The Purely Technical EUR/USD Trading Thread

[Paul Chin]

I've expected 1.245 to hold for a push higher, instead it reaches a low of 1.24353 before holding now around 1.248, below the support cloud.



It's reasonable to expect 1.2515 to hold for a push down, in accordance to the larger trend. However, this kind of breach to the lower side and not followed by a strong momentum is usually a fade move, and I believe it to be so, and thus the new target will become 1.2767.

Of course there's no certainty in this trading business. Just like the weather, we can only try to deduce the coming storm, and prepare for it, or we can wait for the storm to come and take actions.

It's individual preferences really. The mind is always more relaxed when trade is entered, while ready to be stopped out. Good luck!

It's been a while since last posted. Trying to keep it to the minimal - though I still look at traders' views from time to time quietly...

We are at a critical level where I expect support to kick in to finally lead to the upside target of 1.2767.
If it doesn't, then very likely, this upside correction is over, and the initial downside target will be 1.2516



Good luck! As always.

[Gnarly]

Nice trade Gnarly

TY Clive, target hit

[Clivewaverider]

It's been a while since last posted. Trying to keep it to the minimal - though I still look at traders' views from time to time quietly...

We are at a critical level where I expect support to kick in to finally lead to the upside target of 1.2767.
If it doesn't, then very likely, this upside correction is over, and the initial downside target will be 1.2516



Good luck! As always.

Deafeningly quiet Mr Chin - I obviously prefer my wave to hold formation and shunt down to 1.2535! Come what may, come what may.

[Nature Boy]

Enjoyed the view; nice work - is CD wave theory your own work or is it available elsewhere - nothing came up on Google.

Hi Clivewaverider

The Theory is my brain child. In the near future when the book is done with a supporting website you will be able to find it on Google.

Cheers.

[stanchiam]

It is absolutely silly to short until this Trend Line is broken cleanly. Further more its surpassed the 200 SMA. Wait till confirmation before hopping aboard! easy Stuff!

hmm.. i was onboard right at the peak, guess either i am silly or just lucky....lol

hope this drop can continue so i can rest in peace
just kidding, cheers

[Clivewaverider]

Price has made it back down to the gold (for up) 2 day Hull MA (30min chart) and is now knocking on the bear door, and for now is being contained by the daily bollinger bands (240min chart -White 2.5SD). Recall, we have been in a 4th wave correction since 1.2287 (I am still assuming in the 3rd wave down of C), so when this puppy finally gets going, this should be an impulsive 5th wave.

We have not yet made it out of the weekly ascending channel ( blue lines in 30 min chart) and any move down is going to want to retest the gold Hull MA until it turns pink for down and try and stay in the channel . Initial targets remain as yesterday at approx 1.5535 where the lower 4hr bolly (red) sits and just outside the channel enough to get pulled back. A potential 'new' blue channel has been marked up honouring these numbers. This is also where the daily 20SMA from the 240min chart (red/blue) sits.

Price has now knocked on the Monthly pivot six times since yesterday on the 15min chart (1.2662 ish), and represents the Asian low too. Breaking this barrier should help dissolve the bullish temperament still evident in that gold Hull MA.

In the bigger picture, the fib fan lines seem to provide key resistance areas in the 1.2750 area as we discussed two weeks ago and the 1.2287 low sits above a long term fib fan line. It is going to be interesting to see how price reacts to that trap door this time around.

So far, so good. We are at the channel perimeter here, having broken the 85.4% fib fan from 1.2287 and broke back into the line from 1.2746. Prices passed the timesquare calcs from 1.2287 (gold ones) and now honouring the light blue ones (from 1.2746). This would appear to be an impulsive move and those only have one formation - 5 waves. No rush to bank this as far as I am concerned and want to see the 4th wave 'hook' into my wave formation on the short term charts first and then some sort of ending pattern, hopefully an long long Ending diagonal.

[Clivewaverider]

Visually, impulse waves are not messy, choppy, hard to see once they are complete.

I have attached a complete one and where we maybe on this current venture.

Given the state of wave 2, it may be that too many 'big boys' were left behind and the wave gets a second wave 2 for a 1-2, 1-2 count. We shall see.

[Clivewaverider]

Closed at 1.5575 for today and cleared decks; shy of target but also near S3. Great outcome even if I say so myself, which I do.

The 2 Day Hull is still gold (for up) and at some point price needs to get back into the wave for a retracement to test this impulse and both the 85.4% fibfan line (red) and channel lines need testing.

If that Hull MA does not turn pink before the wave in the short term chart turns back up again, we may actually have to go long, although I'll be looking at stochmoms for overbought readings first to sell this wave again if it is still in tact.

I'll wait for another opportunity, hopefully spilling out of asian consolidation.

Back tomorrow.

[Gnarly]

Now that price has reached a strong support level we could defenetly see a bounce here. What do you think?

[Clivewaverider]

Now that price has reached a strong support level we could defenetly see a bounce here. What do you think?

I am out now for the night and will wait to see what Asian do with today's action. No need to guess the direction Gnarly; we will be able to see what is happening in the morning.

Catch up tomorrow.

[Bignatx]

Thanks Bignatx - except for the fact that it counts and looks like a correction and shorting off the tops is how I would expect to trade these. The 4 hr bolly's at 2.5sd have been my entry points and worked well. I do not think it matters too much in corrective waves whether you long from the bottom or short from the top, as long as you do not do the reverse!

The only arguable point me thinks is whether I should hang on to my shorts from yesterday cause my counts think 1-2, 1-2 in next wave down, or whether I should bank at the line. I am gunning for 1.2535 and looking for the correction to have ended.

Oh Ive been fading all the way up. My Mentioned TL was broken last night and i added to my many many shorts lol, I have no bullish outlook on EU

[psperos]

i haven't had time to post much but am very active on twitter. Hope everyone here has been doing well.

shorts have broken from how i read this, so looking to go long eur at 1.2520 with a 2460 stop and am very bullish while above these levels. target 1.2860 for this trade

[Clivewaverider]

i haven't had time to post much but am very active on twitter. Hope everyone here has been doing well.

shorts have broken from how i read this, so looking to go long eur at 1.2520 with a 2460 stop and am very bullish while above these levels. target 1.2860 for this trade

Good to see you back Psperos - twitter down recently?

[Clivewaverider]

Price moved down last night and hit the 1.2535 target confirming that the 1.2746 top was indeed the turn and thus far price is now honouring the timesquare calcs from this source. I have now removed the gold timesquare calcs from the 1.2287 low shown yesterday. The daily chart had a turn date of the 18th June and this also seems to have hit the proverbial nail on the head. Not only is the 'wave' still in tact with the stoch moms now rolling over, but in the fibfan chart (daily2) we can see price is now delicately balanced on a ledge constructed from fan lines from both the 1.6037 high and 1.1875 low. You will see the 1.2134 line underneath it - this is the a key fibonacci ratio from the all time 1.6037 high to 0.8230 low of this pair and seems a likely target unless a 'B' wave is being played out here and a return up top is coming.

In the 240min chart, we can see price did indeed fall away from the daily bollinger and test its median 20sma yesterday. It was good to see, that notwithstanding all the volatility, this simple run home was made. We have clearly broken the red 85.4% fibfan line from the 1.2287 low but the 'wave' is not yet fully formed to the downside on this 4 hr chart - bit of work to do here, which might take a little sidewards action and time, along with rebuilding that stoch mom. 1.2572 looks like the battle line above on the timesquare calcs.

The interesting news overnight is that the gold 2 day Hull in the 30 minute chart has now turned Pink - the trend is now down after yesterday's fall. I can see both the red 85.4% fib fan line from the 1.2287 low and the blue channel lines, but I do not think price will make those this time around. Next stop is likely the 85.4% fib fan line from the 1.2746 high, somewhere around the daily pivot line.

In the short term chart, the daily wave is now completely formed. We are looking for the wave to stay in tact but get tested, allowing the 30 min and 240 min stoch moms in the previous charts to rebuild. I have drawn in a regression channel from yesterday's low to monitor this retracement and watch for a breakout. Price action was very muted in Asian trading and it seems to me that a sell at or near the daily pivot is the way to go if we get the right downward reaction (elegant entry!).

The key to this approach is to follow the daily wave in the 5 min chart - as long as one trades these in the direction of the 2 day Hull, or for returns to it from extended bolly's, one should not need to fade anything or trade against the trend. The storyboard that unfolds in the 'counts' will then be what they will be, which keeps matters intellectually interesting but not emotionally draining.

[MOZI32]

today i think i will take the risk with the break of 1.2530 down , but if it hesitate to break it i will get out at 2550 .
i feel we can get 1.24000 today it s your pink bollinger on the daily which going down Clive ? . let see friday move

Price moved down last night and hit the 1.2535 target confirming that the 1.2746 top was indeed the turn and thus far price is now honouring the timesquare calcs from this source. I have now removed the gold timesquare calcs from the 1.2287 low shown yesterday. The daily chart had a turn date of the 18th June and this also seems to have hit the proverbial nail on the head. Not only is the 'wave' still in tact with the stoch moms now rolling over, but in the fibfan chart (daily2) we can see price is now delicately balanced on a ledge constructed from fan lines from both the 1.6037 high and 1.1875 low. You will see the 1.2134 line underneath it - this is the a key fibonacci ratio from the all time 1.6037 high to 0.8230 low of this pair and seems a likely target unless a 'B' wave is being played out here and a return up top is coming.

In the 240min chart, we can see price did indeed fall away from the daily bollinger and test its median 20sma yesterday. It was good to see, that notwithstanding all the volatility, this simple run home was made. We have clearly broken the red 85.4% fibfan line from the 1.2287 low but the 'wave' is not yet fully formed to the downside on this 4 hr chart - bit of work to do here, which might take a little sidewards action and time, along with rebuilding that stoch mom. 1.2572 looks like the battle line above on the timesquare calcs.

The interesting news overnight is that the gold 2 day Hull in the 30 minute chart has now turned Pink - the trend is now down after yesterday's fall. I can see both the red 85.4% fib fan line from the 1.2287 low and the blue channel lines, but I do not think price will make those this time around. Next stop is likely the 85.4% fib fan line from the 1.2746 high, somewhere around the daily pivot line.

In the short term chart, the daily wave is now completely formed. We are looking for the wave to stay in tact but get tested, allowing the 30 min and 240 min stoch moms in the previous charts to rebuild. I have drawn in a regression channel from yesterday's low to monitor this retracement and watch for a breakout. Price action was very muted in Asian trading and it seems to me that a sell at or near the daily pivot is the way to go if we get the right downward reaction (elegant entry!).

The key to this approach is to follow the daily wave in the 5 min chart - as long as one trades these in the direction of the 2 day Hull, or for returns to it from extended bolly's, one should not need to fade anything or trade against the trend. The storyboard that unfolds in the 'counts' will then be what they will be, which keeps matters intellectually interesting but not emotionally draining.