The Purely Technical EUR/USD Trading Thread

[AV1]

This how I see it. Nice day

[fazi]

I was going to say "that is stating the blimming obvious" but it is so true, is it not. I sit here staring at my waves thinking, what we need is a good bounce that sticks and then maybe we will get our retracement. This is undoubtedly what the rest of the trillion $ market (guess!) is thinking too. Should have some venom in it, whatever the degree - a punchy zigzag (abc) will do me fine and possibly a few others riding their luck a tad close to the wire (or is it just me?).

My target for re-covering my longs is at the top of the 240min BB band - approx 1.2824 which is R3 today. Seems a long way off but I can hope.

Hi - there are big stops from interbank players above 1.28 - sooo probably - either no touch or much higher

edit: Asian CBs are on the offer from 1.27 - 1h kumo still holds - overall structure purely corrective - perhaps a spike slightly above 1.2758 (expanded flat)- below 1.262 heavy stops - a hell could be unleashed.

edit2: if the second gap was an acceleration gap then price should ...err... accelerate. A third gap (if occours) will be exhaustion gap, hence a good buy

Patryk

[AV1]

Hi - there are big stops from interbank players above 1.28 - sooo probably - either no touch or much higher

edit: Asian CBs are on the offer from 1.27 - 1h kumo still holds - overall structure purely corrective - perhaps a spike slightly above 1.2758 (expanded flat)- below 1.262 heavy stops - a hell could be unleashed.

edit2: if the second gap was an acceleration gap then price should ...err... accelerate. A third gap (if occours) will be exhaustion gap, hence a good buy

Patryk

Looking at Daily Stochastic, I haven't seen it like this since August 2008. And I am thinking seriously on changing my long term stance on EUR/USD. Be very very careful with longs anywhere.

[fazi]

Looking at Daily Stochastic, I haven't seen it like this since August 2008. And I am thinking seriously on changing my long term stance on EUR/USD. Be very very careful with longs anywhere.

one more thing: 1.25 -1.36 double no-touch option expires today - ussually big boys and CBs play DNTs so it will be all clear for the bottom to fall out - big DNTs are really hard to pop.

edit: 1.27 strike option is said to be 2B big - until it expires (10nY) not much movement I suppouse

Patryk

[Clivewaverider]

Hi - there are big stops from interbank players above 1.28 - sooo probably - either no touch or much higher

edit: Asian CBs are on the offer from 1.27 - 1h kumo still holds - overall structure purely corrective - perhaps a spike slightly above 1.2758 (expanded flat)- below 1.262 heavy stops - a hell could be unleashed.

edit2: if the second gap was an acceleration gap then price should ...err... accelerate. A third gap (if occours) will be exhaustion gap, hence a good buy

Patryk

The BB's were on 240min settings, so dropping quickly - maybe into consolidation. Price continually held in bearish side of my time squares (under thick blue line in previous chart) which is somewhat subduing bullish stabs up. 1.62x the potential first wave this morning gets to 1.2773 if that existing backtest holds as wave 2, so I'll be covered around there if surges fail to stick.

That MA band is the 100-200 period on an attenuation basis (as opposed to exponential, weighted, et al) - I have been watching how it works with the Hull MA (2day period 10) to both support trend and indicate change afoot. When the thin red (100) crosses up through the Hull, subtle changes seem to happening in underlying currents, even if price does not immediately follow.

I am hoping that price will now level off into the MA band, consolidate and provide base for a retracement - whether wave 4 of 3 or 4 of overall wave or anything else in fact as long as it goes up!

[Clivewaverider]

Well, Stan is not sharing with me over on the EW forum but I will give everything away until everyone tells me to shut up:

The thick blue line in the Pyrapoint chart is looking ready to crack - if it holds above, then this is the first bullish square since the drop started. I have also added in trend extensions on my Bollinger chart and 1.2800 ish would indeed make a good next stop.

Fingers crossed.

[Rasputin]

Is possible another fast jump to 2650, but before the end of the day eu will go up!
My target for today is 2750

I am just under it with target of 1.2744

[fazi]

The BB's were on 240min settings, so dropping quickly - maybe into consolidation. Price continually held in bearish side of my time squares (under thick blue line in previous chart) which is somewhat subduing bullish stabs up. 1.62x the potential first wave this morning gets to 1.2773 if that existing backtest holds as wave 2, so I'll be covered around there if surges fail to stick.

That MA band is the 100-200 period on an attenuation basis (as opposed to exponential, weighted, et al) - I have been watching how it works with the Hull MA (2day period 10) to both support trend and indicate change afoot. When the thin red (100) crosses up through the Hull, subtle changes seem to happening in underlying currents, even if price does not immediately follow.

I am hoping that price will now level off into the MA band, consolidate and provide base for a retracement - whether wave 4 of 3 or 4 of overall wave or anything else in fact as long as it goes up!

got it - thanks mate - that`s a nice grail you`re sharing with us here

1.272 and 1.276 - more interbank offers (decent) are parked

[Clivewaverider]

got it - thanks mate - that`s a nice grail you`re sharing with us here

1.272 and 1.276 - more interbank offers (decent) are parked

Sorry for being a clutz Patryk, but what does the last line actually mean - not my world exactly - is this buying or selling pressure lined up? If so, lines up with my square work where 1.2734 is a key line in the sand. I expect the blue line to be under severe pressure if it does hold above, so might be a grinder up hill for a bit. All I can do is try and count to 13 and cover before the likely deep retracement back.

[Clivewaverider]

Last chart for a bit.

This is the daily chart I am using with fibo time lines. We can see that price breached the trend line at bottom and to get back above will mean taking at 1.2775. It is right on the 50% fibo time line of the last wave down from 1.4939, if that wave was complete (familiar argument!). This high is also from where I am working my time squares (squares roots etc based on Gann/Hall).

If the 1.2623 low is taken out, me think the last wave down that I am basing the time lines on, is not complete, but if it holds and we work back into the consolidation zone, then I still routing for a C wave up (but will take anything as previously mentioned).

The time line telegraphed something, just what is the guessy bit!

Catch up later.

[fazi]

Sorry for being a clutz Patryk, but what does the last line actually mean - not my world exactly - is this buying or selling pressure lined up? If so, lines up with my square work where 1.2734 is a key line in the sand. I expect the blue line to be under severe pressure if it does hold above, so might be a grinder up hill for a bit. All I can do is try and count to 13 and cover before the likely deep retracement back.

Here is 1h ichi chart - kumo still holds but gets thin in the near future.

black 80 linear weighted MA - rejects every move since the first gap from wedge breakout
blue - 80 sma
white - 80 ema

4h kijun sen is 1.2769 - could be touched on a spike.

Time patterns for cable suggest a bottom today (I`m not sure if it is in- in fact I suspect a serious dump later on) , a top on monday and a bottom wed-fri - 2-4 corrective days and a final push lower towards medium term bottom (2 weeks away at least)

[AV1]

Well I'm offended here, my posts are being dragged from here to another threads that i don't want to post. I'm away....It's been nice so far...

[Clivewaverider]

Well I'm offended here, my posts are being dragged from here to another threads that i don't want to post. I'm away....It's been nice so far...

I just noticed that too - all a bit confusing. Just so I know, I am writing in the 'Purely EUR/USD Thread' only - anything appearing else where has been copied from here but not be me.

[Gregory McLeod]

Well I'm offended here, my posts are being dragged from here to another threads that i don't want to post. I'm away....It's been nice so far...

I am sorry if you are offended. I will not repost your material. I did mention that I would do so and no one had any objections at the time. I respect your wishes.

Honestly, it appears a little hypocritical that you would want the moderator to move others post without regard for their wishes, however are offended that I do move yours.

But, I do understand your views and will not repost your material.
If there are others that feel the same way, please let me know by responding to this post.

If you would like your material reposted, you can indicate so on your post.

[Franosh]

After I logged out, I'm back here to tell you that's been so nice communicating here, and other people as well.
I won't be back unless something is improved. I don't like being played. I simply suggested to improve something that had no sense (posting other pairs on EUR/USD) simply because people were lazy and were afraid wouldn't be watched. And Eur/Usd thread only yesterday was invaded by nonsense postings that has to do nothing with the respected pair. If you want to follow BONDS for this pair then I wonder what you're going to watch for BONDS. That never stops.
And today after this thread reached over thousand views, I am being played, like I am posting in two threads.

OK, so your little hissy-fit is about my bond chart. Let me explain a bit. That post was a reply to quite a few others who said that they found USD/JPY confusing and hard to trade. If one only squits at the charts, lot of the things don't make sense, because the markets are inter-related and there is a macro environment out there. Bonds are important not just because it's a grand-daddy and move markets, it's important to $/Y because of the role of Yen as a funding currency. If you listen to the feed in the S&P pit in CME, Ben comments on Bonds, golds, and Euro currency futures and a few other markets constantly for people trading ES because no market really stands on its own these days, and many who trade other indices also listen to the pit feed for that reason.

EUR/USD does not exist on its own, and as euro is a major of the majors and in the spot market linked to the dollar, it's affected by many other factors, politicics or other markets. I was not even suggesting that one should look at bonds all the time to trade euro. But since you mentioned, it in fact would not hurt and will certainly help immensely to have a bit more awareness of the macros and other factors at work.

Well, today is Friday and there is my little hissy-fit this time round. I had thought the forum became quite jovial with a good mix of fundamentals and techs since I came back a couple of months ago. Perhaps I am wrong and should stay with my little Skype group because it's like what jibiggart said: a group of people who don't take themselves too seriously and enjoy a bit of jovial banter.... and we also share charts of other markets too.

Have a nice weekend all.