Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 863

qed · #**12931** (**permalink**) 02-27-2009, 04:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lloydblankfein

consumer will consume no matter what, especially the rich.

I don't think you have been paying attention. The high end department stores in the U.S. have been decimated. Anything high end has been trashed. The rich are all shopping at Family Dollar store now.

qed · #**12932** (**permalink**) 02-27-2009, 04:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by melbgirl

03:05 EUR/USD: Bid After Development Banks Pledge Aid To E.Europe Sydney, February 27: The World Bank, EBRD and the EIB have pledged 25 BLN EUR worth of loans to Eastern Europe banks and businesses. The move is further evidence that there is a movement afoot to try and stem the crisis in Eastern Europe that threatens to undermine the European banking sector. The EUR/USD briefly pushed higher after the report, but sellers ahead of 1.2730 discouraged attempts higher. The EUR/USD traded 1.2720/25. --John.Noonan@thomsonreuters.com

I think this is going to shape market action today. A bear market rally could be under way. I closed all my shorts (EUR/USD, NZD/USD) and opened yen shorts against the EUR and AUD. I am with those who say that ultimately no country will leave the EUR even though the danger is very real.

There's a chance EUR/GBP longs will do well today and that could limit GBP gains.

Nice call on the AUD and JPY. Thank you so much. You comments caused me to re think my position and cover my EURAUD short. I will likely try to put this trade back on near the RBA meeting next week.

I just don't see any recovery in the EUR because its economy is cyclical and industrial based. Australia exports agricultural goods, coal, iron ore, and gold. Iron ore could get soft but the other three should reamin strong IMO.

The EUR like Japan is too dependent on the U.S. and nothing isi happening in the U.S. to inspire the consumer. That is why I think the EURUSD will be a slow bleed down to .95. Plus you have recessions across most of the EU, some requiring the riot police. I just don't see this inspiring a lot of confidence. I favor the AUD if we ever see a bottom in this wretched economy.

I went short the EURUSD yesterday afternoon.

melbgirl · #**12933** (**permalink**) 02-27-2009, 04:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by qed

Nice call on the AUD and JPY. Thank you so much. You comments caused me to re think my position and cover my EURAUD short. I will likely try to put this trade back on near the RBA meeting next week.

I just don't see any recovery in the EUR because its economy is cyclical and industrial based. Australia exports agricultural goods, coal, iron ore, and gold. Iron ore could get soft but the other three should reamin strong IMO.

The EUR like Japan is too dependent on the U.S. and nothing isi happening in the U.S. to inspire the consumer. That is why I think the EURUSD will be a slow bleed down to .95. Plus you have recessions across most of the EU, some requiring the riot police. I just don't see this inspiring a lot of confidence. I favor the AUD if we ever see a bottom in this wretched economy.

I went short the EURUSD yesterday afternoon.

You are making good trades and it seems like this bit of news I quoted was not enough to spark a bear market rally. The opposite happened. The strange thing is that 1.2628 stopped the decline for now while the pound dropped through previous support if only marginally. So I would not be at all surprised to see EUR bounce back and the pound back up to 1.43 within a few hours. I will get out of all my trades soon and try to enjoy the weekend.
Good luck everyone....

qed · #**12934** (**permalink**) 02-27-2009, 04:39 AM

On the fundamental side what I am thinking in regard to the EUR is that it was really torpedoed only about 8 months ago when Russia invaded Georgia. The financial crisis in the U.S. has been going on for a year and one half so we have had more time to heal. And housing in the US topped nearly three years ago. The housing market in the U.K. topped a full year after the U.S.

It takes time for financial insitutions to heal as initially banks are in denial and want to sweep their problems under the rug. It will take at least another year for all of the bad loans to be flushed out in Europe.

themover · #**12935** (**permalink**) 02-27-2009, 05:12 AM

Eur/Usd looks like its oversold. Going long, with stops around/below 1.26; targetting mid and high 1.2600s.

themover · #**12936** (**permalink**) 02-27-2009, 05:14 AM

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qed · #**12937** (**permalink**) 02-27-2009, 06:26 AM

I'm a little surprised at how bearish the small specs of FXCM's SSI are on the USD in advace of next weeks central bank meetings in Europe and Australia.

This makes me think the USD index could continue its upward march.

samsclub · #**12938** (**permalink**) 02-27-2009, 08:31 AM

Maybe the USD is heading for the 38.2% FIB level at about 89.50 before correcting and the EURO/USD pair keeps heading south, perhaps to the bottom of the 4hr channel.

Still favor lower dollar, from a fundamental standpoint, long term.

eurolinux · #**12939** (**permalink**) 02-27-2009, 10:44 AM

It's amazing how EUR can erase 2 session loses in 25 minutes

It's telling me that it's very risky to be long in dollars

pdean123 · #**12940** (**permalink**) 02-27-2009, 11:01 AM

One Hour
There is a possible Range Shift occurring on the RSI. Price convincingly broke the 40 range level at 3:00am EST and then hit a lower level at 9am EST. Price tried to test the 40 at 10am but failed and is currently before the close pointing down.
Moving Averages are down (9SMA & 45 EMA) on price and RSI
The last Negative Reversal that began on 2/25/09 and 2/26/09 with a target of 1.2672 has been hit. Momentum appears to still be to the downside.

Daily
RSI Range has been between 50 and slightly less than 30 from early January.
Moving Averages are sideways on the RSI and down on price.
Reversals - A 17 period Negative Reversal completed on 2/24 with a target of 1.2335.
Paul
This is the opinion of this trader.
A Story of Forex.. | You Learn Forex

eurolinux · #**12941** (**permalink**) 02-27-2009, 11:27 AM

Haven't seen price action like this in a long time
when EUR picks up it usually stays up for a session at least

It sold of as fast as it went up ...this doesn't happen too often
It's super volatile

pdean123 · #**12942** (**permalink**) 02-27-2009, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurolinux

Haven't seen price action like this in a long time
when EUR picks up it usually stays up for a session at least

It sold of as fast as it went up ...this doesn't happen too often
It's super volatile

This movement is just volume entering at the right time for the technical data that your seeing on the charts. Price had to move up in this case acceleration so that it could move down as the market is overbought right now. Look at my earlier post. The market has pushed itself into a reversal. Targets are downward now. First Target would be 1.2576 on the hourly.

smartboy · #**12943** (**permalink**) 02-27-2009, 12:41 PM

bullish movement .

Good luck

zoowe · #**12944** (**permalink**) 02-27-2009, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smartboy

bullish movement .

Good luck

Funnies! Thank you for making me laugh

TaoJin88 · #**12945** (**permalink**) 02-28-2009, 12:36 AM

when will EU go to in the next week? any analysis now?

here is a cool forex forum, check it: http://forex.taojin88.com