The Purely Technical EUR/USD Trading Thread

[Clivewaverider]

I know there are lots of EW counts out there, but I continue to stick with the one in front of my nose and can not worry too much about what I do not know or have yet to find out.

The chart posted continues with the ongoing theme that we have ended the 3rd wave in the 3rd down and we are now in some sort of 4th of the 3rd correction, mostly based on the fact that the wave/price action has been overlapping and choppy, notwithstanding flashes of impulsive nature.

I had been assuming that we were making out the last leg of that 4th wave ( the C wave) but the very overlapping nature of this move up, including the gaps, expanding flats galore etc, and failure thus far to make a new high, do not lead me to conclude that this is in fact the case. This move coming back down then, might be the 5th wave we have been waiting for but it might just be a bigger 'b' wave - it could even create a new low, just like the 'b' wave already seen on Monday/Tuesday to make an overall expanding flat correction.

So instead of the current count shown (a, b and perhaps truncated c for 4th of the 3rd to finish), we would have 'a' up, then 'a' down, 'b' up just completing which might explain the messy nature of the beast, we then get a striking 'b' down to test the 1.2287 low or take it out by a few pips, then we get a real 'C' wave up. Of course everyone will be thinking the 5th is out of the way and pile into the C wave as the start of the bigger 4th wave up and on we go.......

Anyhow, hope this makes sense - either 5th of the 3rd or 'b' wave for a flat or expanding flat still in the 4th of the 3rd. My count, don't shout!

Of course, none of this will come to pass unless we see some convinction downhill first!!

[MOZI32]

very possible scenario , as you said we need some to see some conviction downhill

I know there are lots of EW counts out there, but I continue to stick with the one in front of my nose and can not worry too much about what I do not know or have yet to find out.

The chart posted continues with the ongoing theme that we have ended the 3rd wave in the 3rd down and we are now in some sort of 4th of the 3rd correction, mostly based on the fact that the wave/price action has been overlapping and choppy, notwithstanding flashes of impulsive nature.

I had been assuming that we were making out the last leg of that 4th wave ( the C wave) but the very overlapping nature of this move up, including the gaps, expanding flats galore etc, and failure thus far to make a new high, do not lead me to conclude that this is in fact the case. This move coming back down then, might be the 5th wave we have been waiting for but it might just be a bigger 'b' wave - it could even create a new low, just like the 'b' wave already seen on Monday/Tuesday to make an overall expanding flat correction.

So instead of the current count shown (a, b and perhaps truncated c for 4th of the 3rd to finish), we would have 'a' up, then 'a' down, 'b' up just completing which might explain the messy nature of the beast, we then get a striking 'b' down to test the 1.2287 low or take it out by a few pips, then we get a real 'C' wave up. Of course everyone will be thinking the 5th is out of the way and pile into the C wave as the start of the bigger 4th wave up and on we go.......

Anyhow, hope this makes sense - either 5th of the 3rd or 'b' wave for a flat or expanding flat still in the 4th of the 3rd. My count, don't shout!

Of course, none of this will come to pass unless we see some convinction downhill first!!

[Clivewaverider]

I am sure it was Franosh who said trading needed the ability to be happy with deferred gratification. Well I think we are gotta chance here to get them rewards.

If this is the 'c' wave of the aforementioned 'B' wave then I see the 90% requirement of wave A (1.2287- 1.2667) would take us down towards the 1.618 of the 1.2667-1.2449 move (a) - that being 1.2320 ish area. Now would that not be sweet! Shame this weekend has got to get in the way.

Lets see where we get to by tonight......

[stanchiam]

I know there are lots of EW counts out there, but I continue to stick with the one in front of my nose and can not worry too much about what I do not know or have yet to find out.

The chart posted continues with the ongoing theme that we have ended the 3rd wave in the 3rd down and we are now in some sort of 4th of the 3rd correction, mostly based on the fact that the wave/price action has been overlapping and choppy, notwithstanding flashes of impulsive nature.

I had been assuming that we were making out the last leg of that 4th wave ( the C wave) but the very overlapping nature of this move up, including the gaps, expanding flats galore etc, and failure thus far to make a new high, do not lead me to conclude that this is in fact the case. This move coming back down then, might be the 5th wave we have been waiting for but it might just be a bigger 'b' wave - it could even create a new low, just like the 'b' wave already seen on Monday/Tuesday to make an overall expanding flat correction.

So instead of the current count shown (a, b and perhaps truncated c for 4th of the 3rd to finish), we would have 'a' up, then 'a' down, 'b' up just completing which might explain the messy nature of the beast, we then get a striking 'b' down to test the 1.2287 low or take it out by a few pips, then we get a real 'C' wave up. Of course everyone will be thinking the 5th is out of the way and pile into the C wave as the start of the bigger 4th wave up and on we go.......

Anyhow, hope this makes sense - either 5th of the 3rd or 'b' wave for a flat or expanding flat still in the 4th of the 3rd. My count, don't shout!

Of course, none of this will come to pass unless we see some convinction downhill first!!

nice, but in order to have even more conviction on your own count, remove all those question mark
remove what you think is of lower probability and stick with it, no more possible this possible that, at most u got it wrong
that is the fast track way to train your subconscious mind
giving yourself so many probable count will only confuse your subconscious mind and will screw you up indirectly
trust yourself...cheers

[Clivewaverider]

nice, but in order to have even more conviction on your own count, remove all those question mark
remove what you think is of lower probability and stick with it, no more possible this possible that, at most u got it wrong
that is the fast track way to train your subconscious mind
giving yourself so many probable count will only confuse your subconscious mind and will screw you up indirectly
trust yourself...cheers

Thank you Stanchiam - I even think that was a small compliment in there!! I'd be writing over on the EW thread if I was confident enough but understand your comments.
I am attempting to encourage all sorts of technical approaches here on this thread and hope to get some ewavers and others (fib fans etc) involved in drilling down into consensus on direction.

Might be like squeezing jelly mind you and perhaps a stalwart, " this is it" might be more appropriate from me. It is not my thread, although not too many of us here at the moment. I'll ponder. I am not trading the longer waves as you will have seen, but trying to keep on the right side of the storyboard so that my intraday trades keep racking up the monies. Obviously EW is a useful tool, so I'll try harder, especially if you are going to be so nice to me!!

[Clivewaverider]

Quite an exciting weekend really - Greece get through the European Cup qualifying stages and then maintain the status quo politically. I wonder which one the 'people' would have enjoyed more!!

Early morning trade seemed to materialise yet again - the 85.4% retracement of the Asian high or low. This time around, I have banked the monies rather than sit there like a lemon. The average daily range for the past 30 days is 112 pips. I entered at 1.2721, smack on the 85.4% line with a stop of 1.2748, just above the Asian high at 27 pips risked. I closed the short at 1.2632, banking 89 pips of the daily range.

The Asian low was 1.2671 and the asian mean (of the high and low after 0.00am) was 1.2698 - I will look to reshort in that zone if we get confirmation. If not, will wait for it to go higher nearer 1.2800 perhaps.

The data feed for my intermediate chart has gone awol this morning, so can not do any fan work really - however, today's high was in line with the longer term fans we looked at last week, bouncing in the right area and was also in amongst the 4hr bolly bands (2.5x). Good place to short this morning - happy to have banked after watching the pips dry up last week.

[DolceVista]

Expecting support at 50% or 61.8% retracement, targeting 2812.

[Clivewaverider]

Expecting support at 50% or 61.8% retracement, targeting 2812.

Had my eye on that - almost looks too obvious to go straight back to it but will short it if we get there for sure - 2 year wave attached that I been following.

We do seem to have unfinished business down at 1.2287, so this was not at the top of my agenda without something easing the tension. This is why I thought a 'B' wave down might be easier on the soul than a zigzag all the way there. But the market will do what the market will do, so I'll just shut up and stay with the program. Defo not going long anywhere mind you unless we go down and test that 1.2287 first.

[DolceVista]

I use MAs mostly as a trend guide but not as potential supply/demand area. The most important thing to me in trading is only market structure in Dow Theory. Everything else is just a tool to assist finding entry. Speaking of market structure, depending on what timeframe one trades on, Euro has been making higher highs and higher lows on 4H and daily including taking out previous swing highs. That's up trend for me. If it takes out 2824, the daily down trend is all dead. The control swing to the down side is at 2442 for a switch to down trend, too far away at the moment. No lower low so far.... until then

Looking over euro chart, it does not have a history of double or rounded bottoms. V-shape bottom is more of its thing. As for whatever waves, when the moves are all finished, I am sure people would find a new way to count it.

[Clivewaverider]

Down move has used up all of the daily range off the Asian Median - almost to the pip. Given also the 85.45 fib fan entry this morning, this all looks very 'calculated'. Looks like I could have had some more pips out of my short, but must not be greedy!

Obviously, we expect a move higher from here (whether we get it is another matter) but will we get another leg up in the retracement (perhaps 5 in C?) or was this 1 down? Don't know as ever, but looking forward to something higher to short again.

[MOZI32]

morning resistance near important long term fan at 1.2750 could be enough to retest the low
alternative if we break 1.2750 /80 again which is unlikely for me , we will have the next strong one at 1.2910

Down move has used up all of the daily range off the Asian Median - almost to the pip. Given also the 85.45 fib fan entry this morning, this all looks very 'calculated'. Looks like I could have had some more pips out of my short, but must not be greedy!

Obviously, we expect a move higher from here (whether we get it is another matter) but will we get another leg up in the retracement (perhaps 5 in C?) or was this 1 down? Don't know as ever, but looking forward to something higher to short again.

[Clivewaverider]

morning resistance near important long term fan at 1.2750 could be enough to retest the low
alternative if we break 1.2750 /80 again which is unlikely for me , we will have the next strong one at 1.2910

Now that is interesting Yasser. I spent some time over the weekend working out the daily ranges over the rolling 3 months and weekly ranges over a rolling year. From today's low, if we add the weekly range (320 pip average over 52 weeks), we get 1.2900. With that Ending Diagonal today pushing the daily average range to the max , it could be the institutions are making room for themselves to take out that 1.2800ish ledge with the weekly range - there will be a lot of stops there me thinks and great fuel for another drop.

I know I said I wouldn't this morning, but have taken a long at 1.2580 when price popped out of the ED to the downside. Will see if we get any energy uphill, else back to the asian low at 1.2671 for a retrace.

I just got some bad news about my data feed for the software I run the fans on and lots of work for me in short term to sort. As if trading were not enough for me to focus on!

[Clivewaverider]

morning resistance near important long term fan at 1.2750 could be enough to retest the low
alternative if we break 1.2750 /80 again which is unlikely for me , we will have the next strong one at 1.2910

I just spotted the fan on my daily chart - thanks Yasser - my intra data from 3rd June disappeared!

[DolceVista]

New moon tonight/tomorrow. Since euro is dropping into this cycle point, might be a timeline for a fast long. 2517 is 50%.

Edit: added a chart

[MOZI32]

I just spotted the fan on my daily chart - thanks Yasser - my intra data from 3rd June disappeared!

the red points are the levels on the way up if it goes up from here , first one 1.2750 is very strong in my opinion coming from big fan ,

1.6035 and 0.8226 cross .. imagine .

i like the timing of the cross .., and cross change by time .

Good luck

if you cannot see the chart clear , do control + as cody say

for short term , i like to buy the break of 1.2610 for a retrac with stop below today at the same time 1.2610 is my trail stop for my short from 1.2685.