Clive, what made you so convinced that this whole correction must be a wave 4 before it goes to the dungeon? The big wave D in EW on daily/weekly could have finished in a w-x-y-xx-z formation or in Neowave terms the 5th leg D in a diametric could have finished too. I think most of those 'pros' out there twitted that nothing signaled the end of a down trend better than when retails try hard to short every up tick.
Clive, what made you so convinced that this whole correction must be a wave 4 before it goes to the dungeon? The big wave D in EW on daily/weekly could have finished in a w-x-y-xx-z formation or in Neowave terms the 5th leg D in a diametric could have finished too. I think most of those 'pros' out there twitted that nothing signaled the end of a down trend better than when retails try hard to short every up tick.
Just to clarify: are you saying 'could we be in an E wave up now' and thus the 1-5 of the prior C wave in the D is complete? If so, of course we can. I trade the intraday and intra week waves as they pan out - the rest is joining in the dots. I was long yesterday in oppositon to most and breakeven with short today. I posted my EW chart for the journey down since 1.3283 earlier in the week but in summary, this turn up from 1.2287 is such a choppy affair, it has got to be corrective in my opinion. As such, I would expect to see a retest at least of the low, even if it fails. Are you happy with this tape as confirmation of an impulse of a new trend up?
I am not in the main an EWaver, DolceVista - did you see my weekend report? I try and use what I can to keep on the right side of the trend - not always right mind you!!
Last edited by Clivewaverider; 06-14-2012 at 02:01 PM.
I don't really take EW too seriously in the sense that I think it's misleading in some ways. Technically speaking, momentum moves are vulnerable moves, while choppy but solid moves where price moves back and forth filling space up and down are more sustainable because it doesn't leave any vulnerability to attract price back for a revisit. This doesn't square with EW, or perhaps EW doesn't square with this technical/mechanical side of order flows. There can be so many different way of counts and many outright contradictory so to me it's not really a tradable tool, just something to keep a perspective.
No, I have not read your weekend report, haven't gone back enough pages. Technically the Jan low rejection of the price seems weak as it couldn't manage to push price down much, and each push ended up with a higher low, and price kept coming back up to knock on the door. On both 4H and daily it can be seen with 3 pushes to the downside but all with a higher low. That's how I read the current price action. It might go down again, but I am looking for a yearly low to be put in, if not in already.
One more go at shorting the 85.4% line and thats it for today - only 7 pips risk with this one.
Will it be another fruitless journey?
Nope!! 25 pips in 15 mins - move to breakeven as per the others today and see if anything sticks a bit more substantial. there is probably a very good living to be made off these short term moves based on compounding but for now I am after a little bit more given where the charts might be.
nice that 85.4 , i was trying 78.6 most of times , but seems depending on time frame ?
I think where we are at is somewhere close to the pivot and we are happy! What this fan world has shown me is there is a line nearer than 'hope' and one may as well wait for that to be touched before pulling the trigger. I am not wedded on 85.4% but prefer to wait for at least that on the 5 min chart. My fear gauge needs those tight entries now.
As far as today is concerned, i would have loved to have gone long after yesterday but not off the daily pivot - rather waste my day trying to catch something backward first. another day tomorrow beckons.
I don't really take EW too seriously in the sense that I think it's misleading in some ways. Technically speaking, momentum moves are vulnerable moves, while choppy but solid moves where price moves back and forth filling space up and down are more sustainable because it doesn't leave any vulnerability to attract price back for a revisit. This doesn't square with EW, or perhaps EW doesn't square with this technical/mechanical side of order flows. There can be so many different way of counts and many outright contradictory so to me it's not really a tradable tool, just something to keep a perspective.
No, I have not read your weekend report, haven't gone back enough pages. Technically the Jan low rejection of the price seems weak as it couldn't manage to push price down much, and each push ended up with a higher low, and price kept coming back up to knock on the door. On both 4H and daily it can be seen with 3 pushes to the downside but all with a higher low. That's how I read the current price action. It might go down again, but I am looking for a yearly low to be put in, if not in already.
Well for starters, there are no 'counts' in it!
Thanks DolceVista - this is why I find trading so enjoyable - we can all have similar or opposing views, but it makes no difference to the market and what it will actually do. I have tried to keep my 'forecasting/weekend' work separate from trading for a living, cause the latter can not fail, whereas the former can. Be good to see you here more often with some charts and strategies DV: all goes in the pot my end.
I don't really take EW too seriously in the sense that I think it's misleading in some ways. Technically speaking, momentum moves are vulnerable moves, while choppy but solid moves where price moves back and forth filling space up and down are more sustainable because it doesn't leave any vulnerability to attract price back for a revisit. This doesn't square with EW, or perhaps EW doesn't square with this technical/mechanical side of order flows. There can be so many different way of counts and many outright contradictory so to me it's not really a tradable tool, just something to keep a perspective.
cause most of those EWavers out there are not sure of their own count, they either have a few count or are loss in their own count
pros will stick to one count and not have multiple count, if u see their label have multiple count, it mean they are not sure.
do u see a pro driver steering left and right and not sure which road to turn into?
see real pros and you will know what real ew power is
anyway, me not going to convert you, each has his own "religion" ....lol
cheers
ps: ahem..when u can see what others dont, then u are there
I'll post the longer term charts later but yet again, after 3 breakeven/failed attempts yesterday, I am still trying to short this potential 'top' again.
Pip risk was 7 pips again at the 85.4% line from 1.2645.
I am sure, some will be saying you was stopped out because you were going against trend, but I believe that a turn is imminent based on all the reasons I have posted already since the weekend. It has cost me nothing but time and pride trying to catch this puppy, but okay with me as I was long where I wanted to be during the week, but not here. If it grinds higher then I'll look again around the 1.2706 area. I have added pyrapoint calcs on to the 30 min chart to help see what I see.
I won't be going into the weekend with any exposure, so whatever we can get out of today will be it till Monday.
Last edited by Clivewaverider; 06-15-2012 at 05:43 AM.
also we hit the 85.4 fan from 1.2822 top ., a fall to 1.2500 later today is quite possible .
Originally Posted by Clivewaverider
I'll post the longer term charts later but yet again, after 3 breakeven/failed attempts yesterday, I am still trying to short this potential 'top' again.
Pip risk was 7 pips again at the 85.4% line from 1.2645.
I am sure, some will be saying you was stopped out because you were going against trend, but I believe that a turn is imminent based on all the reasons I have posted already since the weekend. It has cost me nothing but time and pride trying to catch this puppy, but okay with me as I was long where I wanted to be during the week, but not here. If it grinds higher then I'll look again around the 1.2706 area. I have added pyrapoint calcs on to the 30 min chart to help see what I see.
I won't be going into the weekend with any exposure, so whatever we can get out of today will be it till Monday.
also we hit the 85.4 fan from 1.2822 top ., a fall to 1.2500 later today is quite possible .
Now that is interesting - I had not drawn that one in as it is drawn down to the bottom of the C wave rather than the interim A wave which is my 'rule' thus far (made up mind you!). It would seem, that any top or bottom will do for some confluence to show up. Good spot Mozi32 (do you have a name?)
1.2565 and then 1.2495 are my two bus stops today - straight from the 30min chart. Those pyrapoint/gann calcs are very interesting in hindsight - will try to make more use of them going forward.
sure , Yasser
i love when we share what we know about technical at the end we can improve more and more ..
Good luck
Originally Posted by Clivewaverider
Now that is interesting - I had not drawn that one in as it is drawn down to the bottom of the C wave rather than the interim A wave which is my 'rule' thus far (made up mind you!). It would seem, that any top or bottom will do for some confluence to show up. Good spot Mozi32 (do you have a name?)
1.2565 and then 1.2495 are my two bus stops today - straight from the 30min chart. Those pyrapoint/gann calcs are very interesting in hindsight - will try to make more use of them going forward.
It is quite clear that the fan from 1.2667 to 1.2449 (gap high reaction low) has been the uphill ladder for the climb up through the fan from 1.2287, as per my 30 min chart already posted. It will likely be the ladder down too, given this lower high at 1.2645 thus far.
There can be no doubt at all that these fans provide a clear map of the maze. The trick now is to master the GPS! I for one keep pressing the wrong buttons every now and then, but hopefully..... I do hope a lot!
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Originally Posted by DolceVista 
