stop still 2530 we might shoot to 2470 before close that will be nice rejection to the cross point , but any way i don't like market behavior late Friday .
Originally Posted by Clivewaverider
Indeed! But where now......
ED on short term 5 min chart, wave on 10min chart still only being tested (albeit close!) and the fib fan line that it touched for the wave 2 or B wave above, only just being retraced.
stop still 2530 we might shoot to 2470 before close that will be nice rejection to the cross point , but any way i don't like market behavior late Friday .
Roughly what we said first thing would happen - feels like it is waiting to do something to as many people as it can! It is days like this that I feel like trying to crack gridding again!
I have had to redo the timescales of my intraweek wave as I was losing perspective toggling between charts. I'll see if the 30min chart works better over the next couple of weeks. This wave runs 1-2days (blue), 12hrs-1day (charcoal) and the rest up to 12hrs in pink.
What a place to leave the market on a Friday night but I am forever intrigued as to how/who makes this happen: The whole retracement thus far is anchored between a regression channel as shown. This has been locked down based on the anchors highlighted.
I have then drawn in a live regression channel from the top which is housing all the action thus far. As this is live, it moves out to fit new price action, so it is the reaction to the old regression channel that we are interested in for now until we get a conclusive rejection.
In addition, I have overlaid the fib fan to the first 'A' wave of retracement thus far - again price action is somewhat poised!
Pretty clear that the market left it poised for Asian opening! Note the SMI at bottom of chart!!
Last edited by Clivewaverider; 06-08-2012 at 05:02 PM.
Hello, could you please tell me your smi settings for h1? I´d like to compare it with some indicators I use in my system.
H1? Do you mean a 1hr chart? I use the same setting across all time frames - '20/2/3 simple'. It is a blunt instrument on its own as just like stochastics, it is banded at 0-100% and can just sit in the oversold,overbought areas for all of the 5th wave which as we know can extend a long way! I prefer to use it in retracements to count out 3 waves or triangles, but nevertheless across multiple time frames, it can help to place the wave count and when to join the trend. Divergences show up all the time, but not all turn out to be turns!
So, on its own, not to be trusted, but as part of the storyboard, I think it helps.
Are you ready to share your work/settings Allan - we all want to improve.....
My weekend report on the EURUSD. I have not posted this for a while, but hope it is of some use.
I have placed the word document in a zip file and uploaded, as an attempt to get the images cleaner - do let me know if they are as clear your end as mine, so I know to do this again in this way.
Excellent interpretation for the charts , another way to see the fib fan ? , and the new 94.4 point , i have to re look at it to improve my fans .
Good luck Clive
Originally Posted by Clivewaverider
My weekend report on the EURUSD. I have not posted this for a while, but hope it is of some use.
I have placed the word document in a zip file and uploaded, as an attempt to get the images cleaner - do let me know if they are as clear your end as mine, so I know to do this again in this way.
Excellent interpretation for the charts , another way to see the fib fan ? , and the new 94.4 point , i have to re look at it to improve my fans .
Good luck Clive
Thanks Mozi32 - and to you too. I am obviously doing the shorter term fans too and was really interested at how you decided on the stops based on them - sort of clarified a few things for me last week on momentum and how they might work with my waves. Looking forward to the week ahead - even more so if price could test that 1.2287 low first!
Euro USD started the week by trading between 1.24 and 1.2540. It then broke higher but couldn’t make a move above the all-important 1.2624 line (mentioned last week). It then lost the high range and eventually closed at 1.2513.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
1.2873 is the previous 2011 low set in January, and it is distant resistance now. This is a very strong line separating ranges, as also seen in May 2012. 1.2814 is now stronger after being a clear line separating ranges in May 2012.
1.2760 is a pivotal line in the middle of a trading range seen earlier.. It provided support early in the year and is now of high importance. 1.2660 was a double bottom during January and the move below this line was confirmed after a struggle.
1.2623 is the previous 2012 low and remains important. Attempts to rise above this line have failed, including in June 2012. This is a critical resistance line separating ranges . Below, 1.2587 is a clear bottom on the weekly charts but is only minor resistance now.
1.2540 served as minor resistance and also support in June 2012. 1.2460 is minor support after stopping a euro rally in June 2012.
1.24. It provided some resistance in June 2010 and is now minor support. 1.2286 is a new minor line of support after being the swing low in June 2012.
Further below, 1.2330 is another historical line after being the trough following the global financial meltdown in 2008. The new 2012 low of 1.2288 is minor support now.
1.22 is minor support below, after serving as such in June 2010. 1.2144 is already a very strong line on the downside: it was a clear separator two years ago, when Greece received its first bailout.
The round number of 1.20 is of course highly important in the psychological level. Below, the 2010 trough of 1.1876 is apparent, before the launch value of the euro at 1.17 to the dollar in 1999.
Monthly 61.8% golden fib fan line from 1.6037 pivot seems to have held on back test thus far. Daily chart shows downside barrier in the 1.2550-1.2520 area which was conveniently gapped over on Sunday night. Break this and 1.2134 fib ratio from all time high low grid is on as far as I am concerned, although again, I am happy to take profits at test of recent 1.2287 low, if the trading gods would be so kind.
Interesting possibility of fractal repeat from c of A wave above - red circles mark out the comparison.
Obviously, the gap up is rather bullish to say the least and as I covered in the weekend report, if we have seen the 'b' wave already in this 4th wave of the 3rd (my assumption on EW count) then this is possibly a zigzag aiming towards the 1.2800 trend line break, although this could be a short C wave and we just get a weak 5th up here to test the overnight high to finish. Still prefer the test of the low as noted above whilst the gold fib fan lines hold to the upside. If that breaks however above Sunday night's high, well then the higher target looks feasible.
Last edited by Clivewaverider; 06-11-2012 at 04:22 AM.
really i don't see this gap bullish at all , and this gap was seen before on 10 may 2010 when they announce the bailout for Greece , and that was a top for the next leg down . i prefer to see an exhausting gap down before i decide for a bottom, that might come on the next weeks .
Good resistance 1.2680 - 1.2760
Originally Posted by Clivewaverider
Monthly 61.8% golden fib fan line from 1.6037 pivot seems to have held on back test thus far. Daily chart shows downside barrier in the 1.2550-1.2520 area which was conveniently gapped over on Sunday night. Break this and 1.2134 fib ratio from all time high low grid is on as far as I am concerned, although again, I am happy to take profits at test of recent 1.2287 low, if the trading gods would be so kind.
Interesting possibility of fractal repeat from c of A wave above - red circles mark out the comparison.
Obviously, the gap up is rather bullish to say the least and as I covered in the weekend report, if we have seen the 'b' wave already in this 4th wave of the 3rd (my assumption on EW count) then this is possibly a zigzag aiming towards the 1.2800 trend line break, although this could be a short C wave and we just get a weak 5th up here to test the overnight high to finish. Still prefer the test of the low as noted above whilst the gold fib fan lines hold to the upside. If that breaks however above Sunday night's high, well then the higher target looks feasible.
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Originally Posted by Franosh
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