The Purely Technical EUR/USD Trading Thread

[Clivewaverider]

I was in two minds how to write that - the move itself is bullish as prices went up some in the context of a retracement, but its eventual outcome not necessarily, given what we seeing on the fib fans and EW counts. I note CodyB comment on banks wanting to sell higher and wouldn't we all, and if they can't move the market on the bail out news, when can they. I have been short/scalping additional positions overnight and this morning as my 4hr bolly's were up in the 3SD's and the 30min & 5min stochmoms overbought too. I am hoping for that stubby 5th up to complete the C wave of the 4th and down we go - problem I got is the market doing as I want in between!!

[CodyB]

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Failure At $1.2670 Puts Focus On Downside Gap
RES 4: $1.2825 High 21 May
RES 3: $1.2787 50.0% of $1.3284 to $1.2290
RES 2: $1.2726 Low 21 May
RES 1: $1.2670 38.2% of $1.3284 to $1.2290
LATEST PRICE: $1.2570
SUP 1: $1.2553/85 50.0% of $1.2436-$1.2671, 21-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.2517/24 Gap base from 8 June close,38.2% of $1.2288-$1.2670
SUP 3: $1.2437 Low 8 June
SUP 4: $1.2387 Low 4 June

Gains so far halted around $1.2670 Fibonacci level -- 38.2%
of $1.3284 to $1.2290 move and failure to break above here leaves risk
of filling downside gap to $1.2517 and retracement to $1.2524, which is
the 38.2% of $1.2288-$1.2670 and also coincides with the 61.8% of the
$1.2436 to $1.2671.

[Clivewaverider]

I have covered my shorts here at 1.2569 and hope for a spike up or down to release one side or the other. Preference is for a test of last night's top and and ending pattern/selling signal to top up shorts and release longs.

EW count on short term moves attached - might be a bit early covering, but not want to lose gains from this morning and it is Monday!

[CodyB]

I was in two minds how to write that - the move itself is bullish as prices went up some in the context of a retracement, but its eventual outcome not necessarily, given what we seeing on the fib fans and EW counts. I note CodyB comment on banks wanting to sell higher and wouldn't we all, and if they can't move the market on the bail out news, when can they. I have been short/scalping additional positions overnight and this morning as my 4hr bolly's were up in the 3SD's and the 30min & 5min stochmoms overbought too. I am hoping for that stubby 5th up to complete the C wave of the 4th and down we go - problem I got is the market doing as I want in between!!

the market has seen the bailout as a positive regardless if it is or not in the long run. call it a 'hope' rally if you will but chances of risk gaining a foothold this week is pretty strong overall. risk could rally over the next few days, concerns about Europe are fading with the announcement of the Spanish aid package, and hopes for Asian growth are supported by recent strength in the Chinese data. midterm I am still bearish but this week I am neutral to bullish now

I am watching for the 2524 area now for my next moves

[Clivewaverider]

the market has seen the bailout as a positive regardless if it is or not in the long run. call it a 'hope' rally if you will but chances of risk gaining a foothold this week is pretty strong overall. risk could rally over the next few days, concerns about Europe are fading with the announcement of the Spanish aid package, and hopes for Asian growth are supported by recent strength in the Chinese data. midterm I am still bearish but this week I am neutral to bullish now

I am watching for the 2524 area now for my next moves

In the weekend report, I had got 14th June as a potential turn date on the daily chart utilising the 1.4939 pivot high for the price/time squaring calcs with the next weekly turn, based on the 1.6037 high, at 3rd August. Leaving aside the utility of such calcs, it is in the back of my mind, especially given this gap up, that we might have a few days working our way up before coming back in line with the bigger trend, according to my waves anyhow.

Thanks for that book CodyB - was a quick read and full of home truths!!

[MOZI32]

good day , plan as it is , i keep looking for more down stop for current move again above the 1.2530 , target 1.2350 if we can close below on weekly so i m looking for at least 1.2130

i have add charts , i found also the 200 MA is around same level could be a resistance , a break above 1.2530/45 will show us 1.26 again and will put us in a range .
a break below 1.2430/50 should show 1.2350 .

Good luck

really i don't see this gap bullish at all , and this gap was seen before on 10 may 2010 when they announce the bailout for Greece , and that was a top for the next leg down . i prefer to see an exhausting gap down before i decide for a bottom, that might come on the next weeks .
Good resistance 1.2680 - 1.2760

[Clivewaverider]

We are still in that 4th of 3rd wave correction as far as I can see - have attached short term count and fan work - looking for 5 waves up now, although scratching my head at what degree we are, although ignoring it for the moment. This could of course be wave 2 up after wave 1 down yesterday, in the 5th....? Also attached 4hr wave chart with channel boundary.

The intra day fans seem to be working very well for entries and exits. Although I continue to suffer amateur psychological 'episodes' with my trading, the actual fans seem to see through the noise. Take this morning's fan for example. Assuming the count is right, it basically confirms that the initial move away from the first 'a' wave is either a higher 'a' wave (needing the fan to be redrawn) or an expanding flat, because price has got to come back to allow safe entry. It did not quite make it to the 85.4% line (and maybe that is still coming), but it was close for a tightish entry. This is not going to work all of the time on all degrees, but it might be safer to ignore any waves that do not return to the 85.4% line or very close to it, for fear of having to wider stops. Just thinking aloud.

[Clivewaverider]

This is how I am counting it at the moment in EW terms - still waiting for big spike up!

[MOZI32]

This is how I am counting it at the moment in EW terms - still waiting for big spike up!

i thought we ended wave 2 abc, and we starting the wave 3 down in 5 , i m not an EW expert , but a move above 1.2530/40 will delay things and risk a move 1.2620

i will add short on 1.2450 break with stop in last one 1.2485 and all rest 1.2537 .

[Clivewaverider]

i thought we ended wave 2 abc, and we starting the wave 3 down in 5 , i m not an EW expert , but a move above 1.2530/40 will delay things and risk a move 1.2620

i will add short on 1.2450 break with stop in last one 1.2485 and all rest 1.2537 .

Nor me! Wave 1 down and 2 done in an abc could be it and I got shorts at 1.2450 too - but I think the gap up Sunday, trip down yesterday may have been a & b of a flat in the next part of the overall 4th of the 3rd - we would then be in the c wave of that flat to make a more complex correction overall and burn some time. I think the target is the 1.2700 ish area where the 61.8 fib line of the golden fan on the monthly chart from the weekend sits.

What do I know Mozi32 - my turn date from the pyrapoint/gann calcs was tomorrow, so another day up today to test the monthly pivot would fit is all and give everyone a headache from seasickness. I would be very happy with that outcome, so I am wishing it on the market.

[MOZI32]

Nor me! Wave 1 down and 2 done in an abc could be it and I got shorts at 1.2450 too - but I think the gap up Sunday, trip down yesterday may have been a & b of a flat in the next part of the overall 4th of the 3rd - we would then be in the c wave of that flat to make a more complex correction overall and burn some time. I think the target is the 1.2700 ish area where the 61.8 fib line of the golden fan on the monthly chart from the weekend sits.

What do I know Mozi32 - my turn date from the pyrapoint/gann calcs was tomorrow, so another day up today to test the monthly pivot would fit is all and give everyone a headache from seasickness. I would be very happy with that outcome, so I am wishing it on the market.

i have to admit that i have bigger fans at 1.2700/20 from weekly and monthly , where also should be strong again , but the failure gap on bailout on a black candle and due the Greece election on Sunday , they might be in hurry to move down before Sunday , any way i m keeping my self with some good stop points .

Good luck

[Clivewaverider]

i have to admit that i have bigger fans at 1.2700/20 from weekly and monthly , where also should be strong again , but the failure gap on bailout on a black candle and due the Greece election on Sunday , they might be in hurry to move down before Sunday , any way i m keeping my self with some good stop points .

Good luck

That is what I am thinking - the fan down from 1.6037 (my gold one on the monthly chart in the weekend report)) saw the 61.8% fail but has not been backtested since the last cut through - it looks close on my monthly chart but not on the daily - just perhaps there is some big money there. In addition there is that 1.2800 ish area where the main trendline from June 2010 to Jan 2012 resides. Whether it is this time around or after the 5th of the 3rd down, me not know, but maybe someone thinks it isn't come back, and wants to sell there this time around.

We shall see of course!

[Clivewaverider]

I almost don't care anymore with this tape, but given what I said this morning about not trusting a turn until the pull back to the 85.4%.....well look at this chart now. It looks like 1, abc in an expanded flat for 2, then 1 followed by abc for a zigzag - so 1-2,1-2. Doing my head in, it is.

However, with no thought whatsoever but " I will not buy until the 85.4% line is hit" - well 23 pips was the risk for hanging around and waiting. Do not know if it will go up now, but this approach may be easier than trying to count!!

[Luxuriant]

I almost don't care anymore with this tape, but given what I said this morning about not trusting a turn until the pull back to the 85.4%.....well look at this chart now. It looks like 1, abc in an expanded flat for 2, then 1 followed by abc for a zigzag - so 1-2,1-2. Doing my head in, it is.

However, with no thought whatsoever but " I will not buy until the 85.4% line is hit" - well 23 pips was the risk for hanging around and waiting. Do not know if it will go up now, but this approach may be easier than trying to count!!

Hello my friend

Clive. Double Zig-Zag ABC-ABC,or ABC-(FlatX)-ABC (Correction from the larger fall) The move from 1.26650 to 1.2440 looks impulsive? One more shallow move up? Then another impulsive move down. Torward the end of this week, and though next week.I don't believe the rally in US markets can continue for an extended time. USD weakness is only a correction. USD/CHF, USD/CAD, USD/RUB all small corrections. USD starting to look Bullish in the days to come..Big picture for EUR is bearish. I don't want to miss the next big move down. My stop will prove me wrong. Thoughts, comments?

EDIT: "We use WXY to denote a double zigzag, instead of the standard ABCXABC Elliott notation. For the triple zigzag, this becomes WXYX²Z". From EW

[CodyB]

here is the fan using an old indicator that plots them for you...dont know much about them so dont know if this thing is even close but here is a screen shot..

if its not a good pic just ctrl+ on the page not on the inage and it will blow it up nice