the price action of the Equities markets tell us of what is the FOMC decision.
It is the action of the insider versus the unknowledgeable (like us).

Insider loaded up on Equities when SPX hit 1491. The market simply could not go down. In addition, Gold was up significantly more now at 785, imagine one month ago it was at 670 (I made the call before Gold breaks resistance at 680).

We dun need to draw pictures, reason out what the rate cut would be. B;cos we are ultimately here to make monies, not to get a PhD in Fed forecasting.

FOMC is just a facade for the money mongers in US. It is not independent. Its actions would soon relegate itself into oblivion by 2010. B'cos we are entering into a period of High Inflation. When Fed takes rate down to 1%, it has lost it tool to control inflation.
US is entering into a period of STAGFLATION, (high inflation, slow growth). It would last for a few yrs, while the Asian economies take over the Equity leadership. While Europe is more a laggard as well. EURO would take centrestage as world reserve currency (probably once Iran war breaks out, the change of leadership would be complete).

In next decade, CNY would morph into a world reserve currency, probably before 2020 (when it sends the FIRST human onto Moon). The US moonlanding was a stage performance in a hollywood studio.

Having said all these, prepare for a Euro/Equity/Gold strength into Nov/Dec,
before some profit taking takes place.

Just swim with the Big Fish.

[quote=DollarPro;

Just swim with the Big Fish.[/QUOTE]

you meant with the sharks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

CNN shows a segment "This week at war". It shows pictures of soldiers killed in Iraq this week. It is really heartwrenching, and inspiring for war infact.

Media is beating the drums for Bush.

Nuclear reactor being built by North Korea in Syria was air raided by Israel, the pictures are now out.

Possibly development, aircraft carrier battlegroups would be deployed into the Persian Gulf. Possibly 3 battlegroups by Dec.

Everybody wants to go Nuclear in Middleeast. Not to mention Indonesia is planning to build a nuclear reactor as well. To be precise, all Muslim nations want to go nuclear, on the pretext of High Oil.

However, the markets worldwide are now dancing. It has to. The last waltz.

As for Gold, 790 would be a formidable barrier, as mining companies are locking in their sale at that level. (Gold hit 685 Friday).

Expect whipsawig of Euro at 1.4400 level. Watch out for wild swings up and down to take out stops post FOMC. After which the bias is up into 1.4500.

It is an orderly fall for USD, USDX at 77.00. This begs the question, would it orderly fall into 1.5000.

Nobody expected the fall of USD from 1.16 (in Oct 2005) into 1.4400 now in such an orderly manner.

Then what is not orderly ? A plunge from 1.4400 into 1.5000 in a matter of 3 weeks ? Possible, as then the SPX, NDX, INDU would go parabolic as well.

I think that is what the market is waiting for, and markets are hardly wrong.

When everybody is looking for a fall, market simply refuses.

dude, you can't be serious about the moon landing having been staged, are you??! What else, the world is flat?

Also, you insisted on something happening on Oct. 23 - here is your "forecast":

As Wallstreet Nostradamus, I say 23 Oct (Tuesday) is the day, a day of violent actions (it can be a up or down by the way).

We may see a spectacular one day 10% drop in SPX/INDU/NDX followed by a similar spectacular rise of 10%.

Come on. Some of your postings do provide nice insights but some are just plain ridiculous: staged moon landings etc. and some are just shots in the dark: Oct. 23 Wall street, etc.

it's fun to read your posts though: either they provide insights or they make me fall of my chair in laughter and sometimes both like your latest post which provided insights but then made laugh about the moon landing being staged in a hollywood studio.

Add DollarPro to your ignore list and his posts will not show.

Hi All,
I thought I would mention this as it is one of my 'real indicators'.
Our milk prices have just gone up by 66% this week- also bread and cheese. This is serious food price inflation.
So much for 'price stability'!- C'mon Trichet; do y'er job.

__________________
Keep in mind that neither success nor failure is ever final. --Roger Babson (1875-1967)
YTD +5%

Amazing, what some people write as an economic commentary sounds more like an economic perversion. Hilariously silly.

So, for clarification, you don't see a 100 bp cut?

That's insane. What was your sample size? This wasn't just one store was it?

This is just further evidence that the G3 have fundamentally flawed inflation calculations. And, the real problem is that so many other smaller central banks copy the Fed, BoJ and ECB in their measurement techniques; so we end up with hidden, global inflation pressures.

As I see it, this is a big issue in the States as many Americans were spending most of their disposable income on housing/rent (a truly understated component, and perhaps it still is even now with the housing correction), food and staples. For the past few years, economists and business leaders were talking about incredible wage growth and overall employment; but considering the general wealth and overall living standards for the country it seems like real inflation has kept up or surpassed income growth.

Interesting to note that if an inflation report that was more heavily weighted to consumer necessities (food, shelter, utilities, etc.) helping out the secondary market would likely take a back seat and the Fed would likely be more hawkish on its monetary policy stance.

Hi John,

The wholesalers have raised the prices- according to the shop owner. But I will be checking here from some of our local stores. Your right - it is really crazy how these everyday increases never appear to effect official inflation figures but we all know that we have less in our pockets to spend.
What worries me is that these items are basic necessities of living.
The answer to this inflation problem is not in my scope and I don't know if this will give the ECB more reason to raise interest rates faster. Punished from all sides-consumers suffer again.
What is really going on with our economies that is driving prices up so fast?
My fear of Stagflation may be approaching a reality. Then comes the great depression of the 2000's?
I thought the German train drivers were crazy asking for a 30% wage rise but now I can see their rationale behind the claim.
Also don't forget I am in Spain-Europe.

__________________
Keep in mind that neither success nor failure is ever final. --Roger Babson (1875-1967)
YTD +5%

we think that if the Fed cuts 25bp instead of 50bp we may actually get small relief rally."Ironically enough, if the Fed merely cuts by 25bp the greenback may regain some ground on a relief rally, as the EURUSD remains woefully overbought, although the latest data from the COT report shows that EUR longs have not increased from the week prior and remain lower than the highs reached in July. All in all the positioning data suggests that the pair has room to go a bit further and could hit 1.4500 this week. Yet that price may be achieved before the Fed announcement and in the classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic may actually correct after the Fed rate cut. "

No, John. I don't see a 100bp cut.

70% of retail traders are short EURUSD (long to short ratio is -2.33). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively selling EURUSD (short positions are up by 33.1%). In the past, when retail was short and selling more, the EURUSD has rallied in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO BUY EURUSD.

The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.44 as nearly 71% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -3.06 as 75% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 22.2% higher than yesterday and 13.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.7% lower than yesterday and 33.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.4% stronger than yesterday and 9.9% above its monthly average.

In the past, when retail was short and selling more, the EURUSD has rallied in the following days.


Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...715337428.html

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If futures is pricing in a likely 25 rate cut and the market has already priced that is it possible the dollar gains back some of it losses? I know wall street is hoping for a 50 point cut but how likely is that? Was a 50 point cut the favor by futures last month? im trying to decide if I should close my long positions....