Originally Posted by eurolinux

Just read this interesting article
can someone interpret this ?

Eastern Europe May Start A Domino Effect Of Defaults | Right Soup

Originally Posted by qed

It seems that the EUR is being attacked from all sides. First Eastern Europe and Russia may default. Secondly, factory orders are plunging as Germany is no longer selling cars in the U.S. or machines anywhere. Thirdly, they owe the Fed Big wampum.

Strangely it is the Chinese that are acting as a stabalizing force to the global economy as they are dropping wads of cash all over the globe to secure commodities on the cheap. This makes for a rather confusing situation as all of the mining companies are laying off workers. How can you buy miners if they are shutting down production?

I am still leaning towards the AUD but am unsure of the trade.

I pray to God that somehow this all works out and that we have learned something from the Great Depression and two world wars.

Originally Posted by eurolinux

No we did not and newer will
read the bible bro, we're in the last days the world economy will collapse by 2013 and US will lead the downfall

Just short the dollar and buy gold

Originally Posted by Trading4cash

USD showing strength here before market open, already 50 pips lower than market close for eur/usd. Looks like we start the week with USD strength.

Originally Posted by CodyB

thank you for letting us know you are also a biblical expert oh wise one

shall we leave the cities and head for the wild and live in tents to await the return?

Originally Posted by eurolinux

USD is falling like a brick EUR is up 150 pips in 40 minutes and setting itself up for 1.3 then 1.33
Don't get fooled by the creepy pullback on volume
EUR always declines slow

Originally Posted by CodyB

look at a monthly chart wise one and tell us that euro falls slow

ok, ignore is now one user bigger, my fun is over, you are not worthy

Originally Posted by qed

Well, that is an interesting perspective, however I do not agree with it. The banking problems in Europe are much worse than the U.S. and more difficult to solve. I came across this book today and the Intorduction in this article shows somw eerie parallels to today's crisis.

Some interesting thigs to note are that today like then France is wheathering the shock better than Germany. Back then the BOE was in trouble because U.K. banks had lent money to Germany. Today European banks are in trouble due to lending in the Baltic states which has become impaired do to Russia invading Georgia and a currency crisis in those countries.

I totally agree with what you are saying about Obama's stimulus plan. However I think that Bernanke is the right man for the job and will do the necessary Quantitative Easing. Now if China brings cash home it may indeed be more difficult for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low, however other countries will step in and buy our bonds. Japan interest rates are near zero and there is no reason they would stop buying our bonds. During times of crisis investors will continue to flock to the dollar. And the fact that Obama is snuffing out the consumer is a positive IMO because dollars stop flowing into the exporting countires. We are in for tough times in the U.S. as we no longer have a free trader at the helm. The U.S. needs to boost exports to developing countries to have any hope of getting out of this mess because consumption in the U.S. is dead and we have nothing to look forward to but tax increases from this administration as well as more government greed.

Read the article.

'Lords' And Lessons From The Great Depression : NPR

Originally Posted by se1paul

Hello Mike,

If we opt for a standard auction process and large tranches of assets clear in the open market at, say, 15 cents to a dollar, but US banks currently have these particular assets marked at 30 cents to a dollar. Then any sale would leave these banks with huge realised losses and further writedowns relative to newly discovered market prices, thereby rendering many of them insolvent. Bearing this risk in mind, the CEOs of these banks will have no incentive to sell at such firesale prices, and will instead stubbornly hold on to these toxic assets, as they are doing now, in the hope that the market eventually improves.

Conversely, I cannot why investors from the private sector will pay current market prices for these assets, unless the Fed includes some very generous insurance provision, or advantageous financing terms, to cushion any further downside risks, all of which would be at a further cost and risk to the taxpayer.

Overall, I opt for nationalisation as being the best solution available. Out of interest, did you read the exert of Nouriel Roubini's solution that Bryan provided in an earlier post? It's actually a very interesting piece.

Speaking of Mr Roubini, I remember reading an essay he wrote sometime in the fall of 2007 (I think), where he outlined his forecast on how the crisis would mutate and totally engulf the global economy, risking a widespread depression and mass bankruptcies of financial institutions in the process. At the time I thought the piece, although of great interest, was fundamentally an extreme and very unlikely outcome. I still believed in the power of the Fed and market forces. How wrong was I?

Another economist who has been incredibly accurate throughout this crisis, even before its explosion in August 2007, is a guy called George Magnus. The cruel irony of this snippet of information is the fact that Mr Magnus is Senior Economic Adviser to UBS - possibly the worst affected institution from this credit crisis. I think we all know what lessons can be drawn from this tale for the UBS board...

Good weekend all.

Paul

Originally Posted by forex newbie

I don't think that is the case at all. I have noticed that the UK and EU are at least 2 quarters behind the US, also, you are forgetting the savings rate in the EU is much higher than the US so deflation does nothing but help EURO at this point. The way it stands right now, a person who is a citizen of the EU can save all their money, put it in a High interest Savings or CD in an EU bank and go live in the US, Switzerland, the Caribbean or Japan and just live off the interest being paid currently!!!!

I think the ECB and Trichet are actually smart. It makes no sense to kill rates when real estate is not the EU's driving factor for economy stabilization, most Europeans only lease or they live in residence that is owned by their families which was paid off ages ago, so all they do is pay the tax on it. And since land is scarce in Europe it only makes since to lease instead of purchase, why waste your money or real estate? Does make sense to me, especially when the government has the right to take it away from you.

I think some on this board are looking at the EURO in the wrong way, though I might add they present a strong argument but in order to really paint a picture of macro-economy you have to look at the lifestyle of an average european. Most are not debt ladden like the people in the UK and US!!!!

Originally Posted by qed

And how does the government in the EU take your property away?

Originally Posted by eurolinux

Stop paying taxes and you'll find out

same goes for US ...and actually it is more economical to own real estate in Europe where taxes are very low compared to US and hoses are better quality in average as most of the European contries build hoses from brick or modern insulated blocks not wood and cardboard

average US home is total junk after 25 years and needs major repairs, it is great for building material producers and construction workers but never good for the owners

Fixing up wood sheds is called economy in the US ....lol