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Please go back up
Please go back up, or bye bye
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08-25-2008, 02:50 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 89
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are you loaded on that?
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08-25-2008, 03:03 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by -Rodri-
are you loaded on that?
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u Betcha, 50 pips down, im bleeding |
08-25-2008, 03:06 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EducatedThug
u Betcha, 50 pips down, im bleeding
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anybody think itll go back up, i figured 4820 was resistance so i tp at 4810, lool looks like i missed by 1.3 pips hmmmmm |
08-25-2008, 03:48 PM
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Senior Member
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 728
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EducatedThug
anybody think itll go back up, i figured 4820 was resistance so i tp at 4810, lool looks like i missed by 1.3 pips hmmmmm
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COT positionings are at extreme ends, there will be violent reversal any day any hour sending EUR, GBP, AUD up by long candlesticks... This is time to bet USD weakness. The annual bear season for US stock markets has began and will continue until end of october which will be bad for USD. Hence the anti-USD currencies bulls will rule for another two months... |
08-25-2008, 03:51 PM
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Join Date: Aug 2006
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4805 looks to be resistance to me, which isnt too far off. however, lots of pressure to the downside IMO. i think as long as we close above 4720 we could see another test of 4800. with that in mind we have some possible bad data from the eur due tonight. loads of bad news over here in the US today yet we see no real $ weakness. that always amuses me.
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08-25-2008, 03:58 PM
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Pippin was (almost) right. He was calling for 1,4820's and then 1,4650. The first target was was (almost) hit, and its highly likely the second one will (almost) be hit as well.
Hit 'm hard, Pippin!
I still cannot see dollar going higher, but its not going lower either. So I have to stay out. EUR GBP is maybe worth a check. The daily in particular.
Have a good one, all.
Cheers.
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08-25-2008, 04:12 PM
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Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 1,111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guilder
Pippin was (almost) right. He was calling for 1,4820's and then 1,4650. The first target was was (almost) hit, and its highly likely the second one will (almost) be hit as well.
Hit 'm hard, Pippin!
I still cannot see dollar going higher, but its not going lower either. So I have to stay out. EUR GBP is maybe worth a check. The daily in particular.
Have a good one, all.
Cheers.
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PARTY POOPER!!!!!!!!!! |
08-25-2008, 04:25 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 519
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What party.....?
Dollar bull party? Voyage of the damned, you mean?
Adios. |
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