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07-02-2012, 04:54 PM #571
07-02-2012, 05:26 PM #572
Going to call this a night and leave my longs open with the short cover under 1.2548 as earlier post. Given this low range day, going to have to call this either a Wave 4 in the wave up or a 'b' wave. If this is a'b' wave of an 'abc' then a 100% of the 'a' wave from Friday, is going to reach the 1.2860 area as per my weekend report and everyone else's summary too. For this reason, it might actually truncate, so I'll be running stops under the Higher Lows and trying to keep my short entries 2 pips under those stops. Going to be a busy day getting the short positioning right if the longs are going to take off.
Happy to have banked nearly all of the range today but something a little more exciting to wake up to would be welcome here in sunny Malvern, UK.
07-03-2012, 01:14 AM #573
Well, price has not moved too much but the SMI's have!
The 240 min SMI has been burning off its overbought position as price has slopped itself right. The 60min is primed for northbound still and the 10 min looks like it is coming back to collect it.
Note how the 2 day wave has got itself into a blue 'up' format whilst staying above the 2 day Hull and easing itself uphill. The red dotted slope it has been trudging up is (surprise, surprise) the 85.4% fib fan line of the initial 1-2 (or A-B) on the 28th. The one above is the marginot line me thinks but is again bumping into the 8 hr bolly bands which are 'defending' the 1.2746 high from the 17th June. I am sort of expecting a thrust up and then an ending diagonal as price tries to push into the previous highs that created the last down wave to 1.2406.
The 30min chart shows the target zones - plenty between here and there - hopefully an interesting day.
Last edited by Clivewaverider; 07-03-2012 at 01:18 AM.
07-03-2012, 02:07 AM #574
Starting to see that we might fail early near 1.2640/60 if we fail ... ? i will be very careful there.
above 2640/60 next level 1.2710/40 which i think it will be the much we can get .
Last edited by MOZI32; 07-03-2012 at 02:36 AM.
07-03-2012, 02:26 AM #575
It is starting to look more like a weak wave 5 rather than a C wave up isn't it. My 30min SMI has been oversold and tested since 5.30am even though the 60min had not really got going and both the 240 and daily SMI look set for negative divergence for any weak poke above Friday's high.
Originally Posted by MOZI32
We are however, bouncing just under the 91% fibfan line up from 1.2287 - if it breaks, we may get a surge and new support, and I gotta assume the market will be eyeing up the channel line and 85.4% above, but I gotta agree, it just seems too far without another consolidation ......triangle???
Have moved my short cover to 1.2565 under yesterday's low and would take a break of the 85.4% fan line to reach.
Last edited by Clivewaverider; 07-03-2012 at 02:30 AM.
07-03-2012, 02:44 AM #576
but i think we will touch that 1.2640 even if we will fail .
1.2710/ 40 will be ideal place for me to short , but i don't see a big chance to reach except some news or so .
Also on Thursday interest rate in ECB and BOE , ? Fiday NFP ?
07-03-2012, 02:53 AM #577
What you got at 1.2640 that sticks out- I got resistnace points there and R1 today but anything else you can see?
07-03-2012, 03:14 AM #578
Okay - chart has appeared - we got the same lines there..... thanks Yasser
Originally Posted by MOZI32
07-03-2012, 04:21 AM #579
1 year wave
Whilst pulling pins from my eyeballs, a quick look at the longer position:
1 year wave - have stripped down the fibonacci fans to two - the one off the 1.1875 low and one off the 1.4939 high. Of note is the recent price action since the 1.2287 low - see how hard it has worked to get where it is now.
Also note the gold weekly SMI - got divergence there since the 1.2623 pivot.
In the back of my mind are the EW counts I am playing with: believing we are in the 'c' wave within the 'C' wave of this whole leg down from 1.4939, probably in wave 4, but maybe wave 5 of 3 within that. Either way, just perhaps some are positioning themselves longer term for the next big push uphill. Do not want to be on the wrong side of that when the time comes.
Just thinking aloud.
07-03-2012, 04:40 AM #580
From the last post, I have now added in the golden fan from the 1.6037 all time high - do note the red line resistance above shown in the first chart in the zipfile.
Need to be careful with any shorts if that line is taken out to the upside.
Last edited by Clivewaverider; 07-03-2012 at 04:43 AM.
07-03-2012, 05:39 AM #581
above yellow box the red points are the targets .
but from what i see , 1.2640 could be enough or max 1.2710/30 , if hold as expected that could develop a 4 th triangle ? which should exit from the triangle by mid july as max.
07-03-2012, 06:05 AM #582
This was sort of what I was hoping for to firstly clarify EW count (triangles being penultimate moves and usually in 4th (although sometimes in B) and also to keep price near the 1.2287 low to enable a punch down through that 94.4% fib fan line from 1995 with SMI's in oversold position. Would also be an elegant entry short as the 'waves' should all narrow and waterfall out.
Originally Posted by MOZI32
07-03-2012, 06:19 AM #583
I have drawn in my triangle from the 1.2287 low through the 1.2406 and from the 1.2746 through the 1.2692, on my 30min chart for close up action. This mimics the bigger triangle we have on our bigger fan charts.
I got the triangle boundary at approx 1.2675 above and 1.2450 below (to allow for time movement too) - I'll tighten up when this upside move is complete.
If the boundaries hold, this should give us some very discreet stop levels to grid this triangle to death. Fingers crossed.
Last edited by Clivewaverider; 07-03-2012 at 06:24 AM.
07-03-2012, 06:46 AM #584
that was my plan too lets hope he will give the chance
Good luck for both of us
also for upper band of the triangle ( or we can say as a resistance line ) give a possible top 1.2830 with 1.2745 so today will be 1.2710 ( it will be a nice 3 wave abc if we get 1.2710/30 ) , so upper between ( 1.2670- 1.2710 )
Originally Posted by Clivewaverider
Last edited by MOZI32; 07-03-2012 at 07:01 AM.
07-03-2012, 07:13 AM #585
so another wave up most probably will be short wave .
and we are about to finish wave two in the 15 min chart heading for 3 4 5 as last wave up ?
Last edited by MOZI32; 07-03-2012 at 10:55 AM.
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